Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Tulsa, OK

847 
WWUS54 KTSA 272337
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
637 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

OKC113-147-280000-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-170528T0000Z/
Osage OK-Washington OK-
637 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL OSAGE AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 636 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Okesa, moving 
east at 25 mph. At 630 pm...park service employees reported golfball 
size hail at Osage Hills State Park.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Dewey...
Osage Hills State Park...         Okesa...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3663 9628 3675 9629 3691 9581 3662 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 252DEG 21KT 3670 9614 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

69

904 
WWUS54 KTSA 272348
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

OKC113-147-280000-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-170528T0000Z/
Osage OK-Washington OK-
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL OSAGE AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 648 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of
Bartlesville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Dewey...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3663 9611 3680 9614 3691 9581 3662 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 265DEG 33KT 3670 9600 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

69

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
An extremely unstable airmass over the region ahead of a cold
front and dryline will set the stage for numerous severe
thunderstorms over the region this TAF period. The most likely
time window at each site was the time frame used in the Tempo
groups. VFR conditions will prevail outside of storms this
evening, with IFR potential if storms hit the airports. MVFR and
possibly even IFR cigs will overspread the region behind the
front, with a trend toward VFR on Sunday as cooler and drier air
in the low levels moves into the region.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 259 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Conditions are prime for significant severe weather later this
afternoon and overnight across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Extreme instability is currently in place and effective
shear values are supportive of organized updrafts. These
conditions will support all modes of severe weather including
destructive winds, giant hail, and possibly a few strong
tornadoes.

The details on how the eventual convection evolves are less clear
however a likely scenario is of supercells initiating both along
the boundary from NE OK into far NW AR, and further south
along the dryline in south central OK. Currently expanding mid
cloud across central OK is likely a zone of enhanced lift yet to
overspread the region. The capping inversion has continued to
weaken and any further lift along with localized sfc convergence
is expected to spark storm development. Storms further south along
the dryline may be more delayed in development but nevertheless
will also pose significant severe weather potential. The severe
weather threat will continue into the overnight hours awaiting
the passing cold front to clear the area from northwest to
southeast.

The remainder of the forecast is expected to be rather tranquil as
dry weather prevails for early week with increasing thunderstorm
chances for mid to late week. Flow aloft is forecast to weaken
considerably as the westerlies lift well north thus reducing the
severe weather potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  81  58  87 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   71  83  60  87 /  70  10   0   0
MLC   67  80  57  86 /  70  10   0   0
BVO   62  81  53  87 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   64  77  51  82 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   66  78  54  82 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   66  79  57  86 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   64  80  54  84 /  60  10   0  10
F10   66  80  57  86 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   71  81  61  87 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-067>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TONIGHT WITH DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Late afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and north of Interstate 44 through early evening,
    then along and south of Interstate 44 tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface mesoanalysis shows boundary across far northeast
Oklahoma. OK mesonet observations and radar data suggest
convective towers are developing along a line from just north of
Vinita southwest toward central Osage County - near Pawhuska. We
are monitoring this area for first development this afternoon.

Elevated showers and storms are approaching from central Oklahoma
with a few lightning strikes noted. The cap has held strong to
this point but once the cap is breached, explosive storm
development is likely given extreme instability in place. All
modes of severe will be likely, including very large hail,
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Eventually, storms will increase in coverage and likely
transition toward a damaging wind threat by mid to late evening as
they develop southeastward. Additionally, an axis of heavy
rainfall is likely from northwest Arkansas through eastern
Oklahoma. Recent heavy rainfall may allow for rapid onset flash
flooding in a few locations.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Regional Spotter Network has been activated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms will begin to shift southeast of the region Sunday morning
with dry conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Low thunderstorm
chances return mid to late week, with limited additional severe
weather potential.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
A Tornado Watch is in effect through midnight for all of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Initiation of storms is expected
within the next hour or so. The holiday weekend will provide
numerous outdoor exposures which will further increase the
potential for a rapid safety response. Outdoor activities may need
to be cancelled this evening, especially if you are unable to
quickly move indoors to a substantial shelter.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

CORFIDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
550 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             6 W MIAMI               36.87N 94.99W
05/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       OTTAWA             OK   STORM CHASER

&&

SFP