Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 AM MDT Tue May 22 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA forming along the central mt chain late this morning will
develop into TSRA thru 19Z then increase in coverage across eastern
NM this afternoon. A few storms may become strong to severe w/ high
winds, large hail, and heavy rain. Storm motions will to the north-
northeast around 25 kt. Central and western NM will remain dry w/
increasing south-southwest winds. The coverage of SHRA/TSRA will
focus over eastern NM thru 04Z before tapering off to a few SHRA
overnight. MVFR low cigs are expected to redevelop over eastern NM
w/ moist low level south-southeast flow.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 AM MDT Tue May 22 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A robust round of storms brought desperately needed rainfall to much
of central and eastern New Mexico yesterday and overnight. Dry air
will begin to overtake much of western New Mexico today, but another
round of storms is forecast from the Central Mountain Chain east to
the Texas border. A more robust round of storms is likely Wednesday
across the Eastern Plains, where strong storms are likely. A warming
and drying trend is forecast toward the end of the work week and
through the weekend, with above normal temperatures and dwindling
chances for storms confined to far southeast portions of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broken line of thunderstorms is diminishing across southeast New
Mexico and the Texas Panhandle early this morning, with an area of
trailing stratiform rain depositing an additional inch or so of rain
across portions of the East Central and Southeast Plains. Yesterday's
round of storms brought desperately-needed rain to much of central
and eastern New Mexico. The 0.12" that fell at the Albuquerque
Sunport broke a 54 day dry spell. Rainfall amounts across the
Albuquerque Metro averaged about 0.50", with a few spots reporting
slightly over 1".

The upper low is currently over southern Nevada per the latest water
vapor satellite imagery and is forecast to slowly fill and pull
northeast today and tonight. Dry air rotating around the base of the
upper low circulation will gradually work from west to east across
the state over the next couple of days, focusing convection further
east each day. Today's round will favor areas along and east of the
Central Mountain Chain, where strong storms are likely. Wednesday is
looking like the more robust thunderstorm day across the Eastern
Plains, with increased surface heating leading to improved sbCAPE
values between 2000-3000 J/kg. LIs across the Eastern Plains on
Wednesday afternoon will range from -4 to -7C, but 0-6km Bulk Shear
will fall short of sustaining supercells. Instead, pulse-type severe
storms are the best bet with possible merging/clusters. Pressure
heights will begin to increase Thursday as a ridge builds over the
Rockies, but sufficient moisture will remain for one more round of
daytime heating-triggered storms across the South Central Mountains
and Southeast Plains.

A warming/drying trend will ramp-up Friday into the weekend, with
above normal highs forecast. Another Pacific low is forecast to move
inland and make slow eastward progress across the Great Basin
Saturday through Monday. Dry air is forecast to overtake the state
given southwest flow ahead of the upper low, with the dryline
setting up just east of the NM/TX border. Did not include a mention
of storms near the TX border Saturday through Monday given the
modeling of the dryline, but would not be surprised to see Gulf
moisture penetrate further west and result in dryline storms near the
TX border.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase today and transition to southerly and
southwesterly by afternoon, ushering in dry air west of the central
mountain chain. Meanwhile across the east, Gulf moisture will linger
and result in isolated to widely scattered strong to possibly severe
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Similar conditions
remain on track for Wednesday with perhaps an increase in storm
coverage across the eastern plains.

Drier air begins to work into eastern NM Thursday with isolated
storms confined to the eastern plains south of I-40. A ridge of high
pressure builds overhead Friday, limiting thunderstorm chances to
near the TX line. Temperatures rise to above average all areas
Friday, continuing into the weekend. Ridge aloft keeps winds in
check so despite above average temperatures and a dry and unstable
airmass, critical fire weather condtions are not anticipated through
early next week.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
424 AM MDT Tue May 22 2018

NMZ501>540-231100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
424 AM MDT Tue May 22 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong storms are possible east of the Central Mountain Chain
this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts to between 45-55 mph, hail to
the size of nickels and frequent lightning are the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong to potentially severe storms are likely Wednesday afternoon
and evening across the Eastern Plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
858 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     MINOR FLOODING   6 NE ALBUQUERQUE        35.18N 106.55W
05/21/2018                   BERNALILLO         NM   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL, 5 INJ *** 6 INDIVIDUALS WERE SWEPT AWAY
            DUE TO FLOODING IN ALBUQUERQUE AREA FLOOD CONTROL
            SYSTEM. 1 FEMALE SUCCUMBED TO FLOOD WATERS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800638

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1049 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE ALBUQUERQUE       35.10N 106.54W
05/21/2018                   BERNALILLO         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0253 PM     HAIL             5 E ALBUQUERQUE         35.11N 106.54W
05/21/2018  E0.75 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0303 PM     HAIL             6 ENE ALBUQUERQUE       35.15N 106.53W
05/21/2018  M0.75 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800639
EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800640
EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800641

CHJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     HAIL             2 E CARNUEL             35.07N 106.42W
05/21/2018  E1.00 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800642

DPORTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1248 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW ALBUQUERQUE        35.15N 106.66W
05/21/2018                   BERNALILLO         NM   TWITTER FEED

            LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN IN LOS RANCHOS DE ALBUQUERQUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800643

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
133 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NMZ526-539-222000-
Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Mountains-
133 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MDT...

At 133 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Glencoe, or 11 miles east of Ruidoso, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lincoln, Ruidoso, Ruidoso Downs, Tinnie, Glencoe, Hondo, Lincoln
State Monument and San Patricio.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 10532 3331 10561 3332 10563 3358 10543
      3340 10518 3331 10531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 221DEG 16KT 3333 10549

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
155 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NMZ526-539-222030-
Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Mountains-
155 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM MDT...

At 155 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nogal, or 13 miles east of Carrizozo, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Capitan, Encinoso and Angus.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 10576 3362 10574 3363 10574 3367 10577
      3389 10560 3368 10537 3351 10564
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 221DEG 15KT 3364 10565

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