Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

October 14, 20176 counties in Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Oct 14, 2017, 11:34 PM CDT for 6 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 14, 2017, 11:34 PM CDT (04:34 UTC)
Expired: Oct 15, 2017, 12:15 AM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

Counties Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 14 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 946 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -145 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1648 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 210 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 307 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 12.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 14, 7:12 PM CDT, 4 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 14, 7:12 PM CDT, 4 hours 22 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
712 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Current observational and short term model trends support the
going forecast. Looking aloft, a potent PV max over northeast CO
was located in the basal portion of a progressive shortwave trough
moving across the Plains tonight. High pressure building east into
the Plains in the wake of the system is forcing a strong cold
front in our direction. At 7 PM, the cold front stretched from far
NW OK across southern KS just to the south of Wichita and then up
into west central MO. The front should enter northeast OK within
the next couple hours. Thus far, the bulk of the storm activity in
KS has been in the subtropical moist plume ahead of the front.
Over the past half hour more storms have begun to develop just
behind the front and this trend should continue as it drops down
into Oklahoma. The best shot for severe winds will be with the
initial storms to the north and west of Tulsa. Decreasing
instability and the elevated nature of the storms suggest that the
severe potential will wane with time as the front continues
south.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 625 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Southward surging cold front located near a KICT- KGUY line at
this time. Front will move through ern OK/nwrn AR tonight.
Aviation impacts will accompany frontal passage at all sites, as
several hours of lightning and MVFR ceilings are expected.
Additionally, nern OK sites may experience convective wind gusts
35-40 kts for a couple hours after frontal passage. Gradual
clearing trend from nw to se after 09z as front pushes into nern
TX and central AR. Gusty northerly wind all sites on Sunday as
high pressure builds into the Srn Plains.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A line of convection lifting northeast remained ongoing this
afternoon from Northwest Oklahoma through Eastern Kansas and into
Northern Missouri ahead of cold front located from Southwest
Kansas through Northeast Missouri slowly pushing east southeast.
Ahead of the front and line of convection...above seasonal
average temperatures along with gusty southerly winds were common
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

The cold front is expected to continue to pick up speed through
the evening/overnight hours as an upper level shortwave pushes
into/across the Plains and a dome of high pressure over the Gulf
Coast States shifts eastward. In response...the cold front is
expected to enter Northeast Oklahoma around 00z this evening and
quickly move southeast reaching a line near Okfuskee county to
Benton county around 06z tonight and exiting the CWA by 12z
Sunday. The result will be...ongoing convection along with
additional thunderstorms developing along the frontal boundary are
expected to move into the CWA this evening and then quickly
spread over the CWA tonight.

A small severe potential window looks to be possible this evening
mainly northwest of Interstate 44 during the 00z-04z timeframe before
convection begins to become more elevated with the speed of the
cold front undercutting the storms. Instability ahead of the
front along with shear values nearly parallel to the front will
allow for locally damaging winds to be the main threat...though a
small hail threat could be possible. As the front continues to
move through the CWA tonight...the severe potential is expected to
weaken with time and eastward movement overnight.

Behind the frontal boundary...showers with decreasing lightning
potential will be possible along with gusty northerly winds in the
30 to 40+ mph range. By early morning Sunday...majority of the
lightning potential looks to be exiting the CWA with rain showers
remaining possible over parts of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas into the mid/late morning hours Sunday. During the day
Sunday...breezy northerly winds should continue as the upper level
shortwave trof axis departs off to the east Sunday afternoon. Also
Sunday...a much cooler airmass with temperatures around 20+
degrees cooler compared to today are forecast across the region.

