Severe Thunderstorm Warning 455, NWS Tulsa, OK

925 
WWUS54 KTSA 220052
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
752 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

OKC113-117-220115-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0455.000000T0000Z-171022T0115Z/
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
752 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES...

At 749 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles north of Hardy to 3 miles north of Skedee,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...At 740 pm a 59 mph wind gust was reported by the Oklahoma 
         Mesonet at Burbank. The public also reports wind gusts of 
         50 t0 60 mph in Burbank.  

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Pawnee...
Hominy...                         Fairfax...
Shidler...                        Ralston...
Burbank...                        Blackburn...
Skedee...                         Grainola...
Foraker...                        Pearsonia...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Apperson...                       

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for damaging winds. People outside should move 
to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9636 3637 9633 3634 9702 3651 9703
      3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698
      3659 9705 3668 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694
      3675 9689 3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675
      3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 251DEG 33KT 3706 9679 3643 9671 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front extended from Topeka to Weatherford this evening.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will affect all terminals within
the next few hours. Best potential for severe gusts will be with
initial line, affecting KBVO/KTUL/KRVS before midnight. A
prolonged period of rain may reduce visibility and ceilings for
several hours. Wind threat will diminish as cold front eventually
undercuts the convective line.

SHORT TERM...08
AVIATION...06

CORFIDI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
517 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...Severe Thunderstorms Expected to Sweep Through Tonight...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...All of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7pm...ending by 3am in Carroll and Madison Counties.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...All of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7pm...end by 3am in Carroll and Madison Counties.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma...with a lesser threat in northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7pm.

RIVER FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will increase and spread across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening.  While a few storms could develop
ahead of the cold front, especially in the terrain of southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, the main round of severe is expected
with storms developing a near a cold front moving in from the northwest.
Initial individual storm cell development to the west will transition to
a line of storms this evening that will sweep through the entire area.
While some potential for hail exits, especially earlier in the evening,
the main risk will be damaging wind and the potential for areas of rotation
to form within the line.  Because of this rotation potential, there is
some tornado threat anywhere along the line.  Scattered areas of strong
winds are also expected within the line.  Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are
expected in the most intense storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will be ending from west to east later tonight
and early on Sunday morning.  Another front late next week is
expected to bring more thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.
Rainfall tonight is expected to drive some creeks and rivers up
in northeast Oklahoma over the next couple of days.  A Flood
Warning is currently up for the Neosho River at Commerce, OK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers will need to activate their spotter networks tonight.
The evolution of circulations in squall lines can be very quick with
few visual clues for spotters and limited warning opportunities.  Spotters
should exercise caution and not attempt to intercept areas of rotation
where visibility is low.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.