Gale Warning 148, NWS Anchorage, AK

499 
FZAK51 PAFC 062123 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

Update to zone 125

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-070415-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1001 mb low 105 nm northeast of Kodiak City will move to 60 nm
southwest of Middleton Island at 1003 mb this afternoon then it 
will move to the northeastern Gulf Wed morning. High pressure 
persists in the Gulf through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ119-070415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight.  Seas
9 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-070415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow with rain. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-070415-
Resurrection Bay-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray after 
midnight.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-070415-
Prince William Sound-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-070415-
Port Valdez-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-070415-
Valdez Narrows-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the 
morning. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-070415-
Valdez Arm-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the 
morning. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-070415-
Passage Canal-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ130-070415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ131-070415-
Barren Islands East-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-070415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-070415-
Chiniak Bay-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-070415-
Marmot Bay-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-070415-
Shelikof Strait-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-070415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing
spray in the morning. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-070415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-070415-
Kachemak Bay-
1223 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

782 
FZAK51 PAFC 070011
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-071315-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 mb low near Middleton Island weakens to an open trough 
along the northern Gulf of Alaska Wednesday. High pressure builds 
over the southern Gulf through Thursday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-071315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River Delta. 
Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River
Delta.  Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-071315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-071315-
Resurrection Bay-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-071315-
Prince William Sound-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-071315-
Port Valdez-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-071315-
Valdez Narrows-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-071315-
Valdez Arm-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-071315-
Passage Canal-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-071315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-071315-
Barren Islands East-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-071315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-071315-
Chiniak Bay-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-071315-
Marmot Bay-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-071315-
Shelikof Strait-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-071315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-071315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-071315-
Kachemak Bay-
311 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A surface low near the western Alaska Peninsula and its associated
weather front to the north and east are spreading moisture into
Bristol Bay and the western Gulf. There is a fairly distinct
boundary frontal boundary with above freezing temps(generally
rain) over Bristol Bay and below freezing temps with pressure
driven drainage flows inland. The King Salmon NEXRAD shows
precipitation spreading north across Bristol Bay. East to
northeast winds are also increasing ahead of the advancing
low/front across Bristol Bay and Southwest Alaska. Rain has spread
to Kodiak Island with the front and clouds are streaming north
across the Gulf and The Southcentral Mainland. Strong outflow
winds are still occurring in a few places across the northern
Gulf, particularly Thompson Pass/Keystone Canyon, Valdez Narrows,
and the Copper River Delta.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in fairly good agreement and reasonable through
Wednesday across Southcentral. Significant model differences arise
with the low complex over the western and central Bering
Sea/Aleutians Tuesday night and Wednesday. Confidence is fairly
low on exact placement of lows, however the swath of gales over
the eastern Aleutians/eastern Bering are fairly consistent
regardless of model solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
evening. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected with snow beginning
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A shift in the pattern is ongoing as a warm front lifts into the
North Gulf Coast. Clouds streaming out ahead of the front have
already infiltrated Southcentral. As the front closes off into a
low, it will slow down and stall south of Prince William Sound.
Light snow will spread inland with the highest values along the
Kenai Peninsula, diminishing as the front moves northward.
Anchorage may see an inch of snow or so, with slightly higher
amounts on the Hillside. Snow will be very fluffy and low density,
so some blowing snow behind vehicles may be an issue for the
morning commute. The low will weaken and drift east Tuesday with
weak offshore flow helping to dry the region back out although
flurries/light snow showers will be possible through Tuesday
before clearing out Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A front draped across the southwest mainland will continue to
move north this evening as the associated upper level
trough/surface low tracks north through the eastern Bering. Warmer
air behind the front will push north and override cold air
trapped at the surface leading to isentropic lift and a wide area
of precipitation over much of the mainland. Warmer air will erode
the cold surface air for locations on the AKPEN and on the leeward
side of the Aleutian Range, leading to rain mixing in with snow
for King Salmon and Iliamna. Further west along the Bristol Bay
coast, cold northerly flow at the surface will persist through
most of the night keeping precipitation all snow for places like
Dillingham and inland areas north and west of Dillingham.
Therefore, 6-8 inches of snow is expected near the coast while up
to 10-12" can be expected further inland north and west of
Dillingham by tomorrow morning. Moderate snow combined with strong
winds will lead to areas of blowing snow and visibilities as low
as 1/2 mi tonight. Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory remains
on track through early tomorrow morning.

The front will elongate and weaken as it continues north and west
into the Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta tonight, so
generally expect lighter snow accumulation. The front will stall
in the Kuskokwim Valley which may lead to a longer period of light
snow. Blowing snow can also be expected along the Kuskokwim
Delta, though visibilities are not expected to fall as much as in
Bristol Bay due to the lighter nature of the falling snow. A few
showers will linger through Tuesday, though generally expect
conditions to dry out. Precipitation will taper off by Tuesday
afternoon as the low continues tracking north out of the area and
a ridge of high pressure builds in by Wednesday, leading to
overall drier conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A surface low will continue to track north of the Eastern
Aleutians tonight bringing an end to rain and snow showers. As
the associated front lifts away from the island chain, an area of
snow showers will pass through the Pribilofs. By Tuesday
afternoon, the pattern becomes a bit more amplified as an upper
level trough digs south across the western Aleutians inducing a
ridge over the eastern Aleutians. A strong southerly jet will
develop ahead of the trough and move north across the central
Aleutians bringing gale force winds, warm temperatures, and a
steady stream of rain, resembling an atmospheric river. The steady
stream of moisture will slowly shift east from Adak to Dutch
Harbor through the day on Wednesday and eventually to the eastern
Aleutians/AKPEN by Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Wednesday evening through Monday night)...
We will be returning to a weak outflow pattern, clear skies and
lighter winds, except for gaps of the north gulf coast where
gustier winds can be expected in favored areas. From there, the
pattern amplifies through the weekend as a front moves into the
Gulf of Alaska through the Aleutians. Guidance is in better
agreement today with the setup of the progressive pattern. It
looks active, a series of fronts will traverse the area through
next week. The jet stream stays mostly south of our area, only
briefly impinging up on the mainland, so a big warm-up is not in
the cards at this point. On the flip side, because of the storm
track and cold air in place, it appears as if the fronts will be
numerous but just clipping Southcentral each time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 161.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120 130 131 138 170 172>174 180.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 127.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...ML