Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
959 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

Updated forecast for the severe thunderstorm watch earlier and to
increase pops across the cwa. Quite a bit of convection has
developed out west and was moving east this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

CAMs have trended just a tad further south into northern SD with
their convective activity overnight. Interesting trend recently, but
did not quite bite on the higher POPs the ECAM shows. Would like to
see a few more hours of agreement before raising POPs. Nonetheless,
it does appear as the surface low/frontal boundary crosses the
region tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
within an environment capable of producing hail and gusty winds.
Left mention of T+ in the grids overnight as well.

For Wednesday, cooler temperatures and breezy north winds will be
felt behind the frontal boundary. There may be some leftover morning
convection across the eastern CWA, but activity should move out
through the morning hours, making way for drying conditions during
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

The main challenge in this period will be chances and timing of
precipitation. The pattern really hasn't changed much since the last
major forecast issuance. It will feature an upper ridge in place
across the central portion of the country. Riding up and over this
ridge will be s/w troughs that will work their way through our
region. Difficult to pin down timing or placement of any of these
disturbances in the outer periods. Surface boundaries or a frontal
zone is progged to be positioned in the region during this time, so
there will be a focus area for periodic convection to fire across
the area. Because of the timing issue, it's challenging this far out
to nail down when or if and where convection will take place. By
late in the weekend into early next week, the upper ridge is
expected to be shoved eastward as a long wave trough/upper low
slides across the Pacific Northwest into the Northern High Plains.
Temperatures aren't expected to change much with above normal
readings expected for the entire period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Wednesday. A cold front moving through the region tonight will bring
thunderstorms along with it. These may affect MBG, ABR, and ATY at
or in the vicinity during this time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Mohr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-060930-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 /329 AM MDT Tue Jun 5 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly for
locations along the North Dakota, South Dakota border and western
Minnesota. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Additional thunderstorm chances exist across the area Wednesday
through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 5 PM, CDT through tonight.

SD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
854 PM MDT TUE JUN 5 2018

SDZ003-015-060345-
Dewey SD-Corson SD-
854 PM MDT TUE JUN 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CORSON AND
NORTHWESTERN DEWEY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM MDT...

At 854 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shambo Ranch, or 33 miles north of Dupree, moving east at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eagle Butte, Lantry, Timber Lake, Isabel, Firesteel, Little Moreau
Rec Area, Bear Creek, Green Grass, Shambo Ranch and Glencross.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM MDT for
north central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4575 10178 4547 10091 4497 10114 4499 10114
      4500 10150 4503 10150 4504 10148 4547 10147
      4547 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 288DEG 39KT 4553 10174

SD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1036 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     TSTM WND GST     EAGLE BUTTE             45.00N 101.24W
06/05/2018  E60 MPH          DEWEY              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1037 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND GST     LITTLE EAGLE            45.68N 100.80W
06/05/2018  E60 MPH          CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1040 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     HAIL             7 S WATAUGA             45.82N 101.54W
06/05/2018  M1.75 INCH       CORSON             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1041 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             EAGLE BUTTE             45.00N 101.24W
06/05/2018  E1.25 INCH       DEWEY              SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DYE