Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Albuquerque, NM

114 
WWUS55 KABQ 212145
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
345 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMC053-212155-
/O.EXP.KABQ.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180521T2145Z/
Socorro-
345 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3389 10759 3397 10771 3445 10764 3429 10723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 207DEG 20KT 3425 10750 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1153 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A moderate to high impact period is expected for the next 12-18 hrs.
SHRA/TSRA has already begun developing along the Cont Dvd w/ strong
to locally severe storms likely. TSRA will develop over the remainder
of the central and western high terrain thru 20Z and move north-
northeast around 20 kt. Storms will organize into clusters and line
segments as the afternoon progresses. Any direct hit will be capable
of strong, erratic outflow winds to 45 kt, hail, frequent cloud to
ground lightning, and brief heavy rain. The focus for TSRA will shift
into the eastern plains aft 02Z with more severe weather possible
thru 06Z before activity tapers to MVFR low cigs and patchy FG.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances are on the uptrend today in the form of thunderstorms as
Gulf moisture continues to increase across the state in advance of a
Pacific low, currently over central California. Strong storms are
likely by late afternoon and evening, with a few possibly becoming
severe. Storms will shift east overnight and focus over the eastern
half of the state. Drier air will overtake western New Mexico
Tuesday, with storms continuing to favor the eastern half. A dry
airmass will push further east Wednesday, causing storms to focus
closer to the Texas border. A warming and drying trend is forecast
from late week into the weekend, with above normal temperatures and
many locales hitting up into the 90s for highs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture advection is underway ahead of an upper level low that is
currently closing-off over central California. Gulf moisture is
working northwest across the state and will send the PWAT at KABQ up
to between 0.85-0.95" by this evening, which is above the 90th
percentile for the day and only a few hundredths of an inch below
daily record values. Plenty of moisture, combined with increasing
instability and the approach of the upper low, will bring good
chances for thunderstorms to much of central and eastern New Mexico
later today and overnight into Tuesday morning. Well developed, deep
convection is likely by late day with a few storms possibly becoming
severe. In particular, the latest NAM has sbCAPE of 1500-2700 J/kg in
the lower/middle RGV by late day, with LIs of -5 to -7C and 0-6km
Bulk Shear of 30-40kts, which may be sufficient for supercell
thunderstorms. Be aware that strong to severe storms may impact the
I-25 corridor between Santa Fe, Albuquerque and Socorro during the
evening rush hour. Another focus area later today for strong to
severe storms will be the South Central Mountains and nearby
highlands thanks in part to the added forcing associated with upslope
low level flow and higher surface dewpoint temperatures. Storms are
forecast to shift east overnight as the upper low makes slow
eastward progress. A dry slot is forecast to rotate around the base
of the upper low into our area Tuesday, which will sharpen-up a
dryline with daytime heating/mixing. Chances for storms on Tuesday
will be confined to the Northern Mountains and eastern New Mexico. By
Wednesday, the upper low will open-up and pull off to the northeast
from over the Great Basin. Southwest flow and a dry airmass will be
the story for western and central New Mexico, but chances for storms
will persist across far eastern portions of the state where Gulf
moisture will hang-on through Wednesday night.

An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify over the Intermountain
West late Thursday into Friday, then shift east over Rockies and New
Mexico on Saturday. Look for a warming trend late week into the
weekend, with above normal temperatures forecast. The Albuquerque
Sunport is forecast to hit above 90 degrees for highs from Friday
through Sunday.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Best shot in quite some time at wetting rainfall (< 0.10") for areas
of central and especially eastern New Mexico today and tonight. Main
fire weather concern is dry thunderstorms on the edge of low-level
Gulf moisture near and west of the continental divide this
afternoon. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will be primarily
wet with strong to severe storms with large hail possible most areas
but especially east.

Drier air moves into western and central NM Tuesday, confining
showers and thunderstorms to the eastern plains. Thunderstorm
chances remain across eastern NM Wednesday afternoon and evening
before drier air moves in to all areas except southeast plains
Thursday.

Models agree that moderate southwest flow aloft will transition into
an upper-level ridge Friday. Despite above average temperatures, a
dry and unstable airmass Friday into the weekend, critical fire
weather conditions are not expected as winds remain below criteria.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
349 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

NMZ501>540-221100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
349 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe storms are possible later today and tonight across
much of central and eastern New Mexico, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary threats. A few dry storms are possible near
the Continental Divide this afternoon and may produce strong and
erratic wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated severe storms are possible late Tuesday across much of
eastern New Mexico then again on Wednesday, but closer to the Texas
border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required later today for much of central
and eastern New Mexico due to the potential for severe storms.

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
146 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ506-507-519-212015-
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
146 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CIBOLA...
NORTHWESTERN VALENCIA AND BERNALILLO COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 146 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Acoma Pueblo to 9 miles
southeast of Mesita. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Laguna Pueblo, Acoma Pueblo, Cubero, Cebolletita, Mesita, New Laguna,
Tohajiilee, Seama, Paguate and Bibo.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 103 and 145.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
central and west central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3520 10747 3521 10674 3486 10701 3475 10739
      3488 10768
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 213DEG 31KT 3491 10747 3494 10718

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
147 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ520-524-212015-
South Central Highlands-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
147 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL 215
PM MDT...

At 147 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lemitar to 9 miles southeast of Bosque Del
Apache Refuge. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Socorro, Lemitar, Escondida, Chamizal, Laborcita and Luis Lopez.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 144 and 160.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3363 10676 3416 10696 3419 10696 3442 10663
      3374 10638
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 240DEG 18KT 3414 10690 3373 10674

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
202 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ506-212045-
West Central Mountains-
202 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CIBOLA AND CENTRAL
MCKINLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 201 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Bluewater Lake State Park, or 11 miles south of
Thoreau, moving north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Thoreau and Coolidge.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 45 and 61.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
west central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3514 10821 3519 10842 3552 10836 3545 10805
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 195DEG 19KT 3524 10829

54

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
205 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ504-511-212030-
Northwest Highlands-Jemez Mountains-
205 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA AND
NORTH CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 205 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Torreon Navajo Mission, or 12 miles southwest of
Cuba, moving north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cuba, Regina, Gallina and La Jara.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
north central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3578 10702 3583 10723 3631 10713 3624 10680
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 195DEG 19KT 3588 10711

54

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
218 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ508-212045-
Southwest Mountains-
218 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SOCORRO AND EAST
CENTRAL CATRON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 218 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of National Radio Astronomy Observatory, or 16 miles
south of Datil, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
National Radio Astronomy Observatory.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3379 10772 3390 10790 3428 10767 3413 10740
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 212DEG 31KT 3391 10777

54

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
242 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

NMZ527-528-212130-
Far Northeast Highlands-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
242 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

At 242 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Raton Crews Airport, or 11 miles southwest of
Raton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raton.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 443 and 460.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3680 10431 3669 10464 3685 10476 3700 10453
      3699 10445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 238DEG 9KT 3681 10463

54