Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
154 PM MST Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect daily rounds of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across southeast Arizona into early next week. Rain
will be heavy in some locations. As storm coverage increases,
high temperatures will cool slightly to below normal readings from
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar starting to light up over SE AZ, a little
behind schedule timewise when comparing to some of the mesoscale
models. This is all in response to a 55 kt 250 mb jet max moving
across the international border area and an upper level feature
moving west out of New Mexico. While storms will move at a decent
pace for the monsoon, coverage of storms and rain rates will be
sufficient for some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, as storms
move into the lower deserts, DCAPE values of 1100-1300 J/kg could
result in wind gusts of 50-60 mph.

Expect best rain coverage from late afternoon into the evening
hours. However, at least scattered showers and a few storms should
persist into the overnight hours. Tucson Metro could get in on the
rain as early as the afternoon commute.

The next several days should be an active period, with daily
rounds of thunderstorms expected. While not every location will
see rain every day, some areas could receive significant rain
totals by Monday. Increased cloud coverage and showers/thunderstorms
will result in slightly cooler daytime temperatures.

Models suggest the pattern will ease back slightly into a more
typical monsoon pattern next week, but at least isolated to
scattered thunderstorm coverage is expected each afternoon and
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 29/00Z.
TSRA are expected to continue into this evening across much of
southeast Arizona. MVFR cigs and vsbys likely in TSRA with gusty
winds to 40-50 kts possible. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will linger
through the overnight hours. Another decent round of TSRA is
forecast Friday. Sfc winds generally less than 12 knots outside
of thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An active monsoon pattern will continue with daily shower/storm
chances across much of southeast Arizona into early next week. As
such, elevated humidities will remain in place through the weekend
into next week with excellent overnight recoveries. Outside of
thunderstorm winds, expect 20-foot winds to remain at or below 15
mph and follow typical upslope/down valley diurnal patterns. Fire
weather concerns are low through at least late next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Drozd

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
138 PM MST THU JUL 27 2017

AZZ509-510-272130-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
138 PM MST THU JUL 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRAHAM AND NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MST...

At 136 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms on the south side of the Mogollon Rim, near Hannagan
Meadow, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Half inch hail, winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy rain and frequent
lightning will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hannagan Meadow, Point-Of-Pines, Rose Peak and Blue.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 10905 3332 10937 3332 10999 3358 10999
      3357 10988 3353 10982 3348 10981 3348 10977
      3358 10966 3358 10962 3362 10959 3362 10953
      3370 10945 3373 10936 3378 10934 3378 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 062DEG 9KT 3354 10933

KD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
213 PM MST THU JUL 27 2017

AZZ507-513-272145-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-
213 PM MST THU JUL 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR  UNTIL 245 PM MST...

At 210 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Bisbee. this storm was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
State route 80 near the junction with Highway 90 northwest of
Bisbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3151 11003 3141 10995 3138 11004 3139 11010
      3150 11013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 000DEG 0KT 3144 11001

Cerniglia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 PM MST THU JUL 27 2017

AZZ507-513-272145-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-
217 PM MST THU JUL 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM MST...

At 217 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Bisbee, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bisbee, Sierra Vista Southeast and Junction Of Highways 80 And 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3157 10999 3152 10992 3144 10992 3134 11007
      3151 11019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 063DEG 6KT 3146 11004

Cerniglia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
227 PM MST THU JUL 27 2017

AZZ508-512-272200-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
227 PM MST THU JUL 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MST...

At 225 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 10 to
20 miles east of Douglas, moving west at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of southeastern
Cochise County through 245 pm but could intensify as it approaches
Douglas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 10905 3133 10950 3149 10945 3153 10906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 071DEG 11KT 3133 10936

KD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 PM MST THU JUL 27 2017

AZZ509-511-272230-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including
Clifton/Safford-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount
Graham-
247 PM MST THU JUL 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MST...

At 245 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of San Carlos Reservoir moving south at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of west central
Graham County, including the Santa Teresa Mountains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3315 11034 3310 11015 3285 11021 3292 11043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 015DEG 9KT 3302 11030

KD