Blowing Dust Advisory 17, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
934 AM MST Sun Jul 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A big jump in our moisture will bring some strong
thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
plenty of moisture for afternoon and evening thunderstorms with a
favorable pattern for storm development most days this week. The
increase in moisture and rain chances will also result in more
seasonable temperature readings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The 12Z KTWC sounding is a beauty, with
precipitable water up to 1.45 inches, and plenty of easily
accessible convective potential. Should be an above average
monsoon afternoon and evening, complete with decent valley
coverages and organized outflows. We will put up an 18z sounding
to check our progress and decide if we want to request satellite
rapid scan for the mid afternoon to early evening period. Latest
HRRR and WRF trends suggest strong storms, especially from Tucson
Metro westward this afternoon. Then a possible follow-up off the
Mogollon Rim this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 10/18Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA developing near mountains by early this
afternoon, then scattered valley and numerous mountain -TSRA/-SHRA
area-wide late this afternoon into this evening. MVFR conditions
with gusts near 45 kts with the stronger TSRA. Otherwise, VFR
conditions with surface wind wly/nwly 8-18 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...We'll see enough moisture for scattered mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the upcoming week.
Expect brief strong, gusty and erratic winds due to thunderstorm
outflows. Otherwise, 20- foot winds will generally be terrain
driven at less than 15 mph. Occasional gusts will occur during the
afternoon hours due to daytime heating. Higher min RH values with
good overnight recoveries. High temperatures will be close to
seasonal normals this week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...It appeared that the deeper moisture needed to
support more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity had
arrived. Surface dew points were in the mid 50 to mid 60s across
southeast Arizona early this morning which was a good sign for
rain chances. Latest models keep the upper high centered north the
area which will maintain a deep easterly flow and fetch of
moisture. That said, rain chances looked pretty good for most of
the area through the week. This increase in moisture along with
the potential for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
will keep high temperatures near seasonable readings this week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Meyer

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1204 PM MST SUN JUL 9 2017

AZZ503-504-507-513-091945-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
1204 PM MST SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM MST...

At 1203 PM MST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm 18 miles southeast of Green Valley,
moving northwest at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Green Valley, Sahuarita, East Sahuarita, Amado, Sonoita, Madera
Canyon and Arivaca Junction.

LAT...LON 3168 11062 3156 11078 3174 11115 3198 11085
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 140DEG 13KT 3168 11076

French