Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
658 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mid and high clouds are expected to increase across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening as a MCS develops
over Southeast Kansas and pushes into the region. This MCS looks
to move across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas and will
continue tempo groups for timing at TAF sites north of I-40.
Strong winds and MVFR conditions could be possible within the MCS.
Additional showers could linger for a time late tonight before
pushing off to the east southeast. Behind the exiting
precip...some MVFR ceilings could be possible into the mid morning
hours before scattered VFR ceilings are forecast for Friday
afternoon. South of I-40...increasing clouds overnight with
scattered VFR conditions during the day Friday are forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Morning convection that lingered into the afternoon has
dissipated. Focus now turns to convection that has developed
across central Kansas. Short term guidance has been fairly
consistent with these storms evolving into a MCS that will track
southeast through the afternoon...and reach the KS/OK border
01z-03z time frame. Given the instability in place...a few of the
stronger bows may produce some significant severe gusts to 80 mph
this evening across parts of eastern Oklahoma. Storms will likely
weaken as they push further southeast into the area by late this
evening and into the overnight hours.

Pops will continue into Friday with the potential for ongoing
convection after sunrise...as well as additional storm development
that may occur along lingering boundaries. The next chances for
storms will come late Saturday night and into Sunday as as frontal
boundary moves into the area. The effective boundary likely will
serve as a focus for additional scattered storms Sunday afternoon
and into the evening across southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. High pressure at the surface will settle over the
southern plains for the beginning of the next work week...so a
period of settled...and slightly cooler weather can be expected
Monday and Tuesday. Models hint at another complex skirting
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas towards mid week as the
area remains on the edge of improved mid level flow. Have
included low pops in those areas at that time. As for
temperatures...hot and humid conditions to continue through the
weekend...especially those locations that remain convection free.
Stayed pretty close to guidance temperatures throughout the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  94  77  96 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   73  94  75  97 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   73  95  76  95 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   69  94  74  96 /  70  10  20  10
FYV   68  89  70  93 /  60  20  10  10
BYV   68  89  73  95 /  60  20  10  10
MKO   71  93  74  96 /  50  10  10  10
MIO   68  92  75  95 /  70  10  20  10
F10   71  93  75  96 /  40  10  10  10
HHW   74  95  75  95 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
820 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
820 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

...INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 8 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A complex of storms over southern Kansas will continue southeast
into the region tonight. Destructive winds in the 70 to 80 mph
range, with some gusts locally higher than 80 mph, and isolated
reports of golfball or larger hail will be the main threats,
especially in northeast Oklahoma. The severe weather threat will
gradually decrease in intensity as they continue to move south and
east overnight into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat
Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Chances are good that the environment will get worked over by
storms tonight into Friday morning, limiting the chances for
redevelopment on Friday afternoon. If storms do develop, they
will be isolated and likely focused along any remnant outflow
boundaries.

Ahead of the front on Friday and especially Saturday, afternoon
heat indices in the 100 to 110 degree range are expected across
much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Take proper
heat precautions if you are planning outdoor activities.

Thunderstorm chances will return Saturday night into Sunday with a
cold front. Severe weather potential will be limited and likely
in the form of damaging winds.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Lacy

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRYOR                   36.31N 95.32W
06/15/2017                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE. WIND ESTIMATED 65 MPH.

&&

PBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAGONER                 35.96N 95.37W
06/15/2017                   WAGONER            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL POWER POLES DOWN ON EAST SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

PBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1104 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

OKZ054>058-061>063-160445-
Craig OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Nowata OK-
Washington OK-Mayes OK-
1104 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAIG...NORTHERN ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...EAST CENTRAL OSAGE...OTTAWA...NORTHWESTERN
MAYES...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 1145
PM CDT...

At 1103 PM CDT, strong winds are still occurring well back behind a
line of thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma. Wind gusts to near
40 mph will be possible for another half hour to an hour.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Miami...
Vinita...                         Nowata...
Pawhuska...                       Commerce...
Chelsea...                        Barnsdall...
Oologah...                        Fairland...
Afton...                          Quapaw...
Adair...                          Welch...
Bernice...                        Ramona...
Ketchum...                        Ochelata...
Delaware...                       Foyil...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 262 and 323.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9462 3652 9500 3639 9544 3643 9544
      3642 9602 3667 9653 3672 9576 3700 9530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 341DEG 78KT 3663 9487 3633 9505 3615 9572 3630
9648

Lacy