Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1157 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Gap winds continue at KABQ, though have decreased in intensity since
the early morning hours. Gap winds have also now developed at KSAF.
At both locations, these winds should continue until they are
disrupted by convection/outflow boundaries late this afternoon.
Storms will begin by 19-20Z across the northern and western mtns,
before shifting to the east and southeast late this aftn and eve. The
focus for the heaviest and most widespread storms will be across NE
NM where, in addition to very heavy rainfall, hail and gusty outflow
winds near 45kt will be possible. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be likely in
the stronger storms. Convection will continue into the overnight
hours across east central NM.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures cool off across eastern and central New Mexico today
with scattered to numerous storms forming over the northern
mountains. Increased moisture behind a backdoor front will keep daily
rounds of afternoon storms going through the week and into the
weekend, with localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding being the
main concern. Drier conditions and above normal high temperatures are
expected to hold onto far northwest New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A backdoor front has made its way through east-central NM and the
gaps of the central mtn chain this morning. This will bring much
welcomed relief from record level heat for eastern and central NM,
dropping highs 5-15F from Sunday. The upper ridge will begin to
slide west today, more centered over western NM where highs will
remain well above normal. Moisture from the Gulf and central plains
will move in behind the backdoor front today raising Tds back into
the 50s for central NM to near 60F across eastern NM. The added
moisture, coupled with upslope flow will allow scattered to numerous
storms to develop this afternoon. Storm activity will first focus
along the east slopes of the Sangre's and Jemez Mtns slowly moving
off to the east and southeast as the afternoon progresses. A few
isold-sct storms will also form over the western high terrain. Slow
moving storms will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall,
with the main flash flood concern over the Sangre de Cristo and
Jemez Mtns where a Flash Flood watch has been issued. Short range
models have been pegging the Santa Fe Metro with late afternoon and
evening convection, thus have included that zone in the Flash Flood
Watch.

The forecast continues to show the high sliding west by mid-week,
with daily rounds of afternoon convection forming over the higher
terrain before sliding east to southeast over the eastern plains
later in the evenings. The south-central mtns see their uptick in
storm coverage starting Tuesday as the backdoor front progresses
further south. Highs fall closer to normal across the west Tuesday,
remaining closer to normal areawide through the end of the week.

A quick moving shortwave/perturbation looks to move around the
northeast periphery of the high Wednesday and could spark strong
convection across northeast NM Wednesday night. Will have to monitor
this as we get closer for any potential of severe weather. Another
backdoor front arrives across the east late Wednesday night into
Thursday with the upper high remaining west of the region through at
least this weekend. Daily rounds of afternoon convection are expected
to continue, favoring the higher terrain before moving off to the
east and southeast. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
especially on and below burn scars will remain the main concern
through the week.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The unseasonably strong upper level high centered over NM the past
several days will weaken while shifting westward into AZ this week.
Periodic moist back door frontal boundaries will slide into eastern
NM over the next 10 days and help increase the coverage of storms
with locally heavy rainfall. Storms will develop over the higher
terrain then spread into nearby valleys and highlands on outflow
boundaries each day. Stronger activity will produce locally heavy
rainfall with flash flooding possible. Minimum humidity will trend
upward into the 20s and 30s with widespread very good to excellent
overnight recoveries through late week. Max temperatures in this
pattern will trend closer to normal.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ511>515-518-527>529.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
334 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

NMZ501>540-241100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
334 AM MDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today across the
northern mountains through the overnight. Storm motions will be slow
and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead to localized areas of
flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older burn
scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A
few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each afternoon
into the weekend. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could
become heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding,
especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated
locations may receive up to 2 to 3 inches of rainfall. A few storms
may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

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