Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

October 14, 2017Craig County, Nowata County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Oct 14, 2017, 10:23 PM CDT for Craig County, Nowata County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 14, 2017, 10:23 PM CDT (03:23 UTC)
Expired: Oct 14, 2017, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

Counties Craig County, OK, Nowata County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 306 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -165 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1608 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 168 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 310 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 14, 7:12 PM CDT, 3 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 14, 7:12 PM CDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
712 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Current observational and short term model trends support the
going forecast. Looking aloft, a potent PV max over northeast CO
was located in the basal portion of a progressive shortwave trough
moving across the Plains tonight. High pressure building east into
the Plains in the wake of the system is forcing a strong cold
front in our direction. At 7 PM, the cold front stretched from far
NW OK across southern KS just to the south of Wichita and then up
into west central MO. The front should enter northeast OK within
the next couple hours. Thus far, the bulk of the storm activity in
KS has been in the subtropical moist plume ahead of the front.
Over the past half hour more storms have begun to develop just
behind the front and this trend should continue as it drops down
into Oklahoma. The best shot for severe winds will be with the
initial storms to the north and west of Tulsa. Decreasing
instability and the elevated nature of the storms suggest that the
severe potential will wane with time as the front continues
south.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 625 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Southward surging cold front located near a KICT- KGUY line at
this time. Front will move through ern OK/nwrn AR tonight.
Aviation impacts will accompany frontal passage at all sites, as
several hours of lightning and MVFR ceilings are expected.
Additionally, nern OK sites may experience convective wind gusts
35-40 kts for a couple hours after frontal passage. Gradual
clearing trend from nw to se after 09z as front pushes into nern
TX and central AR. Gusty northerly wind all sites on Sunday as
high pressure builds into the Srn Plains.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A line of convection lifting northeast remained ongoing this
afternoon from Northwest Oklahoma through Eastern Kansas and into
Northern Missouri ahead of cold front located from Southwest
Kansas through Northeast Missouri slowly pushing east southeast.
Ahead of the front and line of convection...above seasonal
average temperatures along with gusty southerly winds were common
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

The cold front is expected to continue to pick up speed through
the evening/overnight hours as an upper level shortwave pushes
into/across the Plains and a dome of high pressure over the Gulf
Coast States shifts eastward. In response...the cold front is
expected to enter Northeast Oklahoma around 00z this evening and
quickly move southeast reaching a line near Okfuskee county to
Benton county around 06z tonight and exiting the CWA by 12z
Sunday. The result will be...ongoing convection along with
additional thunderstorms developing along the frontal boundary are
expected to move into the CWA this evening and then quickly
spread over the CWA tonight.

A small severe potential window looks to be possible this evening
mainly northwest of Interstate 44 during the 00z-04z timeframe before
convection begins to become more elevated with the speed of the
cold front undercutting the storms. Instability ahead of the
front along with shear values nearly parallel to the front will
allow for locally damaging winds to be the main threat...though a
small hail threat could be possible. As the front continues to
move through the CWA tonight...the severe potential is expected to
weaken with time and eastward movement overnight.

Behind the frontal boundary...showers with decreasing lightning
potential will be possible along with gusty northerly winds in the
30 to 40+ mph range. By early morning Sunday...majority of the
lightning potential looks to be exiting the CWA with rain showers
remaining possible over parts of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas into the mid/late morning hours Sunday. During the day
Sunday...breezy northerly winds should continue as the upper level
shortwave trof axis departs off to the east Sunday afternoon. Also
Sunday...a much cooler airmass with temperatures around 20+
degrees cooler compared to today are forecast across the region.

The cool airmass is forecast to remain common into Monday as
surface high pressure resides over the Southern Plains. Center of
the high pressure shifts east of the CWA Tuesday allowing for a
return of southerly winds and a slow warming trend through the end
of the work week. By the end of the week...temperatures back in
the 70s/low 80s could be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  66  41  70 /  90  10   0   0
FSM   61  68  45  72 /  80  30   0   0
MLC   55  66  41  69 /  90  20   0   0
BVO   50  65  36  68 /  90  10   0   0
FYV   53  62  36  67 /  90  20   0   0
BYV   52  63  40  67 /  90  30   0   0
MKO   54  65  42  69 /  90  20   0   0
MIO   52  63  38  67 /  90  10   0   0
F10   54  65  43  68 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   59  69  45  72 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 14, 6:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...corrected
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
630 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...North of I-44, and primarily northwest of a Stillwater to Bartlesville line.
ONSET...After 8 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Along and north of I-44.
ONSET...After 9 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 9 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing...ending briefly this evening...then continuing overnight after cold front passes.

DISCUSSION...

