Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
626 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Upper level low pressure area in central SD will spin its way slowly
east through the night and into Minnesota on Thursday. A couple vort
lobes rotating around it along with a warm front pushing north this
evening will bring scattered to numerous showers/storms to much of
the cwa. Radar was showing new development this afternoon in the
better surface heating area of central SD and along the nose of the
warmer air pushing north. The MUCAPE across the cwa was mainly in
the 1000-2000 j/kg range late this afternoon with decent effective
deep layer shear of 30 to 40 knots across central SD. Thus, any
severe storms would occur across central SD. With the hi-res and
operational models all indicating good reflectivity returns/qpf into
tonight, will continue with the high pops. As the upper low moves
east, the deformation zone and wrap around will bring decent chances
of rainfall into Thursday mainly across the east. With the rainfall,
high ll rh and not much wind, expect low clouds to remain across
much of the east through Thursday afternoon. Therefore, highs will
range from the mid 70s far northeast in the cwa with the cloud cover
to the lower 90s far southwest in the cwa.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

The overall pattern at 00Z Friday will continue to show an area of
high pressure at 500mb, stuck across the 4-corners states. The Low
across southern MN is expected to move across the Great Lakes Friday
night, as the high pushes into TX. Another low will be sinking into
southwestern Canada/Pacific Northwest, with ridging over our area.
The apex of the ridge should be overhead Saturday night, before
becoming flattened/zonal as the Canadian low shifts across south
central Canada Sunday night-Tuesday, and the area of high pressure
retrogrades back to the 4-corners area.

At the sfc, low pressure will continue to slowly exit to our east,
as a ridge of high pressure sinks in for Friday-Saturday. Expect a
cold front to swing across the Dakotas Sunday into early Monday,
extending from the sfc low moving west to east across southern
Canada. Severe weather will be possible. Otherwise, high pressure
looks to be the rule again for the first half of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Sct showers and storms are expected overnight, along with some
lower cigs at KABR/KATY/KMBG. Gusty winds can be expected with any
thunderstorms. The main hail threat this evening will be near
KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TDK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
430 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-190930-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
430 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 /330 AM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region
this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be on the strong
side with hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain. Also, there is an
isolated tornado threat over south central South Dakota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are
encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in
Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook
page, or our Twitter feed.

TMT

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
605 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

SDZ048-182330-
Lyman SD-
605 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LYMAN COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 605 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Vivian, or 11 miles northwest of Presho, moving
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Lyman
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central South
Dakota.

LAT...LON 4402 10031 4409 10031 4415 10006 4394 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 269DEG 10KT 4404 10021

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
614 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE PIERRE            44.38N 100.28W
07/18/2018  M59 MPH          HUGHES             SD   ASOS

&&

JT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
630 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

SDZ011-018-019-190000-
Clark SD-Spink SD-Day SD-
630 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAY...NORTHWESTERN
CLARK AND NORTHEASTERN SPINK COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 630 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Conde, or 21 miles south of Groton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Conde and Crandall.

LAT...LON 4506 9790 4505 9823 4520 9824 4524 9812
      4524 9799 4530 9798 4531 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 240DEG 22KT 4514 9814

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
634 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

SDZ048-190015-
Lyman SD-
634 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LYMAN COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

At 634 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kennebec, or 9 miles southeast of Presho, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lyman, Kennebec and Byre Lake.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central South
Dakota.

LAT...LON 4377 9995 4391 9996 4397 9975 4380 9966
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 242DEG 12KT 4385 9989

KF