Small Craft Advisory 113, NWS Anchorage, AK

392 
FZAK52 PAFC 061228
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-070115-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 mb low 90 nm northeast of St. Paul exits into the northeastern
Bering this afternoon. A 982 mb low moves to 145 nm southwest of 
Adak this afternoon then moves over Adak at 977 mb Wed morning. This 
low moves to 250 nm northeast of Shemya at 972 mb Wed night then 
exits the western Bering near Kamchatka Thu morning. A 990 mb North 
Pacific low will move toward the central Aleutians Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-070115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-070115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt except S 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 14 ft except 7 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ160-070115-
Bristol Bay-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-070115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt except SE 25 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-070115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-070115-
Unalaska Bay-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-070115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft building to 17 ft after midnight.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-070115-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-070115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-070115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-070115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-070115-
Adak to Kiska-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-070115-
Kiska to Attu-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-070115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-070115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-070115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-070115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 22 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

953 
FZAK52 PAFC 070000
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-071245-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 mb low near Saint Matthew Island moves north and dissipates
tonight. A 980 mb low 190 nm south of ADAK moves to 320 nm north 
of Shemya at 976 mb Wednesday night. This low then moves west and 
weakens to 984 mb Thursday afternoon. A secondary 988 mb low moves
to 120 nm southeast of Adak Thursday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-071245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-071245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt except S 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 15 ft except 7 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt except SE 25 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 18 ft except 10 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-071245-
Bristol Bay-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-071245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt except SE 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7
ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt except SE 30 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-071245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-071245-
Unalaska Bay-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-071245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft building to 16 ft after midnight.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-071245-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-071245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-071245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-071245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-071245-
Adak to Kiska-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-071245-
Kiska to Attu-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-071245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-071245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-071245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ185-071245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
300 PM AKST Tue Feb 6 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft building to 14
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Ridging originating from a persistent upper level high over
northwest Alaska continues to weaken this morning, giving way to a
ridge featuring much warmer conditions over the Gulf. As the more
moisture-laden airmass creeps its way northward, the end of cold
and clear weather will come along with it. Meanwhile out west, an
upper level low centered over the Western Aleutians near Amchitka
continues to support a feed of moisture over the central and
western Bering, much if which is emanating from a strengthening
low headed for the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians. This
low and its highly anticipated development of a triple-point low
to its east over the western Gulf, will be the primary players
for mainland Alaska's first widespread precipitation event in
quite some time.

Much of the rest of mainland Alaska will get one final night of
clear, cold, quiet weather. Nearly all inland locations are at or
below zero, while coastal communities are broadly in the teens and
20s. The winds remain a factor through Thompson Pass and the
Valdez Narrows, courtesy of a mass of built up cold air in the
Copper River Basin that has nowhere to go except through those
outlets. However, many of the other gaps, including the Matanuska
Valley, Broad Pass, and Seward, are getting a break and seeing
relatively light winds.

