Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across central and
eastern NM into the evening hours. Large hail and wind gusts to 50kt
will be possible, mainly across eastern NM. These storms will slowly
shift south/southeast around 5 to 10kt. TAF sites likely to be
impacted this eve include KABQ/KAEG and KTCC, with lesser confidence
at KROW until late. Brief MVFR vsbys in heavy rain is also possible.
Storms should largely dissipate by 06Z Thu, but a few storms may
linger overnight. Another round of thunderstorms is expected
Thursday, initially forming over the high terrain and drifting
south/southeast. Outflow boundary collisions will help drive storms
onto the lower elevations.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft remains over Arizona with an upper level
disturbance expected to drop from Utah southeastward into New Mexico.
This will produce a swath of additional showers and thunderstorms
over central and east central New Mexico into the evening hours with
some storms turning strong to severe with heavy downpours, gusty
winds, and hail. Into Thursday, high pressure will inch toward the
Arizona-New Mexico border with showers and thunderstorms favoring
the central mountain chain and the Continental Divide before moving
into some adjacent lower elevations. A similar thunderstorm trend
will persist into Friday with temperatures hovering near to just
slightly above average for early August. High pressure will slowly
build over New Mexico this weekend, reducing storms somewhat, but not
completely inhibiting them.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The short wave disturbance can be seen on water vapor imagery over
Utah, and should drop southeastward, pushing lift and an associated
arc-shaped line of new convection into NM into the night. Storms
will continue to have a tendency to be strong to severe, as
prevailing surface winds are primarily exhibiting south southwesterly
components with the northerly flow in the mid troposphere, yielding
increased bulk shear values. A quick glimpse of the radar and
satellite verifies the high instability advertised by the models, and
convection should remain fairly active into the evening. Lower PWATs
are wrapping over the northern mountains of NM, but elsewhere PWATs
range from about 1.0 to 1.5 inch and will add a locally heavy
rainfall threat.

Into Thursday, the wave will have passed through offering a lull as
a brief wave of subsidence passes over, but into the late afternoon
and evening more storms are expected to fire along and west of the
central mountain chain. Drier PWATs will linger over the northern
mountains, and steering flow won't benefit from any speed increases
as the dome of high pressure nudges toward the AZ-NM border. This
would, however, begin to limit the severity of storms with bulk
shear slowly decreasing. As far as temperatures are concerned, a
persistence forecast seems suffice with a few localized areas
observing premature temperature drops during storms.

By Friday, the anticyclone jogs slightly south with a similar storm
and temperature regime continuing over NM. Again, lowest PWATs would
be found over the northern mountains, but heftier values between 1.0
and 1.4 would be found in the southwestern mountains and near/just
east of the central mountain chain. By the weekend high pressure
expands some with a potential ill-defined centroid appearing in
southwestern or south central NM. Mid-tropospheric pressure heights
will not be much higher than they are now, possibly just a couple
decameters higher, but this seems to be enough subsidence to reduce,
but not fully eliminate storm coverage.

After staying atop of NM for the first part of next week, the
anticyclone should creep back over and even northwest of the Four
Corners region by late Tuesday and Wednesday. This would make storm
potential heavily reliant on back door frontal intrusions, which the
GFS is already advocating, with one entering northeastern NM by
Tuesday and shoving more low layer moisture westward into the evening
and on into Wednesday.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have developed across
much of the higher terrain this afternoon. This activity will merge
into the Rio Grande Valley then become a large convective complex
over eastern NM this evening. Upper level high pressure will drift
east into western NM through Friday and bring steering flow to a
halt. This will elevate the potential for flash flooding over the
entire area, especially around burn scars. High temperatures will be
near to slightly above normal in this pattern.

Upper level high pressure will strengthen enough over the weekend to
suppress the coverage of showers and storms. Temperatures will warm
a few more degrees above normal with lower humidity and poor to fair
ventilation. The high center is shown to shift back to the northwest
early next week and allow deeper moisture to return to NM. This
pattern will trend temperatures closer to normal with more heavy rain
possible.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW OSCURO            33.45N 106.13W
07/31/2018  M61 MPH          LINCOLN            NM   MESONET

            WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE - PHILLIPS HILL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800779

JLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
718 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     TSTM WND GST     20 S BINGHAM            33.61N 106.42W
07/31/2018  M70 MPH          SOCORRO            NM   MESONET

            WSMR - LITTLE BURRO

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800780

JLS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
749 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

NMZ523-524-020215-
South Central Highlands-Central Highlands-
749 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHEASTERN
TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

At 749 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Cedarvale, or 14 miles north of Corona, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Corona.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 10575 3457 10559 3439 10533 3421 10558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 319DEG 12KT 3446 10561

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
755 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             2 S WHEATLAND           34.88N 103.35W
08/01/2018  E1.00 INCH       QUAY               NM   NMDOT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800781

JLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
756 PM MDT WED AUG 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHEATLAND               34.91N 103.35W
08/01/2018                   QUAY               NM   NMDOT

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800782

JLS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
756 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

NMZ534-020230-
Quay County-
756 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN QUAY COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM MDT...

At 756 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Quay, or 8 miles south of Tucumcari, moving southeast
at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quay and Tucumcari.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 328 and 329.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 10392 3516 10379 3503 10347 3481 10366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 305DEG 14KT 3505 10378

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