Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
955 AM MST Wed Jul 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms into the middle of next week. Some thunderstorms will
produce locally heavy rainfall. Daily high temperatures will mostly
be close to seasonal normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The showers that occurred across the southern parts
of Cochise county earlier this morning have all pushed south into
Sonora. The 500 mb chart this morning showed two upper high centers,
one over SW AZ and the other over nrn NM. And its wet out there with
precipitable water values in the 1.40" to 1.75" range. The Tucson
sounding did show a pretty good inversion above 500 mb which
hopefully will be eroded by this afternoon.

Overall, after a convective down Tuesday, conditions have recovered
for an active afternoon and evening across SE AZ. Steering flow out
of the NE decent enough to move storms off the higher terrain. Main
threat from storms today will be heavy rain and localized severe
wind gusts.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 13/18Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will be developing mainly from KTUS vicinity
east and south this afternoon and evening. Brief gusts near 45 kts
with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions with surface wind
variable in direction less than 12 kts this morning, then swly to
nwly 8-18 kts and gusts to 25 kts this afternoon and early this
evening before dropping to 12 kts or less overnight. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will prevail into the middle of next week. Expect brief strong,
gusty and erratic winds due to thunderstorm outflows. Otherwise, 20-
foot winds will generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph.
Occasional gusts will occur during the afternoon hours due to
daytime heating. High temperatures will be close to seasonal normals
this week and increased moisture will result in moderate relative
humidity levels.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1221 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

AZZ508-512-122000-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
1221 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
UNTIL 100 PM MST...

At 1219 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Elfrida, moving west at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elfrida and McNeal.

LAT...LON 3175 10952 3157 10955 3157 10978 3180 10969
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 099DEG 10KT 3168 10963