Storm Warning 44, NWS Anchorage, AK

360 
FZAK52 PAFC 180039
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-181400-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 mb low 320 nm West of St Paul Island moves to the Chukchi 
Sea at 994 mb Sun night. The associated front pushes over 
Northwest Alaska with the trailing front over the Eastern 
Aleutians through Mon afternoon. A 962 mb North Pacific low 
moves to 420 nm West of St Matthew Island at 967 mb by Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-181400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-181400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt except S 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-181400-
Bristol Bay-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas in 
ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-181400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-181400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-181400-
Unalaska Bay-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-181400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-181400-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 50 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-181400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-181400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-181400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-181400-
Adak to Kiska-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side...31 ft 
Pacific side. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-181400-
Kiska to Attu-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Bering side, seas 17 ft. Pacific side,
seas 18 ft building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain and snow showers.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ179-181400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-181400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-181400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-181400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
339 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 45 kt becoming 
S 35 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt. 
Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A high amplitude long wave ridge is currently over the western
third of the mainland and moving east over southcentral bringing
rather tranquil weather to the southern half of the state.
Clearing skies and rather weak offshore winds have lead to the
development of low stratus and fog over the Knik Arm and Anchorage
Bowl early this morning. Further west, satellite imagery shows a
broad cirrus shield advecting north and east over the top of the
ridge out ahead of a longwave trough which is located over the
western Bering Sea. A strong southerly jet is currently moving
over the central and eastern Aleutians supporting a surface low in
the Bering. A front out ahead of the low is sweeping east across
the island chain bringing storm force winds and heavy rain to
places like Dutch Harbor and Akutan.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement through the mid-term as a front
moves across SW Alaska Sunday morning then falls apart as it
reaches southcentral by Sunday night. All models have now come
into agreement that as the front reaches southcentral the main
lobe of energy will split off from the trough and form a weak
surface low in the Gulf, keeping most of the precipitation well
south of southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Clear skies and weak flow have led to the re-development
of low stratus over the Knik Arm early this morning, which has
advected into the Anchorage Bowl, staying mostly over south and
west Anchorage so far. Webcams show the stratus to be patchy in
nature so only expect intermittent LIFR conditions over the
terminal this morning before clearing up by noon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level ridge will slowly move eastward across southern
Alaska through tonight. The low level flow is fairly weak inland,
and some fog is expected, especially near Cook Inlet. On Sunday
an upper level trough will move through the ridge. This will bring
rain to Kodiak Island beginning around noon and ending some time
in the evening. Precipitation chances are less further north, but
there is at least a slight chance Sunday evening for the Cook
inlet area through the Susitna Valley. This system will rapidly
move east, exiting into Canada Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A high amplitude upper level pattern is in the midst of developing
this morning as ridging aloft builds over Southwest Alaska. Dry
offshore flow will be dominant today and this evening before the
warm front over the Bering Sea moves inland tonight and moves
eastward through Sunday. Enough cold air will be in place for at
least some snow across most of Southwest Alaska although rain will
likely mix in, especially along the immediate coast line and in
the lee of the large mountain ranges. The heaviest snow
accumulations will be from Dillingham north and west where 2 to 5
inches of snowfall is possible. The front clears the Alaska Range
Sunday evening with dry conditions remaining through the daytime
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The storm track will remain over the Bering Sea for the
foreseeable future as a strong gale force front this morning moves
east toward the Southwest Alaska coast. Gusts along the Eastern
Aleutians will reach into the low 60 MPH range, especially in
favored gaps with southerly winds.

A large gale force low (with some storm force winds mixed in)
over the Western Aleutians will move into the Bering Sunday and
will remain over the Bering Sea through Monday as it slowly tracks
northward toward the Bering Strait. Long fetch southwest winds
behind the low will support sea states as high as 30-35 feet on
Monday and Monday evening over the Bering Sea outer waters.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Long term period starts off with increased uncertainty due to
models suddenly diverging with the movement of the low across
Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. Most reasonable
approach to Sunday night through Monday is to nudge precipitation
chances down over most of Southcentral Alaska and increase them
some in the Gulf. The Bering Sea storm at that same time frame
seems to still be on track with a deep low in the western Bering
Sea and general south to southwest flow over most of the Bering
Sea into Southwest mainland Alaska. After Monday, there is still a
high likelihood that there will be a general progressive pattern
over that region with a high amplitude upper level ridge building
over the mainland part of the state which will usher in warmer
temperatures. This ridge looks to get displaced later in the week
by a trough and hence the progressive pattern. The big
uncertainty remains the timing of these features as models have
not been consistent with one another or even with themselves on a
run-to-run basis. So what does all this mean for the sensible
weather next week? A warm up for the middle of the week with a
chance of precipitation. Precipitation type may be mixed for
inland areas in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska mid-week so
that will be something to keep an eye on.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms: 173 175
Gales: 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 174 176-181 185 411-414 .

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...EZ