Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Tucson, AZ

005 
WWUS55 KTWC 152256
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
356 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZC019-021-152306-
/O.CAN.KTWC.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-170715T2315Z/
Pima-Pinal-
356 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA AND
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3262 11086 3260 11078 3250 11079 3250 11102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 038DEG 10KT 3251 11092 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
239 PM MST Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A solid monsoon pattern remains in place with a chance
of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms into the coming
week. The stronger thunderstorms will produce locally heavy
rainfall and strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Still looking at a similar situation to 24 hours
ago. The 12Z KTWC sounding showed very favorable conditions for
thunderstorms with wet microburst potential. Precipitable water
1.72 inches (probably around 1.55 to 1.6 now), Surface based CAPE
1500 and plenty of conditional instability. After relatively easy
initial development across the Mogollon Rim and isolated coverage
elsewhere, prime-time for most of the rest of the area is still
expected to be between 3PM and 11PM. Tucson Metro after 4 or 5PM.
Strong outflows with organized thunderstorm complex potential in
the early to mid evening over Pima, Pinal and Santa Cruz counties.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into
the early morning hours under remnant circulation and debris
cloud.

Beyond tonight, we remain in a favorable pattern for additional
thunderstorm development with a long fetch of deep moisture. High
pressure generally centered north to northeast of the area will
keep us open to easterly wave and inverted trough activity the
first half of the week. A weak inverted trough remains
immediately upstream in Chihuahua and southern New Mexico with
that feature slowly rotating into our area over the next 48 hours.
That should keep us busy, and keep enough of a flow to reset the
atmosphere most days.

We'll pick up a southerly component to our flow later in the new
week but still nothing from the westerlies as the ridge shifts a
little east. Thunderstorm chances will continue for our portion
of the state through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 17/06Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will occur thru Sunday with the
periods for the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening
hours. Gusts to near 45 kts with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, VFR
conditions with surface wind variable in direction mainly less than
12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Plenty of moisture for scattered mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms through at least the middle of next week.
The stronger thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain
driven at less than 15 mph. Daytime temperatures will be at least a
few degrees below seasonal normals during the upcoming week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Meyer/Zell

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
242 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW BISBEE-DOUGLAS AI 31.45N 109.60W
07/15/2017  M66 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   ASOS

            KDUG REPORTED 57KTS AT 2107Z

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1700017

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
319 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

AZZ503-152300-
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales-
319 PM MST SAT JUL 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM MST...

At 318 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rio Rico, or 9 miles northwest of Nogales, moving southwest at 20
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tumacacori-Carmen, Pena Blanca Lake and Rio Rico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may also occur with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3159 11110 3146 11092 3133 11106 3140 11127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 039DEG 18KT 3146 11105