Gale Warning 210, NWS Anchorage, AK

690 
FZAK62 PAFC 071237
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 AM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080200-
337 AM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 mb low at 61N 176E moves to 62N 176W at 973 mb Thu morning
then shifts to 58N 163W at 978 mb Fri morning. Its front pushes
into Western Alaska Wed afternoon as the trailing front moves from
the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska Thu afternoon. A 996 mb low
forms on the front near 56N 160W Thu morning and moves into the 
Gulf Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-080200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 AM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 AM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 27 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 AM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 to 30 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 AM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

506 
FZAK62 PAFC 080001
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
301 PM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081445-
301 PM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 mb low will develop near 56N 160W Thu morning then it will
move to 57N 158W Thu morning at 987 mb. A 976 mb mature low will 
move to 61N 169W Thu night then it will move to 54N 158W at 984 mb
Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
301 PM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 28 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
301 PM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 28 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
301 PM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 30 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 to 31 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
301 PM AKST Wed Mar 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 30 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 31 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

660 
FZAK62 PAFC 081243
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090145-
343 AM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 mb low at 56N 161W with a front enters the Western Gulf of
Alaska for Thu afternoon. A 971 mb low near 63N 175W dives to 54N
157W at 982 mb Fri afternoon then shifts into the North Pacific by
Sat morning. High pressure slides over the Western Aleutians and
Bering through Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ411-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 28 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 29 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 31 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 to 31 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 to 31 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

557 
FZAK62 PAFC 090012
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
312 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091330-
312 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 976 mb low at 61N 172W moves to 55N 159W at 980 mb Friday 
morning. High pressure moves over the eastern Bering Sea Saturday
morning. A weather front moves to the western Bering Sea Saturday.

$$

PKZ411-091330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
312 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
312 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 30 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
312 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 to 30 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 29 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
312 PM AKST Thu Mar 8 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 to 30 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 AM AKST Tue Mar 6 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an active pattern over the area with several upper level
waves progressing through a zonal pattern. One shortwave is
pushing through the eastern portion of Southcentral Alaska with
weak ridging in between it and a front that is moving through
southwest Alaska. The warm air is staying south of mainland Alaska
allowing for these features to bring snow with them.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are having a difficult time handling the many features
in this pattern resulting in timing and placement issues
through the mid term. However, the GFS and EC are coming into
fairly good agreement with the 00Z runs and were preferred over
the NAM and GEM. The largest area of concern is Thursday with a
low intensifying in the Gulf. The EC and GFS are bringing in a
deeper low than the NAM, resulting in stronger winds in and
around the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Cook Inlet fog will linger through the morning dropping
conditions to IFR as it moves in and out over the airport from the
water. Then VFR conditions and light winds are expected into the
afternoon when a shortwave will bring down visibilities and
ceilings. The lower conditions will last into Wednesday morning
when the shortwave will pass and snow will diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main item that has changed in this moring's forecast is that
the snow expected for Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley looks to
be a little slower moving into the area. Instead of beginning
around noon it looks like late in the afternoon with just very
light snowfall is more likely. Overnight the snow should increase
some and a little bit of accumulation. Another uncertainty is how
a lee side low (in the lee of the Alaska Range) develops and
moves this afternoon. The NAM is putting it farther north in Cook
Inlet than the GFS which is cranking up the Turnagain Arm winds.
The GFS keeps it farther south producing much less Turnagain Arm
winds. The biggest difference is the potential for snow today in
Anchorage will be better without the Turnagain winds.

There will be another shot of snow with the next shortwave
Wednesday night but once again it does not look like much. What
will be worth keeping an eye on is how a surface low develops and
strengthens in the northern Gulf Thursday and Thursday night.
This low will bring potentially heavy snowfall to coastal regions
along the north Gulf Coast at that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front and associated upper level trough will bring widespread
snow to the southwest mainland today as it quickly tracks
eastward across the region. Some localized areas of blowing snow
will likely accompany the passage of this system, however the
southerly wind direction and temperatures rising to near freezing
should preclude any significant visibility reductions due to
blowing snow. Additionally, the forward speed of the system
should help to limit any accumulations to a couple of inches. The
region will see a brief lull in activity tonight as snow tapers
off to isolated/scattered showers in brisk westerly flow under the
influence of weak shortwave ridging between systems. A strong low
moving into Norton Sound will then send another front through the
region on Wednesday, bringing another quick round of snow.
Accumulations should once again be limited to a couple of inches
for most areas, however there is potential for localized higher
amounts along the Aleutian and Alaska range into Wednesday night
as the front stalls overhead and a possible deformation zone sets
up to the northwest of a deep triple point low developing in the
vicinity of Kodiak Island. Will have to hammer out those details
in the next few periods.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An active weather pattern will continue over the Bering for the
next few days. A stationary frontal boundary extending from the
southeast Bering back through the Western Aleutians will bring a
rain/snow mix to a wide swath of the central Bering today,
including the Pribilof Islands. This boundary will then begin to
move back towards the coast tonight as a warm front as the next
low begins to take shape, with a cold front sweeping across the
Bering from west to east on Wednesday. This will usher in a
period of widespread snow showers in cold advection and deep
westerly flow heading into Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The beginning of the mid term forecast on Wednesday evening marks
the point where it gets challenging. Synoptically speaking, most
models are in agreement with having a parent low over the Northern
Bering and an intense jet rounding the base of a positively
tilted trough across the western Aleutians. Models have been
having a difficult time honing in on the details of how quickly
a shortwave rounding the trough base will help to eject out a
triple point low in the western gulf of Alaska. The GFS remains
steadfast on its path of shooting out a low north of Kodiak and
moving it into Prince William Sound. The NAM, as well as the
ECMWF, have all been farther east in previous runs, but continue
to sharpen the trough and shift the low farther west with time.
This means that they are converging on the GFS solution. The
details here are what matter most, as the low placement shifts by
50 or so nautical miles each run. That means the difference
between stronger Turnagain arm winds across the area and a low
snow event, or weak winds / cross barrier flow, and much more
meaningful snowfall amounts. Even with the uncertainty, we should
see some snow during this time and we did bring the forecast
closer to likely PoPs in that period. However, it is too early to
estimate true snow potential Wednesday afternoon into the evening
hours with reasonable confidence. On the heels of this storm
system is the next that will move in at the end of the week.
Again, this is all from the trough that helped to kick out the
triple point low mid week. The upper level jet will intensify on
the western periphery of the trough as it taps into cold arctic
air. As the trough tilts negatively, another low is expected to
fire out ahead of it. Again, the details matter the most, but
longer range guidance is showing low pressure on the order of
960MB within the vicinity of Prince William Sound, bringing the
chances for more snow this weekend. Despite March and April being
the driest months of the year (climatologically), mother nature is
giving that statistic a run for its money.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...175 177 178 185 411 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...SS