Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
548 PM MDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and thunderstorms that have developed across the high terrain
are slowly moving southward onto the adjacent lowlands with the aid
of outflow boundary collisions. Brief MVFR vsbys in heavy rain are
possible in the strongest storms. Small hail, and gusty outflow winds
to 45kt are also possible. Models are suggesting that storms will
linger into the overnight hours across the high plains toward KROW
before diminish toward sunrise. Friday looks to be very active as a
shortwave trough crosses the state. Storm motion may be somewhat
quicker than today, but storms will be more widespread, especially
across the east.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 PM MDT Thu Aug 2 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure has shifted over the Arizona-New Mexico border with
showers and thunderstorms favoring the Continental Divide and
surrounding areas. These storms will continue to develop between the
Divide and the central mountain chain, gradually moving into
adjacent lower elevations. A disturbance aloft will cross into
New Mexico and Colorado on Friday, leading to a healthy swath of
showers and thunderstorms while high temperatures remain near to
slightly above average. High pressure will slowly build over New
Mexico on Saturday, reducing storms somewhat, but not completely
inhibiting them. Temperatures will climb a couple more degrees both
Saturday and Sunday, but a cold front is expected to arrive into
northeast New Mexico Monday, possibly increasing storm development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to initiate along and west of the
central mountain chain through the evening, but appear to be favoring
west central NM ahead of a weak short wave trough moving out of
southern UT/norther AZ. Lower PWATs moved into the northern
mountains, and after a modest recovery overnight, they are lowering
back to a 0.6 to 0.75 inch range with other areas generally staying
at or above 1 inch. The centroid of the dome of high pressure is near
the AZ-NM border, and winds aloft have reduced in much of NM, leading
to a lighter steering flow overall. This will keep the locally heavy
rainfall threat intact due to slow-moving storms.

By tomorrow (Friday), the dome of high pressure gives way to a more
vigorous short wave trough passage that will cross NM and more of CO.
Some lower PWATs would remain over the northern mountains, but would
likely rise some above today's values, and juicier values between
1.0 and 1.4 will be in place elsewhere, especially near and east of
the central mountain chain. A broad southwest-northeast oriented
swath of storms is depicted by forecast models in the late afternoon
and evening, some of which could turn strong to severe in the evening
as wind shear profiles evolve with the passing wave aloft.

On Saturday and Sunday, high pressure regains its grip on NM with
rising pressure heights and subsidence reducing the thunderstorm
count. This will allow temperatures to climb a couple to a few
degrees Saturday afternoon, staying slightly above average into
Sunday.

High pressure will elongate over the southern CONUS into Monday with
a potential centroid orbiting near NM. According to the GFS, a back
door cold front will enter the northeast corner of the state Monday,
providing additional surface moisture,upslope, and frontogenetical
forcing. This would increase storms in the northeast quadrant,
gradually expanding southwestward into Monday night and Tuesday. The
European is slower with the arrival of this feature. Into the latter
half of the week, the forecast models carry the upper anticyclone
northwest of the Four Corners with future monsoonal surges coming in
the form of additional fronts or perhaps easterly waves aloft.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An uptick in thunderstorm coverage is expected tonight through Friday
as an upper level trough crosses CO and northern NM. With
precipitable water values varying around 1 to 1.4 inches, storms
will be capable of locally heavy rainfall.

In the wake of the upper level trough drier air will filter over the
area from the northwest this weekend. The subtropical high pressure
system will also migrate overhead from the west. This will lead to a
downtick in thunderstorm coverage. Scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms will favor the mountains and adjacent lowlands. Storms
will tend to move slowly and their direction of motion should vary
under the high. High temperatures will trend upward both days with
readings reaching a few to 8 degrees above normal by Sunday.

After precipitable water values around 0.60 to 1 inch over the
weekend, values will rebound Monday and Tuesday as an easterly wave
crosses just south of NM, and an upper level trough clips NE NM. A
moist back door front will also dive through the eastern plains
Monday afternoon and night, and probably into the central valley
Tuesday morning. Then, another upper level trough is forecast to
cross the northeast half of the state with a back door front Tuesday
and Tuesday night. This should all make the first half of the coming
week a very active period for thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall
is expected, except in the Four Corners area, where precipitable
water values will vary near and below 0.75 of an inch.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
406 AM MDT Thu Aug 2 2018

NMZ501>540-031100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
406 AM MDT Thu Aug 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today through the
overnight. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become
heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding,
especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated
locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may
also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Friday. Storm
motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead
to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent
and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches
of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts
to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

11

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