Severe Thunderstorm Warning 411, NWS Tulsa, OK

068 
WWUS54 KTSA 142227
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
527 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

OKC113-117-142245-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0411.000000T0000Z-170714T2245Z/
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
527 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES...

At 527 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 11 miles east of Marland to 8 miles north of Morrison,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and dime size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Ralston...                        

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 9704 3664 9705 3662 9669 3631 9674
      3632 9693 3633 9693 3634 9703 3651 9703
      3651 9701 3653 9698 3653 9696 3655 9692
      3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698
      3659 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 280DEG 16KT 3654 9694 3641 9699 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

874 
WWUS54 KTSA 142246
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
546 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

OKC113-117-142255-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0411.000000T0000Z-170714T2245Z/
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
546 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
limits. Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire. However 
gusty winds to 45 mph are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3660 9704 3664 9705 3662 9669 3631 9674
      3632 9693 3633 9693 3634 9703 3651 9703
      3651 9701 3653 9698 3653 9696 3655 9692
      3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698
      3659 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 271DEG 23KT 3654 9681 3641 9686 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
250 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Residual cloud cover from the morning thunderstorm complex has
helped to keep temperatures below normal across a good chunk of
northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon. An outflow
boundary produced by the complex stretches across southeast
Oklahoma and into west central and southwest Arkansas. The weak
and somewhat diffuse synoptic cool front remains north of the
Oklahoma and Arkansas borders this afternoon but will move toward
the south and west overnight and into tomorrow. Additional
thunderstorms should develop along the front late tonight and
early tomorrow morning, with locally heavy rain existing with the
stronger, slow moving storms. The main thunderstorm axis will
shift southward into tomorrow night and Sunday, as the front sags
through the area. While widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms
will be possible into early next week, especially in the higher
terrain areas, the overall coverage should be low enough after
Sunday to keep below mentionable levels for now.

Behind the cool front, temperatures will be close to normal
tomorrow and maybe a degree or two warmer for Sunday. Ridging will
build back into the region next week, with above normal
temperatures returning and likely peaking toward the mid to latter
part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  92  72  93 /  40  30  10  10
FSM   74  92  73  93 /  40  40  20  20
MLC   72  92  71  92 /  20  40  20  20
BVO   70  91  67  93 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   69  87  66  89 /  40  30  10  20
BYV   68  86  67  90 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   72  91  71  91 /  40  30  20  20
MIO   70  91  68  92 /  40  30  10  10
F10   73  91  71  92 /  20  30  20  20
HHW   74  92  73  92 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
444 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
444 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening through Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...between 5 and 6 pm.

DISCUSSION...

An outflow boundary has pushed south through much of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon. On the western
periphery of the boundary, strong to severe thunderstorms have
developed across north-central Oklahoma. A few of these storms could
move southeast into portion of northeast Oklahoma by early evening
with a marginally severe threat of large hail and damaging winds.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger overnight, but these
storms are not expected to be severe.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Saturday into Sunday across
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas in response to a weak
surface boundary forecast to move through the region. High
pressure looks to build back over the Southern Plains next week
with a return of hot and humid conditions across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.