Gale Warning 118, NWS Anchorage, AK

263 
FZAK62 PAFC 161237
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170215-
337 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the western Bering moves to the central Bering
tonight and reaches the eastern Bering Sat night. A complex 1003 
mb low develops near 51N 174W tonight and moves to 56N 175W Sat
afternoon at 997 mb and then moves into the Gulf of Anadyr Sat
night. A front approaches the western Aleutians Sat night.

$$

PKZ411-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 to 25 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 AM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

357 
FZAK62 PAFC 170011
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171400-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the western Bering moves to the central Bering
tonight then moves to a position from St Lawrence Island 
southeastward to a 1015mb low near 53N 171W on Sunday. A 1000 mb 
low moves north to 53N 171W tonight. This low moves north northwest 
crossing the Gulf of Anadyr late Sat night. A Strong front approaches
the western Aleutians Saturday night and central Aleutians and 
southwest Bering Sunday.

$$

PKZ411-171400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 20 to 30 kt 
after midnight. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt 
after midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow.
.SAT...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
311 PM AKST Fri Feb 16 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 10 to 25 kt 
after midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

713 
FZAK62 PAFC 171311
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180245-
411 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front in the eastern Bering moves inland tonight. A 970 mb low
forms near 47N 172E Sun morning and moves to 56N 174E Sun night at
965 mb with an associated front extending into the eastern Bering.

$$

PKZ411-180245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
411 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
411 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 34 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
411 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 ft building to 12 to 18 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
411 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

744 
FZAK62 PAFC 171548 AAA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
648 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

Updated 414

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180530-
648 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front in the eastern Bering moves inland tonight. A 970 mb low
forms near 47N 172E Sun morning and moves to 56N 174E Sun night at
965 mb with an associated front extending into the eastern Bering.

$$

PKZ411-180530-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
648 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180530-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
648 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 34 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180530-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
648 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 ft building to 12 to 18 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180530-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
648 AM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

928 
FZAK62 PAFC 180028
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
328 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181345-
328 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 997 mb low at 57N 179W moves to the Chukchi Sea at 994 mb Sun 
night. The associated front pushes over Northwest Alaska with the
trailing front over the Eastern Aleutians through Mon afternoon. 
A 962 mb North Pacific moves to 59N 175E at 967 mb by Mon 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-181345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
328 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft building to 9 to 17 ft in the afternoon. 
Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 31 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
328 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft building 
to 19 to 25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 32 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 25 to 35 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
328 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in 
the afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
328 PM AKST Sat Feb 17 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

963 
FZAK62 PAFC 181256
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-190230-
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 960 mb low at 46N 171E moves to 57N 173E at 964 mb tonight. The
low then moves over the Gulf of Anadyr Mon night at 970 mb. A 995
mb low forms near 46N 173E Mon night.

$$

PKZ411-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft building 
to 11 to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft building to 24 to 33
ft in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 31 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 34 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-190230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 AM AKST Sun Feb 18 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKST Thu Feb 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level trough over eastern mainland Alaska continues to
push off to the east towards the ALCAN border this morning. Snow
has tapered off over Southcentral while light snow continues over
the Copper River Basin. An upper level ridge is building in
behind the departing trough leading to clearing skies with
widespread areas of fog developing over southwest Alaska and more
recently over the Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula. Further
west, an upper level trough is digging NE across the Western
Aleutians with an associated surface low and frontal system
sweeping across the Central Bering towards the southwest mainland,
bringing gale force winds and rain to the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have come into decent agreement with the evolution and
progression of the longwave pattern over the next couple of days,
with high pressure building in over the central and eastern
portions of the mainland and a more progressive and stormy
pattern out west. Recent model runs have steered away from a more
northward storm track as systems move from the Bering into the
Gulf, which would deflect storms to the south keeping
southcentral in a high and dry pattern heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Snow has tapered off overnight as the longwave trough
pushes east, though a rapidly building ridge behind it will trap
low level moisture leading to IFR/LIFR Cigs and the likely
development of fog by 15Z. With fog already developing over Kenai,
conditions are obviously ripe for widespread development over the
Cook Inlet area and into the Anchorage bowl. The densest fog may
take some time to develop this morning as left over low stratus
will slow cooling at the surface, but the building ridge combined
with recent precipitation will eventually take over and should
lead to widespread fog development this morning before lifting in
the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper trough and associated surface front will clear the Copper
River Basin this afternoon. Snow and snow showers will likely
continue with these features as it pushes east. Low stratus and
fog will likely hang around upper Cook Inlet, Anchorage Bowl, and
MAT-SU Valleys this morning with improvement this afternoon. Areas
of stratus and fog could redevelop again tonight across the
Anchorage Bowl and perhaps as far as Palmer in the Mat Valley as
light winds and upper ridging strengthen surface inversions.
Brisk/strong outflow winds will develop over the eastern Kenai
Peninsula/Western Prince William Sound and the North Gulf Coast
this morning and should peak this afternoon before weakening
overnight.

