Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

101 
WGUS65 KTWC 162105
FFATWC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
205 PM MST Sun Jul 16 2017


AZZ501>515-171030-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170718T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Pima County-Tohono O'Odham Nation-
Upper Santa Cruz River Valley/Altar Valley-Tucson Metro Area-
South Central Pinal County-Southeast Pinal County-
Upper San Pedro River Valley-
Eastern Cochise County below 5000 feet-Upper Gila River Valley-
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties-
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains-Chiricahua Mountains-
Dragoon and Mule and Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains-
Catalina and Rincon Mountains-Baboquivari Mountains-
Including the cities of Ajo, Organ Pipe Cactus N.M., Sells, 
Nogales, Tucson, Green Valley, Marana, Vail, 
Picacho Peak State Park, Mammoth, Oracle, Sierra Vista, Benson, 
Willcox, Clifton, Safford, Hannagan Meadow, Mount Graham, 
Chiricahua NM, Bisbee, Canelo Hills, Madera Canyon, Mount Lemmon,
and Summerhaven
205 PM MST Sun Jul 16 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* All of southeast Arizona. 

* Through Monday evening

* Flash Flooding may occur at times from scattered to numerous 
  showers and thunderstorms. 

* Areas along washes...small streams and drainages will be 
  susceptible to flooding. Low water crossings and poorly 
  drained roads may become impassable. Rural and dirt roads will 
  likely become washed out at times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are becoming favorable
for widespread flash flooding to develop. Monitor forecasts
closely and be ready to take quick action if Flash Flood Warnings
are issued.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize
the dangers of flash floods.  If Flash Flooding is observed...act
quickly. Turn around and take another route.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio...commercial radio or television
stations...or your cable television provider for updates on this
flash flood threat.

&&

$$

Meyer

043 
WGUS65 KTWC 171018
FFATWC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
318 AM MST Mon Jul 17 2017

AZZ501>515-172200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170718T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Pima County-Tohono O'Odham Nation-
Upper Santa Cruz River Valley/Altar Valley-Tucson Metro Area-
South Central Pinal County-Southeast Pinal County-
Upper San Pedro River Valley-
Eastern Cochise County below 5000 feet-Upper Gila River Valley-
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties-
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains-Chiricahua Mountains-
Dragoon and Mule and Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains-
Catalina and Rincon Mountains-Baboquivari Mountains-
Including the cities of Ajo, Organ Pipe Cactus N.M., Sells, 
Nogales, Tucson, Green Valley, Marana, Vail, 
Picacho Peak State Park, Mammoth, Oracle, Sierra Vista, Benson, 
Willcox, Clifton, Safford, Hannagan Meadow, Mount Graham, 
Chiricahua NM, Bisbee, Canelo Hills, Madera Canyon, Mount Lemmon,
and Summerhaven
318 AM MST Mon Jul 17 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* All of southeast Arizona. 

* Through this evening.

* Flash Flooding may occur at times from scattered to numerous 
  showers and thunderstorms. 

* Areas along washes...small streams and drainages will be 
  susceptible to flooding. Low water crossings and poorly 
  drained roads may become impassable. Rural and dirt roads will 
  likely become washed out at times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are becoming favorable
for widespread flash flooding to develop. Monitor forecasts
closely and be ready to take quick action if Flash Flood Warnings
are issued.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize
the dangers of flash floods.  If Flash Flooding is observed...act
quickly. Turn around and take another route.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio...commercial radio or television
stations...or your cable television provider for updates on this
flash flood threat.

&&

$$

070 
WGUS65 KTWC 172031
FFATWC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
131 PM MST Mon Jul 17 2017

...Flash Flood Watch Extended until 5 AM MST...

AZZ501>515-180445-
/O.EXT.KTWC.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170718T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Pima County-Tohono O'Odham Nation-
Upper Santa Cruz River Valley/Altar Valley-Tucson Metro Area-
South Central Pinal County-Southeast Pinal County-
Upper San Pedro River Valley-
Eastern Cochise County below 5000 feet-Upper Gila River Valley-
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties-
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains-Chiricahua Mountains-
Dragoon and Mule and Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains-
Catalina and Rincon Mountains-Baboquivari Mountains-
Including the cities of Ajo, Organ Pipe Cactus N.M., Sells, 
Nogales, Tucson, Green Valley, Marana, Vail, 
Picacho Peak State Park, Mammoth, Oracle, Sierra Vista, Benson, 
Willcox, Clifton, Safford, Hannagan Meadow, Mount Graham, 
Chiricahua NM, Bisbee, Canelo Hills, Madera Canyon, Mount Lemmon,
and Summerhaven
131 PM MST Mon Jul 17 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* All of Southeast Arizona 

* Through 5 AM MST Tuesday

* Flash Flooding may occur at times from scattered to numerous 
  showers and thunderstorms. 

* Areas along washes...small streams and drainages will be 
  susceptible to flooding. Low water crossings and poorly 
  drained roads may become impassable. Rural and dirt roads will 
  likely become washed out at times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are becoming favorable
for widespread flash flooding to develop. Monitor forecasts
closely and be ready to take quick action if Flash Flood Warnings
are issued.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize
the dangers of flash floods.  If Flash Flooding is observed...act
quickly. Turn around and take another route.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio...commercial radio or television
stations...or your cable television provider for updates on this
flash flood threat.

