Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Albuquerque, NM

848 
WGUS75 KABQ 240117
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
717 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

NMC007-240127-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-180724T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colfax-
717 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3653 10486 3640 10462 3635 10465 3644 10481
      3646 10504 3651 10516 3660 10509 3661 10496

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
237 PM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An active, unsettled weather pattern through at least next weekend. A
strong back door cold front has delivered fresh, low level moisture
to eastern and central NM. This will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms over much of the area, but especially from the central
mountains east to the TX border. Severe weather is possible in the
northeast today and Tuesday. Flash flooding will be a concern each
day, especially on recent burn scars.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Despite a large high pressure area centered over western NM showers
and thunderstorms have erupted over the western and northern
mountains this afternoon, thanks to a fresh supply of low level
moisture in the wake of last nights back door cold front. The front
made it to the Continental Divide this morning. Showers and storms
will continue to develop over the west and central areas through this
afternoon, spilling into the northeast and east central areas this
evening. Flash flooding will be a concern, primarily over the
northern mountains. Isolated severe weather will impact the
northeast.

Pretty much a carbon copy for tomorrow with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon into the night, favoring
the northern mountains. Isolated severe weather is again possible in
the northeast, while local flash flooding is possible, the biggest
threat probably in the northern mountains again.

Not much change for Wednesday with the best chances of showers and
storms from the central mountains eastward. A back door cold front
will renew the low level moisture Wednesday night into Thursday.
Thursday will be very active, with Friday and the weekend backing off
just a little. The threat for flash flooding will continue, actually
becoming an even bigger concern from late week through the weekend,
due to antecedent conditions potentially being much wetter. Isolated
severe weather cannot be ruled out midweek through next weekend, but
the bigger story will be the heavy rain.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The back door cold front that raced through the state overnight has
replenished low level moisture across the area. As a result, a
better crop of showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
northern and western mountains. Storms across the west will move
slowly toward north, while storms across the north will move toward
the east and southeast around 5 to 10 mph through the evening. Much
of the thunderstorm activity through tonight will favor the
northeast quarter of the state as storms roll off the northern
mountains. Any storm will be capable of frequent lightning, small
hail, strong outflow winds, heavy rain and flash flooding. Burn
scars will be the most susceptible to flash flooding.

Another strong gap wind is expected tonight across the Rio Grande
Valley which will again push moisture westward. The upper level high
that has been centered over NM will also shift westward. The
combination of these will lead to another active day on Tuesday.
This active shower and thunderstorm period will continue through the
end of the week, and perhaps into next week thanks to several
disturbances rounding the high and associated moist boundaries
shifting into NM. Thus, look for temperatures to trend downward,
closer to normal July values, while humidity values trend upward.
Ventilation rates will generally be good to excellent, though
pockets of poor ventilation are possible in areas of persistent
convection.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Gap winds continue at KABQ, though have decreased in intensity since
the early morning hours. Gap winds have also now developed at KSAF.
At both locations, these winds should continue until they are
disrupted by convection/outflow boundaries late this afternoon.
Storms will begin by 19-20Z across the northern and western mtns,
before shifting to the east and southeast late this aftn and eve. The
focus for the heaviest and most widespread storms will be across NE
NM where, in addition to very heavy rainfall, hail and gusty outflow
winds near 45kt will be possible. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be likely in
the stronger storms. Convection will continue into the overnight
hours across east central NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  70  97  67  96 /  20  10  30  10
Dulce...........................  57  89  54  88 /  30  30  50  40
Cuba............................  61  86  57  86 /  60  40  60  30
Gallup..........................  62  93  58  92 /  30  20  30  10
El Morro........................  60  88  55  87 /  50  30  30  20
Grants..........................  63  90  58  90 /  40  40  40  20
Quemado.........................  61  90  57  89 /  30  30  40  20
Glenwood........................  70  96  66  94 /  20  30  50  20
Chama...........................  54  81  50  81 /  40  40  50  60
Los Alamos......................  61  82  62  83 /  70  50  60  40
Pecos...........................  59  81  58  85 /  60  40  60  40
Cerro/Questa....................  54  81  52  82 /  70  50  60  50
Red River.......................  50  73  49  74 /  80  70  60  60
Angel Fire......................  53  76  48  78 /  70  60  60  70
Taos............................  57  84  54  85 /  60  50  50  40
Mora............................  56  78  53  82 /  80  60  60  50
Espanola........................  63  90  61  91 /  50  30  50  20
Santa Fe........................  62  84  61  86 /  70  40  60  30
Santa Fe Airport................  64  88  62  89 /  60  20  60  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  90  67  93 /  50  20  50  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  92  68  94 /  40  20  50  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  72  93  67  97 /  40  10  50  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  92  67  96 /  40  10  50  20
Los Lunas.......................  72  94  66  97 /  30  10  50  20
Rio Rancho......................  70  92  68  95 /  40  20  50  20
Socorro.........................  72  95  69  96 /  20  10  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  86  62  88 /  60  20  50  20
Tijeras.........................  64  88  64  90 /  60  20  50  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  64  88  61  91 /  60  20  40  20
Clines Corners..................  61  83  60  87 /  60  30  60  20
Gran Quivira....................  65  88  63  90 /  30  20  30  30
Carrizozo.......................  68  89  66  90 /  10  20  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  62  79  62  80 /  10  20  40  20
Capulin.........................  57  80  57  83 /  80  50  40  40
Raton...........................  57  83  57  86 /  80  50  40  40
Springer........................  60  85  58  89 /  70  40  40  40
Las Vegas.......................  59  79  55  84 /  80  40  60  50
Clayton.........................  63  84  65  90 /  60  20  30  10
Roy.............................  61  82  61  87 /  70  30  40  40
Conchas.........................  67  90  68  94 /  70  20  50  10
Santa Rosa......................  67  89  67  94 /  60  20  50  30
Tucumcari.......................  67  90  69  94 /  70  20  40  10
Clovis..........................  66  87  67  90 /  50  20  40  20
Portales........................  67  88  68  91 /  50  20  40  20
Fort Sumner.....................  68  91  70  94 /  60  10  40  10
Roswell.........................  71  92  71  95 /  10   5  30  20
Picacho.........................  67  87  67  90 /  10  10  40  30
Elk.............................  65  83  64  85 /   5  20  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ511>515-518-527>529.

&&

40

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
334 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

NMZ501>540-241100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
334 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today across the
northern mountains through the overnight. Storm motions will be slow
and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead to localized areas of
flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn
scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A
few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each afternoon
into the weekend. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could
become heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding,
especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated
locations may receive up to 2 to 3 inches of rainfall. A few storms
may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
140 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

NMZ515-232015-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
140 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MORA COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM MDT...

At 139 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chacon, or 17 miles southeast of Taos, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Coyote Creek State Park.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 10518 3609 10529 3624 10539 3626 10536
      3626 10534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 301DEG 4KT 3623 10534

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
149 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

NMZ512-514-232015-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristos
above 9500 feet-
149 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM MDT...

At 149 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tererro, or 18 miles east of Santa Fe. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tererro and Cowles.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 10572 3582 10566 3573 10553 3565 10565
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 301DEG 4KT 3577 10564

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
257 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

NMZ527-232130-
Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
257 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

At 257 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Sugarite, or 10 miles east of Raton, moving east at 10
mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Colfax
County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 10402 3683 10430 3686 10431 3687 10433
      3699 10435 3700 10431 3699 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 264DEG 8KT 3693 10425

33