Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
959 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

Updated forecast for the severe thunderstorm watch earlier and to
increase pops across the cwa. Quite a bit of convection has
developed out west and was moving east this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

CAMs have trended just a tad further south into northern SD with
their convective activity overnight. Interesting trend recently, but
did not quite bite on the higher POPs the ECAM shows. Would like to
see a few more hours of agreement before raising POPs. Nonetheless,
it does appear as the surface low/frontal boundary crosses the
region tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
within an environment capable of producing hail and gusty winds.
Left mention of T+ in the grids overnight as well.

For Wednesday, cooler temperatures and breezy north winds will be
felt behind the frontal boundary. There may be some leftover morning
convection across the eastern CWA, but activity should move out
through the morning hours, making way for drying conditions during
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

The main challenge in this period will be chances and timing of
precipitation. The pattern really hasn't changed much since the last
major forecast issuance. It will feature an upper ridge in place
across the central portion of the country. Riding up and over this
ridge will be s/w troughs that will work their way through our
region. Difficult to pin down timing or placement of any of these
disturbances in the outer periods. Surface boundaries or a frontal
zone is progged to be positioned in the region during this time, so
there will be a focus area for periodic convection to fire across
the area. Because of the timing issue, it's challenging this far out
to nail down when or if and where convection will take place. By
late in the weekend into early next week, the upper ridge is
expected to be shoved eastward as a long wave trough/upper low
slides across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern High Plains.
Temperatures aren't expected to change much with above normal
readings expected for the entire period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Wednesday. A cold front moving through the region tonight will bring
thunderstorms along with it. These may affect MBG, ABR, and ATY at
or in the vicinity during this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Mohr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-060930-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 /329 AM MDT Tue Jun 5 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly for
locations along the North Dakota, South Dakota border and western
Minnesota. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Additional thunderstorm chances exist across the area Wednesday
through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 5 PM, CDT through tonight.

SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1121 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOBRIDGE                45.54N 100.44W
06/05/2018  M64 MPH          WALWORTH           SD   ASOS

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND GST     GETTYSBURG              45.00N 99.96W
06/05/2018  M68 MPH          POTTER             SD   MESONET

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1154 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 PM     TSTM WND GST     PIERRE                  44.38N 100.32W
06/05/2018  E71 MPH          HUGHES             SD   ASOS

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1207 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 E ONAKA               45.19N 99.44W
06/06/2018  E60 MPH          FAULK              SD   MESONET

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1215 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     TSTM WND GST     BRENTWOOD COLONY        45.12N 99.31W
06/06/2018  E70 MPH          FAULK              SD   MESONET

&&

DYE

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