A surface front spreads rain to the western Gulf tonight. The
north progression of the front should stall Friday as a strong
triple point low develops and pulls the front southeast. So
precipitation, mostly snow, will likely only make it as far north
as the Kenai Peninsula before the surface low carries it
southeast. Pressure gradients will once again build along the
Gulf coast and give rise to another round of outflow winds Friday
night.

 &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Some areas of lingering cloudy conditions and fog will persist
through this morning, as the residual moisture from the previous
system remains over some areas which cleared out overnight prior
to fog developing. Our focus quickly shifts to an approaching
front pushing into the southwest Mainland starting this afternoon.
This system will weaken as it progresses eastward through Friday,
bringing widespread precipitation to much of the area and mainly
in the form of snow. However, frontal speed will temporally limit
any snowfall accumulation potential, with just light amounts
expected. By Friday evening a weak area of high pressure will
build in over the mainland, and bring another round of clearing
skies and drier conditions through Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A 979mb low will continue to track northward through the central
Bering through tonight bringing widespread gusty winds and
precipitation to much of the Bering and Aleutians through this
evening. The associated front currently stretching from the
Pribilof Islands through the eastern Aleutians will continue to
spread gusty winds and precipitation over the eastern Bering/
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula into Friday morning. Right on its
heels is another gale force system working its way into the
western Aleutians by this afternoon, and spreading strong gusty
winds and precipitation eastward into the central Bering/Aleutians
overnight tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
As a decaying front across the Anchorage area slides East on
Friday afternoon, only a slight decrease to temperatures and
increase of clouds are to be expected. Temperatures aloft will
cool through that time but begin to rebound into the weekend and
beyond. Skies are expected to clear out by the early weekend. Now
that we are back into the season of the sun helping to aid in
warmth, daytime temperatures will quickly rise. Diurnal swings of
20 degrees, or more, are not out of the question. Interior and
river valley areas of the Copper River Basin should see night
temperatures drop well below zero as any warmth radiates out
overnight. Clouds will increase Sunday afternoon with an
approaching front from the West. However, guidance has a harder
time figuring out how far the front will move to the east. If it
has enough oomph to overtake the ridging over the area, we may see
snow Monday afternoon into the evening hours. The GFS is showing
the strongest of these signals. The EC is indicating a much weaker
front with light snow, and the Canadian is showing nothing.
Regardless, the nature of ridging and troughing will continue
progressively through this weekend and into next.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 181.
         Storm Warning 175-177 413.
 Gale Warning 165 170 173 174 178-181 185 352 411 412 414.&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...SS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1016 AM AKST THU FEB 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 AM     SNOW             5 ESE WASILLA           61.56N 149.32W
02/15/2018  M2.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1012 AM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.72N 148.88W
02/15/2018  M2.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW BEGAN AT 345 PM. DURATION WAS 6+ HRS.

&&

LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
152 PM AKST THU FEB 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     SNOW             POTTER VALLEY           61.05N 149.79W
02/15/2018  M2.3 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

&&

KH