Gale Warning 176, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Feb 16, 2018, 3:11 PM AKST (00:11 UTC)

Expired

Feb 17, 2018, 4:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

133 
FZAK52 PAFC 170011
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171300-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front over the western Bering moves to the central Bering tonight 
then moves to a position from St Lawrence Island southeastward to a 
1015 mb low 120 NM west of Sitkinak Sunday. A 1000 mb low moves north
to 150 NM southeast of Atka tonight. This low moves north northwest 
crossing the Gulf of Anadyr late Sat night. A Strong front approaches
the western Aleutians Sat night and central Aleutians and southwest 
Bering Sunday.

$$

PKZ150-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft 
after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
From the Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt 
after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft except 13 ft from the 
Shumagin Islands E. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171300-
Bristol Bay-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after 
midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 30 kt becoming 
SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after 
midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 55 kt through bays and passes. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Gusts to 55 kt through bays and passes 
early. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171300-
Unalaska Bay-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to SE 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft building to 22 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171300-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171300-
Adak to Kiska-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft Bering side...25 ft Pacific side. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171300-
Kiska to Attu-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt increasing to 
40 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt. 
Seas 20 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 35 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 16, 4:49 AM AKST, 10 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper levels over Alaska are dominated by a longwave trough/ridge
couplet with the ridge axis located over Southcentral extending
north into Northern Alaska and the trough axis located over the
Eastern Bering Sea. A triple point low is located over the
Northern Bering with an associated front sweeping across the
western mainland bringing snow to the Kuskokwim River Valley and
south into the Bristol Bay area. Over Southcentral, low stratus
and patchy fog persists throughout the Cook Inlet area even as a
cirrus shield spreads east into the region. Further west, a strong
gale force low is barreling east across the Western Aleutians and
Bering, bringing strong winds and heavy rain/snow to the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in lock step with the overall pattern as ridging
sets up over central and eastern portions of the mainland,
diverting the main storm track to the south while an active
pattern persists over southwest and the Bering. There is some
disagreement with an upper level trough moving through on Sunday
with some models keeping the trough intact and further north,
bringing snow to southcentral, while other solutions have the low
splitting off to the south over the Gulf, which would keep most
of the region dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Stratus will continue to be the main issue this morning as
low level moisture is trapped under an elevated subsidence
inversion due to ridging aloft. Northerly winds are helping to
keep the boundary layer somewhat mixed, limiting fog development,
but LIFR Cigs will be present through the late morning with little
forcing to clear things up. Cigs should lift some later this
afternoon with increasing solar insolation this time of year, but
ridging builds back in tonight leading to the potential for more
fog and stratus, though offshore northerly flow may dry things out
enough to keep this from happening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper trough just west of Kodiak Island will close off into an
upper low over the Gulf around noon today as it squeezes
underneath the upper high over Southcentral. This low will then
rapidly move east-southeast across the Gulf this afternoon and
evening. Precipitation with this system will fall over Kodiak this
morning, with the precipitation shield possibly getting as far
north as Homer. The upper ridge will then re-assert itself over
southern Alaska. This should provide enough northerly flow to
clear out the stubborn cloud deck over the Cook inlet area.
Another trough will push into the area from the west on Sunday,
with precipitation reaching Kodiak Island in the morning. There
are some model differences in how this system is handled Sunday
afternoon. The GFS and NAM are repeating what today's system is
doing, in splitting the energy and closing off a low over the
Gulf. The other models bring enough of a trough across the
Southcentral mainland to bring some precipitation inland. For now,
the forecast splits the difference with some "chance" and "slight
chance" Pops over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The active weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend,
starting with the ongoing system tracking further inland over the
southwest Mainland this morning. Snow has remained the dominant
precipitation type for much of the mainland, and is expected to
persist through this afternoon. However, there is a chance for
some rain to mix in with the snow south of King Salmon today.
Some gusty winds will develop for a few locations on the Bristol
Bay coast. However, coverage remains limited for any mention of
blowing snow in the forecast zones.

Otherwise, another short-wave ridge will build over the region for
tonight through Saturday time frame. The next system that will
affect the area will track into the southwest Mainland late
Saturday night into Sunday, with winds and precipitation potential
rising once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A series of low pressure systems will continue to affect the
region through the weekend. As the initial Bering Sea low exits
to the north this morning, the next system and its associated
front will quickly stall over the western portion of the
Aleutians and Bering. This system will bring gale to storm force
winds mainly over the central Aleutians and Bering today before
diminishing as the front weakens. The second system of interest
tracks into the eastern Aleutians from the north Pacific overnight
tonight into tomorrow morning and continues to progress north-
northeastward into Sunday before pushing inland.

Quickly following on its heals, the next system developing south
of Shemya will intensify as a 970mb low on Sunday, with another
front arcing east and southward through the west central
Aleutians. Each front will bring an increase in precipitation
coverage and intensity, as well as increasing winds, most of which
will be gale to occasional storm force.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The remnants of the front will push through south central Alaska
Sunday night resulting in increased chances for snow. A low will
be over the north Gulf Coast, but has been the theme of this
current pattern, this low will be deflected to the southeast by
the high pressure over the eastern mainland and Yukon Territory.
Out over the Bering Sea as one low is exiting to the northwest,
another is sliding north across the western Aleutians Sunday
night. The associated front pushes into the northern Bering Sea
arcing south across the eastern Aleutians. The warm front will
push northeast across southwest Alaska by Monday with the
potential for rain or a rain snow mix over southwest Alaska for
the early part of next week. The warm air is progged to push well
inland over the upper level ridge to the Brooks Range through
Tuesday and Wednesday, thus a continuation of this wetter and
warmer trend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 177.
Gale Warning 132 150 155 165 170-176 178-181 185 352 411-414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...SA

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
110 PM AKST FRI FEB 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     SNOW             DILLINGHAM              59.06N 158.53W
02/16/2018  E4.0 INCH                           AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

1249 PM     SNOW             ILIAMNA                 59.78N 154.87W
02/16/2018  E5.0 INCH                           AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            FLIGHT SERVICE ESTIMATED 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL LATE
            THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

1000 AM     SNOW             N KING SALMON           58.74N 156.54W
02/16/2018  M4.0 INCH                           AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL FROM 11 PM THURSDAY NIGHT TO 930
            FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

DPERCY

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2018Every gale warning in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.