Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
827 PM MST Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A solid monsoon pattern remains in place with a chance
of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms into the coming
week. The stronger thunderstorms will produce locally heavy
rainfall and strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
It was another active afternoon and evening across much of Arizona
with storms firing up shortly before 3pm. The show is still far from
over as convection continues to develop across Cochise County with a
third round of storms now creeping into northern Graham/Greenlee
Co's. Fortunately much of the BL instability that was in place
earlier today has diminished, although a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE
are forecast to remain in place for much of the night with minimal
CIN.

Forecast for the rest of the evening/overnight hours will retain
elevated precip chances although it appears that the severe threat
is waning by the minute. Storms for the rest of the night will
likely be marginally severe, if that. Mainly concerned about gusts
to 40-50mph and locally heavy rain. Fortunately the abnormally high
winds in the 700-500mb layer have kept storms from training over the
same area and that trend should continue for the rest of the night.

.AVIATION...Valid thru 17/06Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will occur thru Sunday with the
periods for the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening
hours. Gusts to near 45 kts with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, VFR
conditions with surface wind variable in direction mainly less than
12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Plenty of moisture for scattered mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms through at least the middle of next week.
The stronger thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain
driven at less than 15 mph. Daytime temperatures will be at least a
few degrees below seasonal normals during the upcoming week.

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Still looking at a similar situation to 24 hours ago. The 12Z KTWC
sounding showed very favorable conditions for thunderstorms with wet
microburst potential. Precipitable water 1.72 inches (probably
around 1.55 to 1.6 now), Surface based CAPE 1500 and plenty of
conditional instability. After relatively easy initial development
across the Mogollon Rim and isolated coverage elsewhere, prime-time
for most of the rest of the area is still expected to be between 3PM
and 11PM. Tucson Metro after 4 or 5PM. Strong outflows with
organized thunderstorm complex potential in the early to mid evening
over Pima, Pinal and Santa Cruz counties. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue into the  early morning hours
under remnant circulation and debris clouds.

Beyond tonight, we remain in a favorable pattern for additional
thunderstorm development with a long fetch of deep moisture. High
pressure generally centered north to northeast of the area will
keep us open to easterly wave and inverted trough activity the
first half of the week. A weak inverted trough remains
immediately upstream in Chihuahua and southern New Mexico with
that feature slowly rotating into our area over the next 48 hours.
That should keep us busy, and keep enough of a flow to reset the
atmosphere most days.

We'll pick up a southerly component to our flow later in the new
week but still nothing from the westerlies as the ridge shifts a
little east. Thunderstorm chances will continue for our portion
of the state through the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Leins/Meyer/Zell

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
443 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZZ505-506-160030-
Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-South Central
Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park-
443 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MST...

At 442 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
northwest of Oracle Junction, or 13 miles north of Oro Valley,
moving west at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 mph and blowing dust will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of south central
Pinal County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3275 11101 3254 11093 3251 11127 3261 11135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 076DEG 16KT 3261 11105

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
452 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZZ505-160030-
South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park-
452 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
MST...

At 451 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Boyce Thompson Arboretum to
19 miles west of Oracle. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph and blowing dust will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cactus Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 11107 3261 11135 3289 11147 3314 11110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 063DEG 18KT 3313 11114 3272 11110

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
903 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZZ501-160445-
Western Pima County Including Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National
Monument-
903 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM MST...

At 902 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ajo, moving west at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 mph, brief heavy rain and blowing dust will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ajo.

LAT...LON 3250 11296 3251 11269 3219 11276 3222 11297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 098DEG 10KT 3230 11286