The cool airmass is forecast to remain common into Monday as
surface high pressure resides over the Southern Plains. Center of
the high pressure shifts east of the CWA Tuesday allowing for a
return of southerly winds and a slow warming trend through the end
of the work week. By the end of the week...temperatures back in
the 70s/low 80s could be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  66  41  70 /  90  10   0   0
FSM   61  68  45  72 /  80  30   0   0
MLC   55  66  41  69 /  90  20   0   0
BVO   50  65  36  68 /  90  10   0   0
FYV   53  62  36  67 /  90  20   0   0
BYV   52  63  40  67 /  90  30   0   0
MKO   54  65  42  69 /  90  20   0   0
MIO   52  63  38  67 /  90  10   0   0
F10   54  65  43  68 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   59  69  45  72 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 14, 6:30 PM CDT, 5 hours 4 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...corrected
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
630 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...North of I-44, and primarily northwest of a Stillwater to Bartlesville line.
ONSET...After 8 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Along and north of I-44.
ONSET...After 9 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 9 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing...ending briefly this evening...then continuing overnight after cold front passes.

DISCUSSION...

There is an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms this evening,
mainly along and northwest of a Stillwater to Bartlesville line.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat. There is a limited risk
of severe thunderstorms with a gradually lessening wind threat across
the remainder of northeast Oklahoma.

Thunderstorms ongoing over southern Kansas late this afternoon will
build south into northeast Oklahoma this evening as a cold front
surges south into the region by around 9 PM. The greatest potential
for damaging winds will be along and northwest of a Stillwater to
Bartlesville line as the storms enter the region initially. The
latest data continues to indicate that the severe wind potential
will wane fairly quickly afterward, likely ending by midnight as
storms will tend to be undercut by the southward surging cold front.
The broken line of storms are expected to move thru western Arkansas
and southeast Oklahoma during the overnight, however the activity is
expected to be sub-severe by this point.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, where between a half inch to
1 inch of rainfall is expected. The fast moving nature of the
system suggests that heavy rain at any one location will not last
long enough to generate an appreciable flash flood threat.

Gusty south winds will continue through the afternoon with a brief
lull this evening ahead of the cold front. Once the front passes
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common with gusty winds continuing
into Sunday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY thru FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Gusty north winds will continue thru Sunday along with
noticeably cooler temperatures. No hazardous weather
is currently forecast for the upcoming work week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 10:27 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1027 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

OKZ054-055-059>061-064-150415-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-Creek OK-
1027 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND NORTHERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1025 PM CDT, thunderstorm winds were located along a line
extending from 2 miles southwest of Ochelata to 5 miles north of
Ripley. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.  Most of the thunderstorm
activity was occurring well north of the main gust front.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Northwestern Tulsa...             Sand Springs...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Hominy...                         Cleveland...
Mannford...                       Drumright...
Sperry...                         Oologah...
Oilton...                         Ramona...
Jennings...                       Avant...
Westport...                       Talala...
Vera...                           Osage...
Hallett...                        Terlton...

LAT...LON 3658 9600 3655 9550 3588 9662 3616 9662
      3616 9682 3621 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 316DEG 23KT 3656 9600 3610 9692

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 10:32 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1032 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

OKZ054>056-059-150415-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
1032 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN
NOWATA AND PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1031 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles west of Elgin to 7 miles northeast of Perry.
Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
Pawnee...                         Hominy...
Dewey...                          Fairfax...
Barnsdall...                      South Coffeyville...
Copan...                          Shidler...
Wynona...                         Ochelata...
Ralston...                        Lenapah...
Burbank...                        Wann...
Blackburn...                      Elgin...
Skedee...                         Grainola...

LAT...LON 3700 9544 3655 9600 3620 9681 3625 9682
      3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703 3651 9703
      3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692 3659 9705
      3668 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 244DEG 22KT 3701 9635 3634 9717

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 10:48 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1048 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

OKZ056>058-061-063-150430-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Nowata OK-
1048 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAIG...NORTHERN ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...OTTAWA AND SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL
1130 PM CDT...

