Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
804 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Allowed heat advisory to expire. Developing thunderstorms are
adding to the cloud cover and temperatures are dropping in areas
receiving rain. Drier spots across south central SD will slowly
cool after sunset.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Made a few tweaks to evening pops based on latest HRRR and current
radar returns. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for the
overnight period with two rounds of storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Convection remains the main challenge in the short range.
Instability continues to increase across the region this afternoon as
diabatic heating continues. However, deep layer shear is probably
slackening as the mid level westerlies retreat to the north this
afternoon and evening. Also, heights continue to build
across the region with warming temps aloft. Meanwhile, ll shear will
remain decent through tonight given continued llj, and its diurnal
increase this evening. The CAMS and non-CAMS are at odds concerning
convective development in the northeast toward evening. The HRRR is
somewhat aggressive, perhaps picking up on outflow boundaries left
behind by the morning convection.  Non-CAMS favor activity
developing further north, or not at all over the northeast this
evening. Later in the evening there is fair agreement that an MCS
will fire up over the High Plains, and then head northeast
overnight. The main threat with the possible early evening
convection will be hail and heavy rain, and the late night activity
should favor gusty winds. Nonetheless, confidence in how all this
will play out is fairly low attm.  Temperatures will be above normal
through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Mid level ridge will expand from the eastern conus, back west to the
central conus during the period. The ridge does get knocked down
some by passing s/w energy late in the weekend, into early next
week. That is likely the best opportunity for any meaningful pcpn
during the period, since prior to that the strong mid level ridge
should provide for general subsidence across the Northern Plains.
Meanwhile, temperatures should remain near to above normal through
most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail except in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Strong winds and large hail will be possible with
any storms this evening and overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Wise

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
937 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

SDZ017-037-040330-
Hand SD-Faulk SD-
937 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HAND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FAULK COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 936 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Polo, or 14 miles north of Miller, moving northwest at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orient and Polo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and north central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4502 9904 4471 9887 4463 9910 4488 9932
      4489 9931 4490 9933 4492 9935
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 155DEG 18KT 4473 9904

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
955 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             2 ENE POLO              44.79N 99.07W
07/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       HAND               SD   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

DYE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1031 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

MNZ039-046-040415-
Traverse MN-Big Stone MN-
1031 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TRAVERSE AND
NORTHEASTERN BIG STONE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1031 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clinton, or 11 miles north of Ortonville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Graceville, Clinton, Johnson and Trinity Lutheran Country Church.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4540 9645 4550 9660 4569 9626 4566 9625
      4559 9625 4558 9624 4543 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 235DEG 16KT 4547 9645

SD