Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1154 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level trough currently crossing CO and northern NM should
result in a relatively early crop of showers and thunderstorms.
Given the upper level dynamics and abundant moisture in place, look
for clusters and lines of storms to form and move toward the east or
southeast at speeds around 10 to 20 kt this afternoon, then 15 to 25
kt this evening. There will be notable clearing in the wake of this
convection as drier air advects into the state from the northwest
behind the exiting trough. Most of the activity should exit east of
northern and central NM by midnight. Storms will be more isolated on
Saturday due to the drier air, plus the subtropical ridge will move
overhead.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1127 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018...
.UPDATE...
Steered the forecast for today and tonight closer to the NAM and HREF
solutions, as they seem to be latching on to the upper level short
waves moving into Colorado and New Mexico. Have added a locally heavy
rainfall threat and some strong to severe potential in the east
central to northeastern plains. Heavy downpours are expected amidst
widespread PWATs of 1.0 to 1.4 inches, and while steering flow
appears to be fairly strong at about 10 to 15 knot to the southeast,
wet antecedent soil conditions could lead to some flash flooding in a
few areas. New zone forecast package is already out.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will move across Colorado and northern New Mexico
today, leading to an uptrend in thunderstorm coverage with a few
strong storms likely across northeast portions of the state. High
pressure will strengthen over the state this weekend into Monday
and lead to a warming trend and a downtrend in thunderstorm
coverage. High pressure will then relocate from New Mexico to over
the Great Basin and allow for an uptrend in daily rounds of storms
going into the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough, currently over Nevada, will continue east today
around the upper high circulation across Colorado and northern New
Mexico and bring added forcing for an uptick in thunderstorm
coverage. A few stronger storms are likely across the northeast
plains late afternoon/early evening where more favorable shear
profiles will reside. Otherwise, storms will be moving faster than
yesterday, but locally heavy rainfall is still possible in an area
extending northeast from the south central mountains to the northeast
highlands/plains.

The upper level high will shift east into New Mexico behind the
exiting shortwave trough and strengthen through the weekend and into
Monday, leading to a warming trend and a downtick in thunderstorm
coverage. A backdoor cold front will slide into the northeast Monday
and lead to an uptick in thunderstorms there. Rain chances will then
trend up Tuesday through the remainder of the work-week as the upper
level high relocates from New Mexico to the Great Basin, allowing
moisture to work west across the state. A N-NE flow regime will
prevail from Wednesday through Friday which should favor both the
Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros for more rain.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A potent shortwave will cross southern CO and far northern NM this
afternoon and evening. Abundant low level moisture interacting with
the shortwave will produce scattered to low-end numerous showers
and thunderstorms across most of the region this afternoon through
late tonight. Storm motion to the southeast and east will be 20 to
30 mph. Even though storms will be moving quickly, the high water
content in the atmosphere will crate the potential for flash
flooding with the greatest likelihood across burn scar areas.

Slightly drier air behind the shortwave and increasing high pressure
aloft will bring a decrease in thunderstorm coverage on Saturday and
Sunday. This will result in isolated to low-end scattered
thunderstorm activity, mainly in the higher terrain both days. High
temperatures Saturday and Sunday will range from 2 to 8 degrees
above normal.

As the upper high moves westward over western NM and AZ Monday, a
backdoor cold front will push across the eastern plains and central
NM late in the day into the evening. Moisture will rebound strongly
behind the cold front, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across eastern and central NM Monday afternoon
and evening. Isolated to low-end scattered activity will develop
across western NM Monday evening.

The upper high will drift westward over AZ by mid week and
northwestward across NV during the latter part of the week. Near to
above average monsoonal moisture will remain in place across NM
Tuesday through Friday with daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
453 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

NMZ501>540-041100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
453 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today into the
overnight. Rainfall could become locally heavy. This may lead to
localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent
and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches
of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts
to 50 mph, mainly across eastern New Mexico.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this weekend, mainly
over the mountains. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could
become heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding,
especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated
locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may
also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
212 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

NMZ511-517-518-032045-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-Jemez Mountains-
212 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOS ALAMOS AND
NORTHWESTERN SANTA FE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 212 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
White Rock, or 9 miles southeast of Los Alamos, moving east at 15
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
White Rock, Pojoaque, Bandelier National Monument, Cuyamungue,
Chupadero and San Ildefonso Pueblo.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 10627 3588 10624 3588 10591 3562 10599
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 283DEG 12KT 3580 10619

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