There is an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms this evening,
mainly along and northwest of a Stillwater to Bartlesville line.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat. There is a limited risk
of severe thunderstorms with a gradually lessening wind threat across
the remainder of northeast Oklahoma.

Thunderstorms ongoing over southern Kansas late this afternoon will
build south into northeast Oklahoma this evening as a cold front
surges south into the region by around 9 PM. The greatest potential
for damaging winds will be along and northwest of a Stillwater to
Bartlesville line as the storms enter the region initially. The
latest data continues to indicate that the severe wind potential
will wane fairly quickly afterward, likely ending by midnight as
storms will tend to be undercut by the southward surging cold front.
The broken line of storms are expected to move thru western Arkansas
and southeast Oklahoma during the overnight, however the activity is
expected to be sub-severe by this point.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, where between a half inch to
1 inch of rainfall is expected. The fast moving nature of the
system suggests that heavy rain at any one location will not last
long enough to generate an appreciable flash flood threat.

Gusty south winds will continue through the afternoon with a brief
lull this evening ahead of the cold front. Once the front passes
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common with gusty winds continuing
into Sunday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY thru FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Gusty north winds will continue thru Sunday along with
noticeably cooler temperatures. No hazardous weather
is currently forecast for the upcoming work week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 9:10 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
910 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

OKZ054-055-059-150300-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-
910 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OSAGE...NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 908 PM CDT, a strong cold front extended from 5 miles west of
Sedan to Shidler to 3 miles southwest of Marland. Movement was
east southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible just behind the frontal
passage and nearby the storms that are occurring behind the front.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
Pawnee...                         Dewey...
Fairfax...                        Copan...
Shidler...                        Wynona...
Ralston...                        Burbank...
Wann...                           Blackburn...
Elgin...                          Skedee...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Bigheart...                       Osage Hills State Park...
Pearsonia...                      Hulah...

LAT...LON 3700 9579 3683 9581 3665 9603 3622 9682
      3625 9682 3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703
      3651 9703 3658 9689 3660 9692 3659 9705
      3668 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 285DEG 31KT 3711 9628 3679 9666 3652 9720

Lacy

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 9:50 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
950 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

OKZ054>056-059-064-150330-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-Creek OK-
950 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK...
WASHINGTON...NOWATA AND PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 949 PM CDT, a strong cold front was located along a line
extending from 3 miles south of Tyro to 3 miles southwest of
Morrison. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible just behind the frontal
passage, and with the scattered storms which are occurring behind
the front.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Nowata...
Pawhuska...                       Pawnee...
Hominy...                         Dewey...
Cleveland...                      Fairfax...
Barnsdall...                      Oilton...
Copan...                          Ramona...
Shidler...                        Wynona...
Ochelata...                       Delaware...
Kaw City...                       Jennings...
Ralston...                        Avant...

LAT...LON 3700 9572 3681 9543 3677 9543 3660 9581
      3655 9581 3607 9662 3616 9662 3616 9682
      3624 9682 3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703
      3651 9703 3658 9689 3659 9705 3668 9706
      3668 9694 3675 9689 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 313DEG 27KT 3699 9581 3626 9706

Lacy

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 10:02 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1002 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

OKZ055>057-150345-
Craig OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
1002 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAIG...CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1002 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles northeast of Coffeyville to 5 miles south of
Wann. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Nowata...
South Coffeyville...              Delaware...
Lenapah...                        Wann...
Hollow...                         Centralia...
Centrailia...

LAT...LON 3699 9504 3698 9503 3673 9531 3669 9600
      3672 9600 3700 9571 3700 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 270DEG 44KT 3706 9559 3684 9584

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 10:23 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1023 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

OKZ055>058-061-150415-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Ottawa OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
1023 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN
ROGERS...NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA...CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1023 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles south of Edna to near Ochelata. Movement was
east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Nowata...                         Welch...
Ochelata...                       Delaware...
Lenapah...                        New Alluwe...
Watova...                         Hollow...
Pyramid Corners...                Centralia...
Centrailia...

LAT...LON 3654 9551 3656 9600 3663 9600 3700 9545
      3700 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0323Z 266DEG 39KT 3702 9538 3661 9596

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 14, 9:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	50 min
Oct 14, 9:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Pawnee, Washington	40 min
Oct 14, 10:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Washington	43 min
Oct 14, 10:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	48 min
Oct 14, 10:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee, Washington	43 min
Oct 14, 10:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	42 min
Oct 14, 10:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa	49 min
Oct 14, 11:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Ottawa	48 min
Oct 14, 11:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek, Delaware, Mayes, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	41 min
Oct 14, 11:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	50 min
Oct 15, 12:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	55 min
Oct 15, 12:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	41 min
Oct 15, 2:05 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, Sequoyah	55 min
Oct 15, 1:44 PM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Ottawa	36 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2017 Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.