Transient fog has developed around the Anchorage area this
morning, and it is forecast to be variably dense through the
first few daylight hours before dissipating.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in surprisingly good agreement given the general
complexity of the upcoming weather across Southern Alaska. They
all depict the low currently approaching the Alaska
Peninsula/Eastern Aleutians to continue to track northward across
that area today and to the east of the Pribilofs Monday night.
Meanwhile, all generally agree on the track of the secondary
triple point low tracking east of Kodiak Monday night, then
turning eastward around Middleton Island Tuesday afternoon. Thus,
broad agreement lends lots of confidence to the forecast.
Unfortunately, with the next round of precipitation headed for
Southern Alaska, many forecast details are not anywhere near as
clear-cut. Some of the models indicate there will be downsloping
cutting into snow totals for areas like east Anchorage and the
Matanuska Valley, while others don't have nearly as much
downsloping. There remains some uncertainty as to how quickly the
system can moisten up the atmosphere, as it remains still very
dry in most levels this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Shallow fog has developed over the Anchorage area this
morning. It appears to be transient, but will briefly bring
conditions to as low as LIFR when it's at its densest. It will
dissipate late this morning. Snow moves into the area early
Tuesday morning, and will be heaviest through the morning commute
before tapering to off-and-on snow showers for the rest of the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The longwave pattern features ridging that spans from the North
Slope southward over the East Pacific. Meanwhile, a new system
will continue to move towards Kodiak eventually displacing the
ridge to the east. This morning across the Mat-Su Valleys, expect
single digit or sub-zero temperatures while Glennallen and Copper
Center are near negative 40. Anchorage is chilly but fog has
developed over portions of the metro area. Today a frontal
boundary will lift north through the Gulf of Alaska. Kodiak City
can expect rain today but as the system tracks northeastward and
towards Middleton Island the thermal profiles for locations in
Kenai indicate a snow event which will begin this evening. Tuesday
snow will fall inland reaching Turnagain Pass and Anchorage. For
now, expecting snow to begin in Anchorage early Tuesday morning.
The deformation band associated with this low shears apart and it
is unlikely that Anchorage will receive much more than an inch.
But any amount of precipitation is potential for commuting
impacts. The Chugach Mountains near Prince William Sound and the
Kenai Mountains will be the big winners from this event. Towards
the end of the forecast period an inverted trough develops at the
surface over Prince William Sound which justified keeping higher
pops late in the period for PWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Monday through Tuesday)...
The prolonged period of dry weather will come to an end across
Southwest Alaska as a gale force low pressure system lifts
northward across the southern Alaska Peninsula and into the
eastern Bering Sea today. Snow and blowing snow will develop
across much of Bristol Bay this afternoon as an occluded front
approaches from the south. Strong low level southeast flow will
enhance snowfall along the hills and mountains north and west of
Dillingham. While the winds will advect warmer air into the
region, the bulk of much warmer air will follow the triple point
into the Gulf of Alaska. With cold antecedent conditions, much of
the warmer air will initially ride over the cold dome in place,
enhancing lift and snowfall. Temperatures look cold enough to
remain all snow, with the exception of along the Alaska Peninsula
south of Pilot Point. Northerly winds out ahead of the front
combined with the cold surface temperatures will lead to very low
visibilities in blowing snow from Dillingham north and west, so a
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this afternoon and
evening.

The front will elongate and weaken as it continues north and west
to the Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta tonight, so generally
expect lighter snow accumulation. The front will stall in the
Kuskokwim Valley which may lead to a longer period of light snow.
Blowing snow can also be expected along the Kuskokwim Delta,
though do not expect visibilities to fall as much as in Bristol
Bay due to the lighter nature of the falling snow. A few showers
will linger through Tuesday, though generally expect to dry out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Monday through Tuesday)...
The Eastern Aleutians is in a sweet spot of deformation on the
back side of the aforementioned low, so steady rain will continue
through the morning hours. Colder air will wrap in behind the low
this afternoon and evening which will lead to a transition to a
rain/snow mix as showers linger. Further west, a series of short-
waves ejecting out of the North Pacific trough, will affect the
Aleutians the next couple days with stronger winds and rain. There
is quite a bit of uncertainty in the storm tracks, but it does
look like the lows will consolidate into a single deeper low
tracking into the Bering Sea by mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Tuesday evening through Sunday night)...
Our extended forecast begins mid-week with a weak low pressure and
front in the Gulf, bringing snow to the north Gulf Coast, and
exiting to the east. For interior locations this means clouds and
possibly some very light snow, followed by clear and cold
conditions for later this week. Out west, the next active feature
of the pattern is a longwave trough, weakening and broadening
over Kamchatka. Both it and the blocking ridge are decaying from
their current state. A frontal boundary and deep southerly flow
will exist across the Bering Sea.

Into the longer term forecast, guidance quickly devolves into a
jumbled mess. As the two previous anchors in the longwave pattern,
the blocking high and Kamchatka trough, break down, guidance
struggles with a very active east Asian jet, and where exactly to
direct that energy. The big differences in the deterministic
models have to do with how they handle the blocking high pressure.
The ECMWF re-establishes it over the Bering Strait region, keeping
Southcentral AK in a cold outflow pattern, while the GFS wants to
build in a ridge from the sub-tropics getting us into a chinook
pattern. Literally opposites. The extended guidance from WPC will
utilize an ensemble blend for the forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 161.
MARINE...Gales: 119 127 131 138 150 155 160 165 180 351 414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 127 128 139 160.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
LONG TERM...ML