Severe Thunderstorm Warning 435, NWS Tulsa, OK

825 
WWUS54 KTSA 182253
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
553 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

ARC007-182302-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0435.000000T0000Z-170818T2330Z/
Benton AR-
553 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has Moved out of 
the warned area therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3629 9354 3639 9386 3640 9387 3649 9386
      3650 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 291DEG 21KT 3644 9383 

$$

ARC015-182330-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0435.000000T0000Z-170818T2330Z/
Carroll AR-
553 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY...

At 552 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 3 miles southwest of
Beaver, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Berryville...                     Eureka Springs...
Beaver...                         Grandview...
Pleasant Ridge...                 Busch...
Oak Hill...                       

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 9354 3639 9386 3640 9387 3649 9386
      3650 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 291DEG 21KT 3644 9383 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
249 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Agitated CU/TCU have formed across far eastern OK/western AR and
have recently see isolated convection develop across far northeast
OK. Hi-res models continue to differ with this activity...with the
operational HRRR remaining quite bullish with its coverage across
western AR into the early evening while the HRRRX keeps the
convection rather isolated. Regardless...instability and stronger
mid-level flow may support a few strong/severe storms into the
evening hours.

Will also need to keep an eye on potential convection developing
to our north overnight. Various model solutions suggest some of
this activity could peel off south...making a run toward northwest
AR later tonight/early Saturday.

Mid-level heights start to rise Sunday and especially into early
next week as the upper ridge bridges across the southeastern US
into the southern Plains. Could see some mainly afternoon
showers/thunderstorms...otherwise expect hot/humid conditions with
afternoon heat index values around 100-105F for most locations.

A northern stream upper wave and associated cold front should
arrive into the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday along
with increasing chances of showers/storms. ECMWF/GFS in agreement
that this boundary will push through the entire region later in
the week...along with drier/cooler conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  75  94  76 /  20  40  20  10
FSM   92  75  93  76 /  40  20  30  20
MLC   91  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   91  72  93  73 /  20  40  20  10
FYV   87  70  89  70 /  40  30  30  20
BYV   89  71  91  71 /  40  40  30  20
MKO   90  74  92  74 /  40  30  20  10
MIO   88  72  92  73 /  30  40  20  20
F10   91  74  93  74 /  20  30  10  10
HHW   91  74  96  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
456 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas from near Jay to Siloam
Springs, along an outflow boundary. These storms may be strong to
severe, with isolated hail and severe wind gusts possible.
Additional storms may form, mainly east and south of Tulsa.

Heat index values range from 100 to 105 across much of eastern
Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas. There will be some relief
as we near sunset, as temperatures start to drop off, though
it will remain humid with dewpoints in the 70s.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue early Saturday with
decreasing storm chances from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will be common
over the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorm chances will
remain relatively low Sunday and Monday with increasing chances by
the middle of next week as a cold front moves through the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

CORFIDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
445 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

ARZ001-OKZ063-182245-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-
445 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND EAST
CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 444 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southwest of
Maysville, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Gravette...
Decatur...                        Maysville...
Sulphur Springs...                Lake Eucha State Park...

LAT...LON 3635 9438 3630 9475 3643 9479 3650 9458
      3650 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 258DEG 15KT 3637 9468