Severe Thunderstorm Warning 412, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
213 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Surface boundary currently located near highway 412 this afternoon,
near a Oilton, Tulsa, Kansas line, extending into northwest Arkansas.
Moderate instability has developed south of boundary with lifted indices
running around -5 to -7. Isolated thunderstorms have started to
develop south of the boundary and expect this trend to continue as
CAP erodes and MCV moves SSE into southeast Oklahoma.

Still the potential for damaging down burst winds/locally heavy rainfall
in the stronger storms through mid evening before convection pushes
south and dissipates. Storms will likely remain more multicellular
in nature given the weak shear but slow storm motions may lead to
some localized flooding. Current excessive heat warning remains
on track with heat indices in the 110-113 degree range expected
before storms/outflow sweeps through. North of I-44 the heat
advisory may be cancelled early as drier air continues to filter
into region behind boundary.

Limited precipitation chances will continue across southeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas both Monday and Tuesday, however storms are
expected to remain more isolated in nature. Hot/humid conditions
will also persist with heat indices climbing back to around heat
advisory criteria Tuesday and especially Wednesday/Thursday.

Next cold front forecast to move into the area around the Friday
time frame, however ECMWF a little slower compared with the more
progressive GFS. Regardless, scattered showers/thunderstorms will
be possible as front moves through. It looks like we will finally
see a break from the heat into next weekend, behind the front, as
longwave upper trough develops over the eastern CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  98  73  97 /  20  10  20  10
FSM   74  95  76  96 /  60  30  20  20
MLC   71  93  72  95 /  60  30  20  10
BVO   65  96  67  97 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   66  92  68  92 /  30  20  20  20
BYV   68  94  70  93 /  30  20  20  20
MKO   71  94  72  95 /  30  20  20  10
MIO   67  95  68  96 /  20  10  10  10
F10   72  95  72  96 /  40  20  20  10
HHW   74  92  73  95 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>064-067>069-
     072-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053-065-066-070-071-073>075.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
103 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
103 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Mainly south and east of Interstate 44.
    ONSET...After 2PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
    RISK...Significant.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
This afternoon, an outflow boundary from early morning storms
extended from far northeast Oklahoma through south central
Oklahoma. This boundary will be the focus for afternoon
thunderstorms across the area. Wind shear is weak...but hot
afternoon temperatures could result in a few strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing strong winds. Thunderstorms
should diminish into the early evening hours.

Afternoon heat index values ranged from the upper 80s to lower 90s
along the Kansas/Oklahoma border with values from 105 to 110
across southeast Oklahoma. A heat advisory remains in effect til 8
PM across northeast portions of Oklahoma and western Arkansas,
with an excessive heat warning in effect until 8 PM for portions
of southeast Oklahoma, generally south of Interstate 40.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Low chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue for Monday into
Tuesday...especially across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Hot and humid conditions will persist as well...with the next chance of
storms coming late into the week as a front approaches.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

CORFIDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
227 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-232000-
Washington AR-Crawford AR-Adair OK-
227 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND EAST CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

At 227 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Strickler, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Lincoln...                        Odell...
Clyde...                          Morrow...
Canehill...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Tulsa.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 9460 3596 9440 3577 9428 3567 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 332DEG 11KT 3583 9445