Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
314 PM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Storm coverage will continue to increase each day through Friday
across the Land of Enchantment. Moisture values will trend upward as
well, which will increase concern for heavy rain and flash flooding,
especially on recent burn scars. Drier air will filter into northwest
New Mexico on Saturday, and through the remainder of the area on
Sunday. A strong back door cold front will also push southward
across the plains and westward through the gaps of the central
mountain chain on Sunday. A significant downtick in storm coverage
is expected for both Sunday and Monday before increasing again toward
mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PWATs have increased today per the 12Z KABQ Sounding, and as
expected, storm coverage has increased as well. A weak boundary in
the vicinity of the NM/CO border across the northeast will be the
main focus for thunderstorm development through the remainder of the
evening. A cluster of storms may produce heavy rain, hail, and
damaging wind gusts in this area. Elsewhere, mainly isolated to
scattered coverage through the evening.

The upper high across southwest Texas will slowly meander and center
back over AZ by late Friday. Thus, storm motion will vary from day to
day. However, a convectively induced boundary across northeast or
east central NM will persist and will continue to be a focus for
thunderstorm development during the aftn/eve hours. PWATs will
continue to trend upward through this timeframe, so the threat for
heavy rain and flash flooding will also increase.

Drier air will start to filter into the northwest on Saturday, but
it will continue to be active elsewhere, especially across the east,
as an upper level trough slides across the central Rockies. Could see
a few severe storms across northeast NM Saturday aftn/eve once again.

The dry air aloft will continue to invade on Sunday, and a
significant downtrend in storm coverage is expected. Additionally, a
strong back door cold front will sweep down the plains and westward
through the gaps of the central mountain chain. A strong east canyon
wind is likely below gaps in the Rio Grande Valley. The stable air
behind the front will keep convection minimal on Monday as well.

By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, the upper high will meander
back over NM and it does look like convection will increase once
again.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather conditions anticipated through the upcoming
weekend. Overnight humidity recoveries will generally be good to
excellent, but there will be only fair recoveries northwest New
Mexico this weekend as drier air overtakes that part of the state.
Ventilation will decrease Thursday and moreso Friday with areas of
poor rates forecast.

The upper high center has shifted to southeast New Mexico, allowing
moisture to circulate from the south into western and central New
Mexico. Showers and storms will continue to fire over the higher
terrain this afternoon as well as Thursday afternoon then drift into
the lower elevations. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be
quite active into Friday. Storm motion will be relatively slow and
potentially more erratic on Thursday, increasing the potential for
heavy rainfall. Highs will be within a few degrees of normal.

The upper high center is forecast to relocate to our west over
Arizona and portions of California by Saturday, pushing some drier
air into northwest New Mexico where convection will be inhibited. A
stronger front associated with a vigorous upper trough is forecast
to push into eastern New Mexico Sunday night/Monday which will keep
the central and east active.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high center over southeast NM next 24 hrs with increased
moisture circulating into the state. Sct to nrms showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain then drift to the
lower elevations. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys along with small hail and
wind gusts to around 45kts in the stronger storms. Stronger storms
most likely over ne NM where SPC has indicated a marginal risk of
severe storms. Short term models indicate convection may continue
after 16/06Z over ne/east central NM and west of the Contdvd.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  91  62  91 /  10  10  20  20
Dulce...........................  52  89  51  88 /  30  40  30  40
Cuba............................  57  87  56  87 /  50  40  40  40
Gallup..........................  57  87  55  87 /  30  30  30  40
El Morro........................  51  82  52  81 /  40  50  50  50
Grants..........................  55  85  54  85 /  30  30  40  40
Quemado.........................  54  83  55  84 /  30  40  50  60
Glenwood........................  62  87  63  88 /  30  40  50  50
Chama...........................  48  81  48  80 /  50  50  50  60
Los Alamos......................  60  80  59  82 /  50  40  50  50
Pecos...........................  57  81  57  79 /  40  40  50  60
Cerro/Questa....................  53  80  52  81 /  50  50  50  60
Red River.......................  47  68  47  68 /  50  60  50  70
Angel Fire......................  43  74  42  74 /  50  60  50  70
Taos............................  54  86  52  84 /  50  30  50  60
Mora............................  51  80  51  78 /  50  50  50  60
Espanola........................  58  88  59  89 /  40  20  40  40
Santa Fe........................  59  82  59  82 /  30  20  40  50
Santa Fe Airport................  58  86  58  86 /  30  20  30  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  89  64  88 /  20  20  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  90  67  89 /  20  20  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  91  63  91 /  20  20  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  90  65  90 /  20  20  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  61  92  61  92 /  20  20  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  65  92  65  91 /  20  20  30  30
Socorro.........................  67  93  65  93 /  10  20  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  84  58  83 /  30  30  40  50
Tijeras.........................  60  87  59  86 /  30  30  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  87  54  85 /  30  30  40  50
Clines Corners..................  56  84  56  83 /  40  40  50  60
Gran Quivira....................  59  88  57  86 /  20  30  30  60
Carrizozo.......................  64  88  63  87 /  20  30  30  50
Ruidoso.........................  59  82  56  79 /  20  40  40  50
Capulin.........................  55  83  55  80 /  60  40  50  60
Raton...........................  54  86  55  84 /  50  40  50  60
Springer........................  54  88  54  85 /  40  40  50  50
Las Vegas.......................  54  81  53  79 /  50  50  50  60
Clayton.........................  61  88  62  86 /  70  20  40  30
Roy.............................  58  87  58  83 /  60  40  50  50
Conchas.........................  65  95  65  92 /  60  20  50  30
Santa Rosa......................  65  92  64  91 /  50  20  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  66  96  66  92 /  70  20  40  30
Clovis..........................  66  92  66  89 /  40  20  30  30
Portales........................  66  94  66  91 /  40  20  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  70  95  69  93 /  30  20  40  30
Roswell.........................  70  98  70  95 /  10  10  20  20
Picacho.........................  66  90  65  89 /  20  20  30  30
Elk.............................  60  85  60  84 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

34

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
334 AM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

NMZ501>540-161100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
334 AM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over northeastern
New Mexico this afternoon and evening where large hail and damaging
winds are possible. Storms across the remainder of New Mexico will be
capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding. The
strongest storms may produce flash flooding, particularly over recent
wildfire burn scars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The coverage of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall will increase Thursday through Saturday. Localized areas of
flash flooding are possible, particularly over recent wildfire burn
scars, urban drainages, and locations that receive several rounds of
heavy rainfall. A couple of strong storms are also possible just
about anywhere in this pattern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2018

NMZ528-152145-
Far Northeast Highlands-
320 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

At 320 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springer, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springer and Maxwell.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 408 and 427.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 10475 3642 10481 3658 10454 3631 10449
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 244DEG 11KT 3636 10468

CA

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