Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

June 15, 2017Craig County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Jun 15, 2017, 9:16 PM CDT for Craig County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2017, 9:16 PM CDT (02:16 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2017, 10:15 PM CDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Craig County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3364 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1267 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 8 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 15, 6:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 6:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 18 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
658 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mid and high clouds are expected to increase across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening as a MCS develops
over Southeast Kansas and pushes into the region. This MCS looks
to move across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas and will
continue tempo groups for timing at TAF sites north of I-40.
Strong winds and MVFR conditions could be possible within the MCS.
Additional showers could linger for a time late tonight before
pushing off to the east southeast. Behind the exiting
precip...some MVFR ceilings could be possible into the mid morning
hours before scattered VFR ceilings are forecast for Friday
afternoon. South of I-40...increasing clouds overnight with
scattered VFR conditions during the day Friday are forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Morning convection that lingered into the afternoon has
dissipated. Focus now turns to convection that has developed
across central Kansas. Short term guidance has been fairly
consistent with these storms evolving into a MCS that will track
southeast through the afternoon...and reach the KS/OK border
01z-03z time frame. Given the instability in place...a few of the
stronger bows may produce some significant severe gusts to 80 mph
this evening across parts of eastern Oklahoma. Storms will likely
weaken as they push further southeast into the area by late this
evening and into the overnight hours.

Pops will continue into Friday with the potential for ongoing
convection after sunrise...as well as additional storm development
that may occur along lingering boundaries. The next chances for
storms will come late Saturday night and into Sunday as as frontal
boundary moves into the area. The effective boundary likely will
serve as a focus for additional scattered storms Sunday afternoon
and into the evening across southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. High pressure at the surface will settle over the
southern plains for the beginning of the next work week...so a
period of settled...and slightly cooler weather can be expected
Monday and Tuesday. Models hint at another complex skirting
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas towards mid week as the
area remains on the edge of improved mid level flow. Have
included low pops in those areas at that time. As for
temperatures...hot and humid conditions to continue through the
weekend...especially those locations that remain convection free.
Stayed pretty close to guidance temperatures throughout the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  94  77  96 /  60  10  10  10
FSM   73  94  75  97 /  50  30  10  10
MLC   73  95  76  95 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   69  94  74  96 /  70  10  20  10
FYV   68  89  70  93 /  60  20  10  10
BYV   68  89  73  95 /  60  20  10  10
MKO   71  93  74  96 /  50  10  10  10
MIO   68  92  75  95 /  70  10  20  10
F10   71  93  75  96 /  40  10  10  10
HHW   74  95  75  95 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...20

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 15, 8:20 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
820 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
820 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

...INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 8 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 8 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A complex of storms over southern Kansas will continue southeast
into the region tonight. Destructive winds in the 70 to 80 mph
range, with some gusts locally higher than 80 mph, and isolated
reports of golfball or larger hail will be the main threats,
especially in northeast Oklahoma. The severe weather threat will
gradually decrease in intensity as they continue to move south and
east overnight into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat
Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Chances are good that the environment will get worked over by
storms tonight into Friday morning, limiting the chances for
redevelopment on Friday afternoon. If storms do develop, they
will be isolated and likely focused along any remnant outflow
boundaries.

Ahead of the front on Friday and especially Saturday, afternoon
heat indices in the 100 to 110 degree range are expected across
much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Take proper
heat precautions if you are planning outdoor activities.

Thunderstorm chances will return Saturday night into Sunday with a
cold front. Severe weather potential will be limited and likely
in the form of damaging winds.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Lacy

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 8:28 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
828 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

OKZ054-160230-
Osage OK-
828 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 930
PM CDT...

At 826 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles southeast of Argonia to 3 miles west of
Arkansas City to 5 miles north of Cedar Vale. Movement was south at
35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms. The
strong wind gusts will precede the precipitation by 10 to 20
minutes. Stronger wind gusts are likely when the precipitation moves
into the area.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Elgin...                          Grainola...
Foraker...                        Bigheart...
Pearsonia...                      Hulah...
Osage Hills State Park...         Okesa...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Wah Sha She State Park...         Apperson...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3671 9600 3658 9690 3660 9692
      3658 9698 3659 9706 3660 9704 3669 9706
      3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 356DEG 30KT 3722 9770 3707 9710 3719 9654

69

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 9:16 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

OKZ057-058-160315-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
916 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAIG AND NORTHERN
OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 915 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles west of Edna to near Osage Hills State Park.
Movement was east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms. The
strong wind gusts will precede the precipitation by 15 to 30
minutes. Stronger wind gusts are likely when the precipitation moves
into the area.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Commerce...
Quapaw...                         Welch...
Bluejacket...                     Treece...
Picher...                         Ottawa...
Peoria...                         Cardin...
Hollow...                         Centrailia...
Pyramid Corners...                Centralia...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 306 and 324.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9462 3690 9462 3668 9543 3694 9543
      3694 9541 3700 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 282DEG 46KT 3704 9545 3673 9621

69

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 8:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	62 min
Jun 15, 8:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Pawnee, Washington	67 min
Jun 15, 9:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes, Nowata, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa and 1 more	50 min
Jun 15, 9:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	39 min
Jun 15, 10:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek, Delaware, Mayes, Tulsa, Wagoner	56 min
Jun 15, 10:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware, Ottawa	66 min
Jun 15, 10:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Creek, Delaware, Mayes, Muskogee and 4 more	52 min
Jun 15, 10:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Washington	34 min
Jun 15, 10:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa and 1 more	47 min
Jun 15, 10:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	32 min
Jun 15, 11:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Osage, Ottawa, Washington	41 min
Jun 15, 11:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	24 min
Jun 15, 11:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee and 3 more	53 min
Jun 15, 11:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Delaware, Mayes, Rogers, Tulsa	41 min
Jun 15, 11:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee	49 min
Jun 15, 11:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, McIntosh and 3 more	49 min
Jun 15, 11:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	38 min
Jun 15, 11:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Washington	32 min
Jun 16, 12:31 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, McIntosh, Pittsburg	59 min
Jun 16, 1:03 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	42 min
Jun 16, 2:30 PM CDT	Heat Advisory	TSA	Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Creek, Delaware, Haskell and 15 more	24 hr
Jun 15, 11:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton, Washington	45 min
Jun 15, 11:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Washington	45 min
Jun 15, 11:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	58 min
Jun 16, 12:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian, Washington	53 min
Jun 16, 12:57 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Franklin, Madison, Sebastian	48 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2017 Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.