Brisk Wind Advisory 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

664 
FZAK52 PAFC 142333
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151300-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 mb low 440 nm South of Atka moves to 20 nm Southeast of
Togiak at 1002 mb Fri afternoon. Its front moves into Southwest 
Alaska Thu afternoon with the trailing front over the Alaska 
Peninsula through Fri afternoon. A front slips across the Western
Aleutians with a 990 mb North Pacific low Fri morning moving to 
185 nm Northwest of Attu at 997 mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-151300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151300-
Bristol Bay-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Rain and
snow.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151300-
Unalaska Bay-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151300-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151300-
Adak to Kiska-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151300-
Kiska to Attu-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-151300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
333 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 25 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 151157
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160100-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 987 mb low 270 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor moves 40 nm south of
Cape Newenham at 993 mb tonight and then moves inland Fri night. 
A front over the western Aleutians moves over the central Bering 
Fri night. The associated 993 mb low 300 nm southwest of Shemya 
tonight moves 350 nm northwest of Shemya at 966 mb Fri night.

$$

PKZ150-160100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160100-
Bristol Bay-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray near the coast. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Rain and
snow.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 30 kt then becoming SE 20 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160100-
Unalaska Bay-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160100-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160100-
Adak to Kiska-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 7 ft
building to 13 ft after midnight.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160100-
Kiska to Attu-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters
building to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-160100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 AM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Another disturbance near the Prince William Sound has brought a
fetch of moisture into Cordova and the Copper River Basin. The
radar at Middleton Island (PAIH) has a band of precipitation north
of Montague Island and an additional band that has passed through
Cordova. A decaying frontal boundary has moved into the Alaska
Range and appears to be hung up. All the while, there is a storm
south of the Chain. The latest scatterometer pass has pinged into
gale fore winds over the North Pacific with this system. Over the
Pribilof Islands there is a high but near northeast Russia there
is another low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in decent agreement with the synoptic features in
the short term and the midterm. Looking at the GFS ensemble
members there is a tight clustering with the low that is
anticipated to move from the North Pacific to the Bering Thursday.
This tight grouping also holds up as the low moves into Bristol
Bay and into Southwest. Upstream over the Western Bering the
members flock in the same general direction through the weekend.
There is more optimism with the confidence level this package
through day 4 than there has been in awhile.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through much
of the night. There is potential for MVFR conditions with snow
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Precipitation is expected from about Anchorage eastward today as
moisture continues to stream in from the southeast. An upper level
trough over Kodiak Island this morning will slide northeastward
through the day. The trough will push to upper Cook Inlet this
afternoon, then into the Copper River basin tonight. This will
push the moisture eastward, with precipitation ending along the
trough axis. The next system will approach the area from the
southwest. Precipitation will reach Kodiak Island early Thursday
morning. The precipitation will then spread northeast throughout
the day, continuing through Thursday night. For the western Kenai
Peninsula through Anchorage and the Matanuska valley, strong low
to mid level southeasterly flow will limit precipitation due to
downsloping. Also as a result of this, fairly strong winds are
expected through Turnagain Arm and possibly the upper hillside of
Anchorage. For the Susitna valley, upslope conditions will likely
produce a decent amount of snowfall late Thursday through Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Weak troughing over SOuthwest is still supporting some light snow
showers and flurries, although the bulk of the snow has moved east
and will gradually dry out region wide by this afternoon. Dry
weather persists through tonight before a much more substantial
and moisture rich low moves into Southwest Thursday through
Friday. This will bring rather widespread snow (with some mixed
rain along the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay coast) along with
blowing snow over parts of the Kuskokwim Delta. It looks to be a
rather long snow event with some parts of the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley, northern Bristol Bay, and surrounding mountains seeing
accumulations of 6-10 inches of snow. Accumulations will be much
lower along the Bristol Bay coast and Alaska Peninsula where warm
air will change snow to rain during the day Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Banal and quiescent weather over the Bering will become more
active as a North Pacific warm front and associated gale force low
move into the central and eastern Bering Sea late this afternoon
before shifting east towards Southwest Alaska through Friday.
Meanwhile, a gale force front will move toward the far western
Bering Sea/Aleutians this afternoon then stall and weaken through
Thursday night before another gale force front moves in Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long range forecast begins Friday with a broad upper level
trough situated over the Bering and a surface low over Bristol Bay
moving East/Northeast into Southwest Alaska. A large swath of
precipitation will spread across the southern half of the state
into Friday bringing warmer temperatures and snow to inland
locations with rain expected along the coast. For Southcentral,
southeast winds look to develop Friday leading to downsloping off
the Kenai and Chugach Mountains limiting the amount of
precipitation for typically downsloped areas. A shortwave ridge
builds in between systems over Southwest then Southcentral Friday
night into Saturday bringing a short break of decent weather. A
front, with parent low well west over NE Russia, will sweep
across the Bering and move into SW Alaska Saturday night before
elongating and falling apart as it goes over the Alaska Range.

Looking out into next week, long range models are showing less
uncertainty than the last couple days and are hinting at the
continuation of the upper level trough over the Bering through the
first half of the week, and hence a persistent unsettled pattern.
There are signs of a pattern change as we head into the latter
half of next week, with both the GFS and EC showing an upper level
ridge building in over the Bering/Western Alaska. This would lead
to the development of dry off shore flow over most of the state,
though depending on how far east the ridge axis sets up, could
bring down a good shot of cold air from the Arctic. Stay tuned for
details.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 414 170 173 174 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...KVP