Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Tucson, AZ

083 
WWUS55 KTWC 122122
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
222 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

AZC023-122145-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170712T2145Z/
Santa Cruz-
222 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 220 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Patagonia Lake 
moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Rio Rico Southeast and Patagonia Lake. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3155 11086 3151 11077 3139 11081 3146 11096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 033DEG 8KT 3147 11086 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

784 
WWUS55 KTWC 122142
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
242 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

AZC023-122151-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-170712T2145Z/
Santa Cruz-
242 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning near Patagonia Lake has 
weakened below severe limits, and no longer poses an immediate 
threat to life or property. Therefore the warning will be allowed to 
expire. However gusty winds are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3155 11086 3151 11077 3139 11081 3146 11096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 033DEG 8KT 3145 11087 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
955 AM MST Wed Jul 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms into the middle of next week. Some thunderstorms will
produce locally heavy rainfall. Daily high temperatures will mostly
be close to seasonal normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The showers that occurred across the southern parts
of Cochise county earlier this morning have all pushed south into
Sonora. The 500 mb chart this morning showed two upper high centers,
one over SW AZ and the other over nrn NM. And its wet out there with
precipitable water values in the 1.40" to 1.75" range. The Tucson
sounding did show a pretty good inversion above 500 mb which
hopefully will be eroded by this afternoon.

Overall, after a convective down Tuesday, conditions have recovered
for an active afternoon and evening across SE AZ. Steering flow out
of the NE decent enough to move storms off the higher terrain. Main
threat from storms today will be heavy rain and localized severe
wind gusts.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 13/18Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will be developing mainly from KTUS vicinity
east and south this afternoon and evening. Brief gusts near 45 kts
with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions with surface wind
variable in direction less than 12 kts this morning, then swly to
nwly 8-18 kts and gusts to 25 kts this afternoon and early this
evening before dropping to 12 kts or less overnight. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will prevail into the middle of next week. Expect brief strong,
gusty and erratic winds due to thunderstorm outflows. Otherwise, 20-
foot winds will generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph.
Occasional gusts will occur during the afternoon hours due to
daytime heating. High temperatures will be close to seasonal normals
this week and increased moisture will result in moderate relative
humidity levels.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1221 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

AZZ508-512-122000-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
1221 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
UNTIL 100 PM MST...

At 1219 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Elfrida, moving west at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elfrida and McNeal.

LAT...LON 3175 10952 3157 10955 3157 10978 3180 10969
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 099DEG 10KT 3168 10963

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
127 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

AZZ507-513-122100-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-
127 PM MST WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MST...

At 126 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sierra Vista, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Huachuca City, Sierra Vista Southeast and Fort
Huachuca.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 11024 3151 11014 3143 11042 3163 11046
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 059DEG 14KT 3157 11030