Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 15, 2017Pinal County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 15, 2017, 3:41 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2017, 3:41 PM MST (22:41 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2017, 4:45 PM MST
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ

County Pinal County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 734 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -207 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1627 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 45 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 15, 2:39 PM MST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 2:39 PM MST, 1 hour 2 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
239 PM MST Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A solid monsoon pattern remains in place with a chance
of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms into the coming
week. The stronger thunderstorms will produce locally heavy
rainfall and strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Still looking at a similar situation to 24 hours
ago. The 12Z KTWC sounding showed very favorable conditions for
thunderstorms with wet microburst potential. Precipitable water
1.72 inches (probably around 1.55 to 1.6 now), Surface based CAPE
1500 and plenty of conditional instability. After relatively easy
initial development across the Mogollon Rim and isolated coverage
elsewhere, prime-time for most of the rest of the area is still
expected to be between 3PM and 11PM. Tucson Metro after 4 or 5PM.
Strong outflows with organized thunderstorm complex potential in
the early to mid evening over Pima, Pinal and Santa Cruz counties.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into
the early morning hours under remnant circulation and debris
cloud.

Beyond tonight, we remain in a favorable pattern for additional
thunderstorm development with a long fetch of deep moisture. High
pressure generally centered north to northeast of the area will
keep us open to easterly wave and inverted trough activity the
first half of the week. A weak inverted trough remains
immediately upstream in Chihuahua and southern New Mexico with
that feature slowly rotating into our area over the next 48 hours.
That should keep us busy, and keep enough of a flow to reset the
atmosphere most days.

We'll pick up a southerly component to our flow later in the new
week but still nothing from the westerlies as the ridge shifts a
little east. Thunderstorm chances will continue for our portion
of the state through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 17/06Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will occur thru Sunday with the
periods for the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening
hours. Gusts to near 45 kts with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, VFR
conditions with surface wind variable in direction mainly less than
12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Plenty of moisture for scattered mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms through at least the middle of next week.
The stronger thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain
driven at less than 15 mph. Daytime temperatures will be at least a
few degrees below seasonal normals during the upcoming week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Meyer/Zell

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 2:42 PM MST, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
242 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW BISBEE-DOUGLAS AI 31.45N 109.60W
07/15/2017  M66 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   ASOS

            KDUG REPORTED 57KTS AT 2107Z

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1700017

RH

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 3:19 PM MST, 22 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
319 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZZ503-152300-
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales-
319 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM MST...

At 318 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rio Rico, or 9 miles northwest of Nogales, moving southwest at 20
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tumacacori-Carmen, Pena Blanca Lake and Rio Rico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may also occur with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3159 11110 3146 11092 3133 11106 3140 11127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 039DEG 18KT 3146 11105

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 3:41 PM MST, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
341 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZZ505-506-152345-
Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-South Central
Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park-
341 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MST...

At 339 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking an are of  strong
thunderstorms just northeast of Kearny, and near Hayden, moving
southwest at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 45 mph and blowing dust will
be possible with this storm, followed by locally heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Hayden, Winkelman, Kearny, Kelvin and Dudleyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3299 11079 3299 11077 3302 11074 3288 11065
      3269 11116 3297 11134 3325 11095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 061DEG 22KT 3304 11089

Meyer

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 5:35 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pinal	40 min
Jul 14, 5:36 PM MST	Blowing Dust Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	4 hr
Jul 14, 6:11 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pinal	49 min
Jul 14, 6:20 PM MST	Dust Storm Warning	TWC	Pinal	90 min
Jul 14, 6:32 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pinal	43 min
Jul 14, 6:36 PM MST	Tornado Warning	TWC	Pinal	24 min
Jul 14, 6:50 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pima	25 min
Jul 14, 6:58 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		47 min
Jul 14, 7:01 PM MST	Tornado Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	29 min
Jul 14, 7:33 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	57 min
Jul 15, 3:19 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	41 min
Jul 15, 3:29 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	27 min
Jul 15, 3:59 PM MST	Blowing Dust Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	6 hr
Jul 15, 4:03 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pima	42 min
Jul 15, 4:37 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	38 min
Jul 15, 4:43 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pinal	47 min
Jul 15, 4:52 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pinal	38 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2017 Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.