&&

$$

Meyer

254 
WGUS65 KTWC 180440
FFATWC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
940 PM MST Mon Jul 17 2017


AZZ501>515-181200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170718T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Pima County-Tohono O'Odham Nation-
Upper Santa Cruz River Valley/Altar Valley-Tucson Metro Area-
South Central Pinal County-Southeast Pinal County-
Upper San Pedro River Valley-
Eastern Cochise County below 5000 feet-Upper Gila River Valley-
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties-
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains-Chiricahua Mountains-
Dragoon and Mule and Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains-
Catalina and Rincon Mountains-Baboquivari Mountains-
Including the cities of Ajo, Organ Pipe Cactus N.M., Sells, 
Nogales, Tucson, Green Valley, Marana, Vail, 
Picacho Peak State Park, Mammoth, Oracle, Sierra Vista, Benson, 
Willcox, Clifton, Safford, Hannagan Meadow, Mount Graham, 
Chiricahua NM, Bisbee, Canelo Hills, Madera Canyon, Mount Lemmon,
and Summerhaven
940 PM MST Mon Jul 17 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* All of Southeast Arizona 

* Until 5 AM MST Tuesday

* Flash Flooding may occur at times from scattered to numerous 
  showers and thunderstorms. 

* Areas along washes...small streams and drainages will be 
  susceptible to flooding. Low water crossings and poorly 
  drained roads may become impassable. Rural and dirt roads will 
  likely become washed out at times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are becoming favorable
for widespread flash flooding to develop. Monitor forecasts
closely and be ready to take quick action if Flash Flood Warnings
are issued.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize
the dangers of flash floods.  If Flash Flooding is observed...act
quickly. Turn around and take another route.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio...commercial radio or television
stations...or your cable television provider for updates on this
flash flood threat.

&&

$$

337 
WGUS65 KTWC 180954
FFATWC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
254 AM MST Tue Jul 18 2017

AZZ501>515-181100-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-170718T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Pima County-Tohono O'Odham Nation-
Upper Santa Cruz River Valley/Altar Valley-Tucson Metro Area-
South Central Pinal County-Southeast Pinal County-
Upper San Pedro River Valley-
Eastern Cochise County below 5000 feet-Upper Gila River Valley-
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties-
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains-Chiricahua Mountains-
Dragoon and Mule and Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains-
Catalina and Rincon Mountains-Baboquivari Mountains-
254 AM MST Tue Jul 18 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for all of southeast Arizona has been 
cancelled. The potential for widespread flash flooding has ended.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
827 PM MST Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A solid monsoon pattern remains in place with a chance
of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms into the coming
week. The stronger thunderstorms will produce locally heavy
rainfall and strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
It was another active afternoon and evening across much of Arizona
with storms firing up shortly before 3pm. The show is still far from
over as convection continues to develop across Cochise County with a
third round of storms now creeping into northern Graham/Greenlee
Co's. Fortunately much of the BL instability that was in place
earlier today has diminished, although a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE
are forecast to remain in place for much of the night with minimal
CIN.

Forecast for the rest of the evening/overnight hours will retain
elevated precip chances although it appears that the severe threat
is waning by the minute. Storms for the rest of the night will
likely be marginally severe, if that. Mainly concerned about gusts
to 40-50mph and locally heavy rain. Fortunately the abnormally high
winds in the 700-500mb layer have kept storms from training over the
same area and that trend should continue for the rest of the night.

.AVIATION...Valid thru 17/06Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will occur thru Sunday with the
periods for the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening
hours. Gusts to near 45 kts with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, VFR
conditions with surface wind variable in direction mainly less than
12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Plenty of moisture for scattered mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms through at least the middle of next week.
The stronger thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain
driven at less than 15 mph. Daytime temperatures will be at least a
few degrees below seasonal normals during the upcoming week.

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Still looking at a similar situation to 24 hours ago. The 12Z KTWC
sounding showed very favorable conditions for thunderstorms with wet
microburst potential. Precipitable water 1.72 inches (probably
around 1.55 to 1.6 now), Surface based CAPE 1500 and plenty of
conditional instability. After relatively easy initial development
across the Mogollon Rim and isolated coverage elsewhere, prime-time
for most of the rest of the area is still expected to be between 3PM
and 11PM. Tucson Metro after 4 or 5PM. Strong outflows with
organized thunderstorm complex potential in the early to mid evening
over Pima, Pinal and Santa Cruz counties. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue into the  early morning hours
under remnant circulation and debris clouds.

Beyond tonight, we remain in a favorable pattern for additional
thunderstorm development with a long fetch of deep moisture. High
pressure generally centered north to northeast of the area will
keep us open to easterly wave and inverted trough activity the
first half of the week. A weak inverted trough remains
immediately upstream in Chihuahua and southern New Mexico with
that feature slowly rotating into our area over the next 48 hours.
That should keep us busy, and keep enough of a flow to reset the
atmosphere most days.

We'll pick up a southerly component to our flow later in the new
week but still nothing from the westerlies as the ridge shifts a
little east. Thunderstorm chances will continue for our portion
of the state through the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Leins/Meyer/Zell

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
903 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZZ501-160445-
Western Pima County Including Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National
Monument-
903 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM MST...

At 902 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ajo, moving west at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 mph, brief heavy rain and blowing dust will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ajo.

LAT...LON 3250 11296 3251 11269 3219 11276 3222 11297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 098DEG 10KT 3230 11286