Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Tulsa, OK

882 
WWUS54 KTSA 100256
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
856 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

ARC015-087-100306-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-170310T0300Z/
Madison AR-Carroll AR-
856 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND
CARROLL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM CST...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
to 50 mph are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for
northwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3612 9360 3649 9382 3646 9329 3612 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 313DEG 39KT 3619 9306 3617 9352 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
549 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this evening and push
south overnight as frontal boundary moves through the region.
Greater potential continues to look like Northwest Arkansas
through 06z and will thus continue tempo groups through this time
period. Behind the front...breezy westerly winds becoming
northerly winds are expected with mostly clear skies for Northeast
Oklahoma. To the south and east...MVFR ceilings look to be
possible late tonight into early Friday morning for Northwest
Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma before clearing out. During the
day Friday...breezy northeasterly winds and some scattered high
clouds are forecast over the CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast challenges today are: 1) Tstorm coverage and
severe potential this afternoon and tonight, 2) Rain chances and
the potential for some wintry weather Saturday and Saturday
evening with the next storm system, and 3) Temps/precip chances
next week given considerable model run to run inconsistencies.

Storms should fire this afternoon mostly likely near the
intersection of a surface trough and an outflow boundary from
ongoing storms that tracked across SE KS and now into W MO. Deep
layer shear is sufficient for organized rotating updrafts, as
indicated by the updraft helicity tracks in the HRRRX and our
local model. Storms will track generally southeast toward NW AR or
possibly as far NE OK late this afternoon and into the evening.
High LCLs due to high T/Td spreads would tend to limit any tornado
potential, at least early on, but conditions could improve this
evening if storms remain cellular long enough. A more southeast
motion would improve storm-relative low level flow in this
environment. Any supercell that can develop could produce some
very large or giant hail. Eventually, storms are expected to
become a multicellular line or cluster and move southeast later
on tonight and transition toward a damaging wind threat. Other
development is possible along the surging back door front later
tonight back into E OK. However, by this time the front should
undercut any storms that are generated along it and would thus
reduce the severe threat.

After a quieter and cooler day Friday behind the front, an upper
storm system is expected to drop southeast over the central Plains
on Saturday. Low-mid level cold frontogenesis combined with broad
QG lift from the storm system will bring widespread rain to start
the weekend to the region. Thermal profiles are expected to get
cold enough by late Saturday and into Saturday evening to allow
the rain to change over to a wintry mix across portions of NW AR,
especially in the higher terrain, before the precip comes to an
end by mid evening or so. It is not out of the question we could
see up to an inch of snow/sleet accumulation in the higher terrain
of Madison and eastern Carroll counties.

The general idea of a more amplified western CONUS ridge and
eastern CONUS trough next week is still there. This pattern should
maintain an overall cooler than average regime for much of next
week. However, the medium range models have had poor run to run
consistency regarding the details, such as frontal timing, and
precip potential. For instance, yesterday's 12Z Euro run had the
next front thru our area Monday and indicated that a warming
trend would begin about midweek as the trough began to lift out
and was drier. Today's run is slower with the early week front and
more reluctant to progress the pattern east, slowing the warm up.
In addition, there is more moisture in the NW flow baroclinic
zone which could bring brief periods of some light precip. Given
lower confidence, I have elected to stay closer to consensus on
temps and keep PoPs low. More adjustments to the forecast will be
needed when details will get ironed out better in the future.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  58  44  46 /  30  10  30  90
FSM   53  64  40  43 /  50  10  20  90
MLC   51  64  46  51 /  30  10  20  90
BVO   38  55  41  47 /  30  10  40  90
FYV   42  57  37  41 /  70  10  20  90
BYV   41  54  34  38 /  80  10  20  90
MKO   47  62  43  46 /  50  10  20  90
MIO   38  53  38  43 /  50  10  40  90
F10   46  61  46  49 /  30  10  20  90
HHW   60  67  46  55 /  30  20  20  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
452 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Extreme northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon through mid evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending after midnight.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK... .

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid to late evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...All eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Generally along and west of a line from Nowata to McAlester.
	ONSET...Ongoing...improving after sunset.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered severe storms are ongoing across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri with additional development expected into far
northeast Oklahoma this evening. Storms will initially remain
discrete and capable of very large hail with a limited risk of
tornadoes. During the mid to late evening hours the storms are
likely to congeal into a larger thunderstorm complex as they
develop east and southeast. This will transition the primary
severe weather risk to locally damaging winds. The severe weather
risk is expected to diminish during the late evening hours with
storms weakening below severe limits after midnight.

Fire weather concerns will also continue until sunset across
portions of eastern Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Winter Weather Potential.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Cooler temperatures will overspread the region Friday and
more so on Saturday as widespread rain and a stronger
cold front move through the region. Temperatures across
the higher terrain of far northwest Arkansas may cool
sufficiently to allow for light snow accumulations by
early Sunday morning. Dry and cool weather will then prevail
through the middle of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
732 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             6 NE GROVE              36.65N 94.69W
03/09/2017  E1.75 INCH       DELAWARE           OK   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN CAYUGA.

&&

AEJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
732 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

OKZ062-063-068-100200-
Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Mayes OK-
732 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...
SOUTHEASTERN MAYES AND NORTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CST...

At 731 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sportsmen Acres
Community, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Chouteau...                       Locust Grove...
Rose...                           Sportsmen Acres Community...
Murphy...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3618 9534 3627 9530 3626 9494 3605 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 280DEG 29KT 3622 9526

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
744 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             3 NW GROVE              36.62N 94.81W
03/09/2017  E1.75 INCH       DELAWARE           OK   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR SAILBOAT BRIDGE NORTHWEST OF
            GROVE ON HWY 59. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

AEJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
759 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

OKZ063-068-069-100230-
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
759 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHWESTERN
ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CST...

At 758 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Peggs, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Penny to Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
West Siloam Springs...            Kansas...
Oaks...                           Leach...
Proctor...                        Christie...
Scraper...                        Twin Oaks...
Natural Falls State Park...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3622 9457 3587 9464 3608 9506 3616 9502
      3616 9501 3619 9501 3624 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 294DEG 37KT 3611 9498

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
801 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

OKZ067-068-070-100230-
Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-
801 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...
SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CST...

At 800 PM CST, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles east of Tullahassee to 4 miles southeast of
Haskell. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Penny to Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Fort Gibson...
Okay...                           Braggs...
Taft...                           Tullahassee...
Pumpkin Center...                 Summit...
Jamesville...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for
east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3576 9575 3588 9536 3582 9492 3557 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 289DEG 33KT 3584 9538 3576 9564

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             GRAVETTE                36.42N 94.45W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

&&

AEJ