Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across central and
eastern NM into the evening hours. Large hail and wind gusts to 50kt
will be possible, mainly across eastern NM. These storms will slowly
shift south/southeast around 5 to 10kt. TAF sites likely to be
impacted this eve include KABQ/KAEG and KTCC, with lesser confidence
at KROW until late. Brief MVFR vsbys in heavy rain is also possible.
Storms should largely dissipate by 06Z Thu, but a few storms may
linger overnight. Another round of thunderstorms is expected
Thursday, initially forming over the high terrain and drifting
south/southeast. Outflow boundary collisions will help drive storms
onto the lower elevations.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft remains over Arizona with an upper level
disturbance expected to drop from Utah southeastward into New Mexico.
This will produce a swath of additional showers and thunderstorms
over central and east central New Mexico into the evening hours with
some storms turning strong to severe with heavy downpours, gusty
winds, and hail. Into Thursday, high pressure will inch toward the
Arizona-New Mexico border with showers and thunderstorms favoring
the central mountain chain and the Continental Divide before moving
into some adjacent lower elevations. A similar thunderstorm trend
will persist into Friday with temperatures hovering near to just
slightly above average for early August. High pressure will slowly
build over New Mexico this weekend, reducing storms somewhat, but not
completely inhibiting them.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The short wave disturbance can be seen on water vapor imagery over
Utah, and should drop southeastward, pushing lift and an associated
arc-shaped line of new convection into NM into the night. Storms
will continue to have a tendency to be strong to severe, as
prevailing surface winds are primarily exhibiting south southwesterly
components with the northerly flow in the mid troposphere, yielding
increased bulk shear values. A quick glimpse of the radar and
satellite verifies the high instability advertised by the models, and
convection should remain fairly active into the evening. Lower PWATs
are wrapping over the northern mountains of NM, but elsewhere PWATs
range from about 1.0 to 1.5 inch and will add a locally heavy
rainfall threat.

Into Thursday, the wave will have passed through offering a lull as
a brief wave of subsidence passes over, but into the late afternoon
and evening more storms are expected to fire along and west of the
central mountain chain. Drier PWATs will linger over the northern
mountains, and steering flow won't benefit from any speed increases
as the dome of high pressure nudges toward the AZ-NM border. This
would, however, begin to limit the severity of storms with bulk
shear slowly decreasing. As far as temperatures are concerned, a
persistence forecast seems suffice with a few localized areas
observing premature temperature drops during storms.

By Friday, the anticyclone jogs slightly south with a similar storm
and temperature regime continuing over NM. Again, lowest PWATs would
be found over the northern mountains, but heftier values between 1.0
and 1.4 would be found in the southwestern mountains and near/just
east of the central mountain chain. By the weekend high pressure
expands some with a potential ill-defined centroid appearing in
southwestern or south central NM. Mid-tropospheric pressure heights
will not be much higher than they are now, possibly just a couple
decameters higher, but this seems to be enough subsidence to reduce,
but not fully eliminate storm coverage.

After staying atop of NM for the first part of next week, the
anticyclone should creep back over and even northwest of the Four
Corners region by late Tuesday and Wednesday. This would make storm
potential heavily reliant on back door frontal intrusions, which the
GFS is already advocating, with one entering northeastern NM by
Tuesday and shoving more low layer moisture westward into the evening
and on into Wednesday.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have developed across
much of the higher terrain this afternoon. This activity will merge
into the Rio Grande Valley then become a large convective complex
over eastern NM this evening. Upper level high pressure will drift
east into western NM through Friday and bring steering flow to a
halt. This will elevate the potential for flash flooding over the
entire area, especially around burn scars. High temperatures will be
near to slightly above normal in this pattern.

Upper level high pressure will strengthen enough over the weekend to
suppress the coverage of showers and storms. Temperatures will warm
a few more degrees above normal with lower humidity and poor to fair
ventilation. The high center is shown to shift back to the northwest
early next week and allow deeper moisture to return to NM. This
pattern will trend temperatures closer to normal with more heavy rain
possible.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
527 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

NMZ524-020000-
South Central Highlands-
527 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SOCORRO AND
SOUTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 527 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Abo, or 31 miles northeast of Socorro, moving
south at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Socorro and southwestern Torrance Counties.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 10653 3436 10634 3414 10632 3414 10660
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 007DEG 6KT 3427 10643

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

NMZ530-531-020000-
Union County-Harding County-
533 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HARDING AND SOUTH
CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 533 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Bueyeros, or 29 miles northeast of Mosquero, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Harding and south central Union Counties.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 10376 3622 10366 3612 10329 3588 10343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 296DEG 24KT 3611 10363

40

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
553 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

NMZ511-518-519-020030-
Santa Fe Metro Area-Jemez Mountains-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
553 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANDOVAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN SANTA FE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

At 553 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kewa Pueblo, or 14 miles northeast of Bernalillo, moving southeast at
10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Santo Domingo Pueblo, San Felipe Pueblo, Kewa Pueblo, Domingo, Pena
Blanca and Algodones.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 249 and 263.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 10616 3531 10638 3532 10641 3547 10655
      3560 10639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 317DEG 10KT 3549 10642

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