Flash Flood Warning 93, NWS Albuquerque, NM

174 
WGUS75 KABQ 152047
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
247 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2018

NMC006-152230-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0093.000000T0000Z-180815T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cibola-
247 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL CIBOLA COUNTY...

At 244 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated that heavy rain from early 
slow moving thunderstorms had ended and only light rain continues. 
Between one and two inches of rain is estimated to have fallen on 
the Diener Canyon wild fire burn scar. Flash flooding is likely in 
progress.

Flash flooding will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Cibola County on and near the Diener Canyon wild fire burn scar.

This will impact the Diener Canyon wild fire burn scar. Some 
locations impacted due to the Diener Canyon scar include Forest 
Roads 480 and 504 as well as Ojo Redondo Campground, Post Office 
Flat and Blue Water Creek. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Life-threatening flooding of creeks, roads and normally dry arroyos
is likely. The heavy rains will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides
and debris flows in steep terrain, especially near the burn area.

To report flooding, contact your local law enforcement agency and the
National Weather Service Office in Albuquerque when you can do so
safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3516 10804 3513 10806 3515 10815 3522 10816
      3530 10811 3526 10811 3522 10814 3520 10807

$$

CA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1136 AM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high center over southeast NM next 24 hrs with increased
moisture circulating into the state. Sct to nrms showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain then drift to the
lower elevations. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys along with small hail and
wind gusts to around 45kts in the stronger storms. Stronger storms
most likely over ne NM where SPC has indicated a marginal risk of
severe storms. Short term models indicate convection may continue
after 16/06Z over ne/east central NM and west of the Contdvd.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
The coverage of showers and storms will increase today as upper
level high pressure shifts southeast into west Texas. A few storms
over northeastern New Mexico may become severe later this afternoon
as they roll off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Western New Mexico
will see more storm coverage today and Thursday as a weak upper level
disturbance moves north from Mexico. Deepening moisture across the
state Friday and Saturday will increase the risk for flash flooding
across the area. The center of upper level high pressure will move
back into southern New Mexico Sunday and force drier air into the
Four Corners region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broken line of showers and storms that rolled off the Sangres last
evening is dissipating while moving southeast across northeastern NM
early this morning. Moist southeast flow at the surface will become
more southerly today and feed another round of showers and storms
beneath northwest flow aloft. SPC has highlighted a marginal risk of
severe storms for northeastern NM. Mid and upper level moisture will
also increase over the western half of NM where a better crop of
showers and storms is expected today.

The center of upper level high pressure will drift westward across
southern NM into AZ through Saturday and allow upper level flow to
gradually become more north to south. Several convectively induced
surface boundaries will slosh around eastern NM through the end of
the week. These moist low level boundaries and increasing mid and
upper level moisture will set the stage for scattered to numerous
showers and storms with heavy rainfall for most areas along and east
of the Cont Divide Thursday through Saturday. 00Z GFS PWAT values at
KABQ trend upward to near 1.2" Friday and Saturday followed by a
sharp decrease to 0.7" Sunday. This PWAT pattern has been shown to
produce increasing frequency of flash flood events in the past. Will
include flash flood wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for the
Friday/Saturday period.

A deep layer of dry air is then shown by guidance to invade the
northwestern half of NM Sunday and Monday as the upper high center
builds over southern AZ. This will also allow a few more surface
boundaries to invade eastern NM and continue the chance for showers
and storms east of the central mt chain through the middle of next
week.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture will increase today thanks to a moist back door front that
pushed into the central valley overnight, and due to a more
traditional monsoon flow around a high pressure system over the
southeast corner of the state.  Precipitable water values will vary
around 1 to 1.4 inches this afternoon, enabling increased coverage
of thunderstorms and greater rainfall intensity. Storm motions will
be toward the north and northeast around the upper high. Like
Tuesday night, an upper level trough slowly exiting the central
Rockies onto the Great Plains will likely produce a complex of
thunderstorms that will move eastward across the northeast and
possibly the east central plains this afternoon and tonight.

The wet pattern that commences today is forecast to persist through
Saturday as the subtropical high over southeast NM gradually
diminishes and redevelops west of the state. Meanwhile, another back
door front or two are expected to enter the eastern plains Wednesday
night and possibly again Tuesday night.  A low pressure system will
then cross the northern and central Rockies from the west,
interacting with all the moisture over NM to produce daily rounds of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that are likely to
linger into each night.

The upper low will begin to exit into the upper Great Plains late
Saturday, and this will allow some drier air into NW NM in it's
wake. The drying will increase and spread to more of the forecast
area Sunday, when there will be a sharp decrease in the number and
wetness of thunderstorms. Mainly isolated convection on Sunday
should favor the central mountain chain eastward thanks to a back
door front that will sag through the east. The front will likely
push through gaps in the central mountain chain from the east with a
gusty east canyon wind Sunday night. However, the front is not
expected to have much moisture with it, so only a modest uptick in
thunderstorm coverage is expected mainly over the mountains on
Monday.

The subtropical high may try to move back over the state from the
west on Tuesday, when moisture seeping northward under the ridge,
and another back door front may enable an uptick in thunderstorm
coverage.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
334 AM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

NMZ501>540-161100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
334 AM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over northeastern
New Mexico this afternoon and evening where large hail and damaging
winds are possible. Storms across the remainder of New Mexico will be
capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and minor flooding. The
strongest storms may produce flash flooding, particularly over recent
wildfire burn scars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The coverage of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall will increase Thursday through Saturday. Localized areas of
flash flooding are possible, particularly over recent wildfire burn
scars, urban drainages, and locations that receive several rounds of
heavy rainfall. A couple of strong storms are also possible just
about anywhere in this pattern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Guyer