Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Upper low to drift to near KLAS by 22/18Z with a moist low level east
to west flow continuing over most of NM. Mts occasionally obscured in
sct to nmrs showers and tstms contining from the Contdvd to the
Pecos Valley with a few storms containing hail and wind gusts to
around 50kt. This activity with isold strong to severe storms to
shift farther into the eastern plains by 03Z and persist thru 10Z if
HRRR is correct. Areas of MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in br and
preciptation will also obscure terrain from the east slopes of the
central mt chain to the TX border. Improving conditions at 22/15Z
with showers and storms breaking out from the central mt chain
eastward aft 22/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system stalled over the Great Basin will
interact with abundant low level moisture already in place for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the
continental divide tonight. Storms will then return mainly along and
east of the central mountain chain Tuesday through Wednesday, then
across southeast areas Thursday; however, coverage will trend
downward each day as the upper low lifts northeastward across the
northern mountains and drier air filters over New Mexico from the
southwest. There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across central and
eastern areas for the remainder of this afternoon and into the
evening, then again across the east on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
With the drier air will come warmer temperatures with highs reaching
above normal areawide during the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The closed upper level low pressure system stalled over the southern
Great Basin has created favorable dynamics for severe thunderstorms
over central parts of the forecast area this afternoon. The risk of
severe storms will spread onto the eastern plains this evening, then
return to eastern areas on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Storms
will be capable of producing over 1 inch of rain, large hail and
damaging winds.

The upper low will weaken as it lifts northeastward across the
northern Rockies through mid week, steering drier air over NM from
the southwest in the process. There will be a notable downtick in the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the west where
dry weather will return on Tuesday. Storms along and east of the
central mountain chain will become spottier and their wetting
footprints will decrease through mid week, with dry weather pretty
much areawide again on Friday.

During the coming weekend another upper level low pressure system
will move through the Great Basin from the west strengthening wind
and potentially increasing fire weather concerns over portions of New
Mexico. There will also be a risk of dryline thunderstorms across the
far eastern and especially southeastern plains each afternoon and
evening.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall have developed along
and east of the Cont Dvd this afternoon. This activity will spread
eastward across the Rio Grande Valley and into the eastern plains
through tonight. Meanwhile, much drier southwest flow has already
spread into far western NM today. This drier air will move east
toward the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday with breezy to locally windy
conditions. Widespread marginal critical fire weather is likely
along and west of the central mountain chain for several hours
Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, more showers and storms with locally
heavy rainfall will impact eastern NM.

Drier air will spread even farther east into central NM Wednesday as
an upper level trough lifts across the Great Basin. The coverage of
marginal critical fire weather however will decrease as relatively
lighter winds are expected for central and western NM. Eastern NM
will remain in the deeper moisture where showers and storms with
locally heavy rainfall continue.

A ridge will build over NM Thursday through Saturday and allow
temperatures to warm above normal for the entire area with very dry
air and light winds. Multiple days of single digit min humidity is
likely again for central and western NM with poor to fair overnight
recoveries.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
349 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

NMZ501>540-221100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
349 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe storms are possible later today and tonight across
much of central and eastern New Mexico, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary threats. A few dry storms are possible near
the Continental Divide this afternoon and may produce strong and
erratic wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated severe storms are possible late Tuesday across much of
eastern New Mexico then again on Wednesday, but closer to the Texas
border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required later today for much of central
and eastern New Mexico due to the potential for severe storms.

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
416 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ527-528-212245-
Far Northeast Highlands-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
416 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

At 416 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sugarite Canyon State Park to 8 miles
northwest of Raton Crews Airport. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Raton, Raton Pass, Sugarite and Sugarite Canyon State Park.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 446 and 460.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3685 10422 3672 10475 3686 10474 3700 10451
      3699 10408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 230DEG 19KT 3698 10431 3681 10460

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
429 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ522>524-212315-
South Central Highlands-Central Highlands-Estancia Valley-
429 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM MDT...

At 429 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Willard, or 18 miles south of Estancia, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Willard.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3436 10604 3454 10620 3487 10587 3452 10553
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 231DEG 29KT 3450 10603

54

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
516 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             11 WNW CEDARVALE        34.42N 105.89W
05/21/2018  E0.75 INCH       TORRANCE           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800631

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ527-220000-
Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
526 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM MDT...

At 526 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Raton Crews Airport, or 13 miles west of Raton,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Colfax County.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 455 and 460.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3687 10450 3687 10453 3688 10455 3686 10456
      3686 10454 3685 10452 3675 10462 3680 10480
      3699 10472 3699 10438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 210DEG 14KT 3684 10467

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ520-524-220015-
South Central Highlands-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
549 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SOCORRO AND SOUTHERN
TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 549 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 20 miles southwest of Gran Quivira to 8 miles
west of Bingham. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bingham.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
central New Mexico. A severe thunderstorm watch also remains in
effect until 1100 PM MDT for central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3445 10609 3389 10615 3373 10665 3420 10654
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 222DEG 24KT 3411 10640 3386 10652

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ527-528-220030-
Far Northeast Highlands-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
600 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM MDT...

At 600 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Raton to 9 miles southwest of Raton Pass.
Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Raton, Raton Pass, Sugarite and Sugarite Canyon State Park.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 447 and 460.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 10429 3681 10470 3700 10461 3699 10410
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 216DEG 12KT 3688 10439 3688 10458

DPorter