Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
249 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Agitated CU/TCU have formed across far eastern OK/western AR and
have recently see isolated convection develop across far northeast
OK. Hi-res models continue to differ with this activity...with the
operational HRRR remaining quite bullish with its coverage across
western AR into the early evening while the HRRRX keeps the
convection rather isolated. Regardless...instability and stronger
mid-level flow may support a few strong/severe storms into the
evening hours.

Will also need to keep an eye on potential convection developing
to our north overnight. Various model solutions suggest some of
this activity could peel off south...making a run toward northwest
AR later tonight/early Saturday.

Mid-level heights start to rise Sunday and especially into early
next week as the upper ridge bridges across the southeastern US
into the southern Plains. Could see some mainly afternoon
showers/thunderstorms...otherwise expect hot/humid conditions with
afternoon heat index values around 100-105F for most locations.

A northern stream upper wave and associated cold front should
arrive into the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday along
with increasing chances of showers/storms. ECMWF/GFS in agreement
that this boundary will push through the entire region later in
the week...along with drier/cooler conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  75  94  76 /  20  40  20  10
FSM   92  75  93  76 /  40  20  30  20
MLC   91  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   91  72  93  73 /  20  40  20  10
FYV   87  70  89  70 /  40  30  30  20
BYV   89  71  91  71 /  40  40  30  20
MKO   90  74  92  74 /  40  30  20  10
MIO   88  72  92  73 /  30  40  20  20
F10   91  74  93  74 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   91  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late this afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Evening into the overnight hours.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Evening into the overnight hours.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon as an outflow boundary moves east across the region.
Some of these storms could be strong to severe with strong gusty
winds and large hail the main concern. Higher thunderstorm chances arrive
later this evening into the overnight hours, as a storm complex develop
across the Central Plains and tracks southeastward. Conditions may support a more
concentrated risk of severe weather depending how and where the storm complex
develops. Locally heavy rain will be possible this evening and overnight as
the storms spread southeastward. Locations across northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas are currently forecast to receive the highest rainfall totals.

Additionally, afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected
again today across much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and Sunday...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY and Thursday...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue early Saturday with
lesser storm chances from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday.  Afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees
will be common over the weekend into early next week.
Thunderstorm chances will remain relatively low Sunday
and Monday with increasing chances by the middle of
next week as a cold front moves through the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
445 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

ARZ001-OKZ063-182245-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-
445 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND EAST
CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 444 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southwest of
Maysville, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Gravette...
Decatur...                        Maysville...
Sulphur Springs...                Lake Eucha State Park...

LAT...LON 3635 9438 3630 9475 3643 9479 3650 9458
      3650 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 258DEG 15KT 3637 9468