At 1047 PM CDT, thunderstorms were located along a line extending
from 3 miles south of Chetopa to 12 miles north of White Oak to 2
miles northeast of Talala. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Vinita...
Grove...                          Commerce...
Chelsea...                        Fairland...
Afton...                          Quapaw...
Welch...                          Bernice...
Ketchum...                        Bluejacket...
Wyandotte...                      Talala...
Big Cabin...                      Treece...
New Alluwe...                     Picher...
Bernice State Park...             Cleora...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 273 and 324.

LAT...LON 3700 9462 3675 9462 3651 9498 3650 9579
      3678 9538 3700 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 265DEG 41KT 3699 9511 3679 9531 3656 9566

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 10:56 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1056 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

OKZ054-055-059>062-064-067-150445-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-Wagoner OK-
Mayes OK-Creek OK-
1056 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROGERS...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...
NORTHERN CREEK...NORTHERN MAYES...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN
WAGONER...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1052 PM CDT, a strong gust front in association with
thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 2 miles south
of Talala to 3 miles east of Cushing. Movement was east at 45 mph.
The gust front is occurring well ahead of the main thunderstorm
activity.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Claremore...
Owasso...                         Sapulpa...
Jenks...                          Glenpool...
Skiatook...                       Catoosa...
Collinsville...                   Verdigris...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Drumright...                      Chelsea...
Kiefer...                         Sperry...
Kellyville...                     Oologah...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 198 and 273.

LAT...LON 3656 9598 3651 9500 3649 9500 3589 9616
      3595 9662 3616 9662 3616 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 270DEG 41KT 3649 9569 3598 9669

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 11:27 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1127 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

OKZ057-058-061>063-150515-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
1127 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN
ROGERS...NORTHERN DELAWARE...OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTIES
UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1127 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles east of Quapaw to 3 miles east of Big Cabin.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Vinita...
Grove...                          Commerce...
Chelsea...                        Fairland...
Afton...                          Quapaw...
Bernice...                        Ketchum...
Bluejacket...                     Wyandotte...
Big Cabin...                      Treece...
Picher...                         Honey Creek State Park...
Bernice State Park...             Cleora...
White Oak...                      Narcissa...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 272 and 324.

LAT...LON 3700 9462 3648 9462 3651 9548 3700 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 278DEG 30KT 3693 9468 3653 9517

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 11:34 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1134 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

OKZ054-055-059>067-150515-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Pawnee OK-
Okfuskee OK-Washington OK-Wagoner OK-Mayes OK-Creek OK-
1134 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROGERS...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...CREEK...MAYES...SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
WAGONER...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHERN OKMULGEE AND TULSA COUNTIES
UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1132 PM CDT, a strong gust front in association with developing
thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 2 miles
northwest of Pensacola to Tulsa to 3 miles south of Depew. Movement
was east at 45 mph. The gust front is occurring well ahead of the
main thunderstorm activity.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Claremore...
Bristow...                        Jay...
Pryor...                          Owasso...
Bixby...                          Sapulpa...
Jenks...                          Glenpool...
Coweta...                         Pryor Creek...
Skiatook...                       Catoosa...
Collinsville...                   Verdigris...
Mannford...                       Drumright...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 274.

LAT...LON 3611 9662 3655 9570 3649 9462 3643 9461
      3616 9505 3616 9512 3610 9515 3585 9565
      3586 9577 3579 9577 3562 9610 3564 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 274DEG 38KT 3648 9517 3614 9579 3575 9652

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 14, 9:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	50 min
Oct 14, 9:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Pawnee, Washington	40 min
Oct 14, 10:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Washington	43 min
Oct 14, 10:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata	52 min
Oct 14, 10:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	48 min
Oct 14, 10:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee, Washington	43 min
Oct 14, 10:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	42 min
Oct 14, 10:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa	49 min
Oct 14, 11:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Ottawa	48 min
Oct 14, 11:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	50 min
Oct 15, 12:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	55 min
Oct 15, 12:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	41 min
Oct 15, 2:05 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, Sequoyah	55 min
Oct 15, 1:44 PM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Ottawa	36 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2017 Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.