Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1248 PM MST Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through next week. Some thunderstorms will produce
locally heavy rainfall and very strong winds. As a result of the
storms, daily high temperatures will mostly be close to seasonal
normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Active day shaping up with convection already
developing off to the east as anticipated. Current surface temperature
and dewpoint from KTUS plugged into the morning sounding gives CIN of
-26 and a CAPE of 2500 J/kg with no other adjustments. Definitely
 primed and ready.

As mentioned earlier, convective allowing models all pretty much
develop thunderstorms east and south of Tucson and push them to the
west with time with a shot off the Rim again this evening, with the
Tucson metro area getting in on the action, likely 5-7 pm. That is
beginning to play out with the early development so confidence is
pretty good at this time. Also may very well end up with a late night
convective complex across Pinal and central/western Pima as an extra
bonus. Beside the typical local flooding concerns with PWs as high as
we have, the shear environment will allow for the potential of local
severe level winds.

Friday will depend significantly on how quickly we clear out any
lingering cloudiness in order to reset the atmosphere. Better flow
aloft during the day but model soundings indicate less instability is
available although still good enough. All the ingredients are well
enough in place that SPC has us in a marginal risk category again.

Beyond that we remain in a rather good flow pattern with plenty of
moisture available for daily rounds of storms, and as is typical there
will be day to day differences to be dealt with. An additional
benefit with this pattern is that high temperatures will be held to
average or slightly below average levels.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 14/23Z.
-SHRA/-TSRA will cont across SE AZ thru early Friday morning. Brief
gusts near 45 kts with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conds with
surface winds swly to nwly 8-18 kts and gusts to 25 kts into early
this evening, then dropping to 12 kts or less overnight. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
prevail into the middle of next week. Expect brief strong, gusty
and erratic winds due to thunderstorm outflows. Otherwise, 20-
foot winds will generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph.
Occasional gusts will occur during the afternoon hours due to
daytime heating. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
normals this week and increased moisture will result in moderate
relative humidity levels.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

PUBLIC...Cerniglia
AVIATION....Glueck
FIRE WEATHER...Glueck

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