Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
804 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Allowed heat advisory to expire. Developing thunderstorms are
adding to the cloud cover and temperatures are dropping in areas
receiving rain. Drier spots across south central SD will slowly
cool after sunset.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Made a few tweaks to evening pops based on latest HRRR and current
radar returns. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for the
overnight period with two rounds of storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Convection remains the main challenge in the short range.
Instability continues to increase across the region this afternoon as
diabatic heating continues. However, deep layer shear is probably
slackening as the mid level westerlies retreat to the north this
afternoon and evening. Also, heights continue to build
across the region with warming temps aloft. Meanwhile, ll shear will
remain decent through tonight given continued llj, and its diurnal
increase this evening. The CAMS and non-CAMS are at odds concerning
convective development in the northeast toward evening. The HRRR is
somewhat aggressive, perhaps picking up on outflow boundaries left
behind by the morning convection.  Non-CAMS favor activity
developing further north, or not at all over the northeast this
evening. Later in the evening there is fair agreement that an MCS
will fire up over the High Plains, and then head northeast
overnight. The main threat with the possible early evening
convection will be hail and heavy rain, and the late night activity
should favor gusty winds. Nonetheless, confidence in how all this
will play out is fairly low attm.  Temperatures will be above normal
through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

Mid level ridge will expand from the eastern conus, back west to the
central conus during the period. The ridge does get knocked down
some by passing s/w energy late in the weekend, into early next
week. That is likely the best opportunity for any meaningful pcpn
during the period, since prior to that the strong mid level ridge
should provide for general subsidence across the Northern Plains.
Meanwhile, temperatures should remain near to above normal through
most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail except in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Strong winds and large hail will be possible with
any storms this evening and overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
123 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-041830-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
123 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018 /1223 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

More storms are expected this evening and overnight. Severe storms
are possible with strong winds and large hail being the main
threats. Storms could fire first in the northeast, and then later
in the evening out west.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and storms will linger into Wednesday across the east.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

tdk

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
656 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

SDZ017-037-040045-
Hand SD-Faulk SD-
656 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HAND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FAULK COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 656 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Orient, or 12 miles south of Faulkton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orient and Polo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and north central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4474 9908 4480 9925 4498 9909 4490 9891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 209DEG 11KT 4485 9907

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
709 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

SDZ017-037-040115-
Hand SD-Faulk SD-
709 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HAND AND CENTRAL
FAULK COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 709 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Orient, or 8 miles southwest of Faulkton, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Faulkton, Cresbard, Orient, Norbeck and Burkmere.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and north central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4524 9914 4515 9887 4482 9916 4487 9932
      4490 9932 4490 9939 4524 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 205DEG 17KT 4493 9924

Dorn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
732 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             ORIENT                  44.90N 99.09W
07/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       FAULK              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ESTIMATED.

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
735 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             4 N POLO                44.84N 99.11W
07/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       HAND               SD   PUBLIC

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&