Flood Watch 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

031 
WGUS64 KTSA 280830
FFATSA

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
330 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017


ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ067>076-280930-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170528T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-
Haskell-Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, 
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, 
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Wagoner, Tahlequah, Stilwell, 
Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton, 
and Poteau
330 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for portions of Arkansas and Oklahoma has been
cancelled. The heaviest rains have pushed south and east of the region. 

$$

OKZ049-053-281200-
/O.CON.KTSA.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170528T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pushmataha-Choctaw-
Including the cities of Antlers, Clayton, and Hugo
330 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Oklahoma...including the following 
  counties...Choctaw and Pushmataha. 

* Until 7 AM CDT this morning

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread
  across far southeastern Oklahoma early this morning. Additional
  locally excessive rainfall amounts are possible. Recent heavy 
  rainfall may result in rapid onset of flash flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

&&

$$

305 
WGUS64 KTSA 280936
FFATSA

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
436 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017



OKZ049-053-281045-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170528T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pushmataha-Choctaw-
Including the cities of Antlers, Clayton, and Hugo
436 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Oklahoma has been
cancelled. The heaviest rains have pushed south of the Red River. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Ongoing MVFR ceilings will continue to lift by mid afternoon.
Thunderstorms expected to develop in the vicinity of approaching
cold front and possibly ahead of dryline, likely during the 23-01Z
time frame. Continue to cover most likely time frames for TSRA
with tempo groups, including a mention of severe wind gust
potential. A second round of thunderstorms later in the
evening/early tomorrow morning is most likely to affect MLC/FSM,
which is covered with a PROB30. Winds shift to a N to NW direction
behind the cold front by tomorrow morning, with MVFR ceilings
prevailing through the end of the valid TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1118 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Forecast is largely on track.
Early morning convection has produced a substantial reinforcement
to the cold frontal boundary which currently extends from far NW
OK to along the KS OK border in NE OK. Short term solutions seem
somewhat aggressive in lifting this boundary northward this
afternoon and we tend to favor a more southern solution which
places a focus nearer NE OK. An additional area of concern will be
the dryline extending from the cold front southward through south
central OK by late afternoon. Both of these boundaries are likely
to serve as a focus for storm development later this afternoon.

The environment is extremely unstable with 35 to 50 kts of deep
layer shear overspreading the warm sector. Low level winds are
less impressive however the aforementioned cold front would be a
prime zone for enhanced low level shear especially given the level
of instability. Further south along the dryline convective
initiation is less certain however the idea of hot temps and deep
dryline circulation may well be enough to erode the cap. Initial
storm development within this zone could be a bit high based and
HRRR solutions offer impressive downburst wind signatures. By
early evening however any sustained supercell across SE OK looks
to experience a period of enhanced low level shear and forecast
hodographs become increasingly concerning before the cold front
and/or combined outflow boundary from storms further north
overtake any cellular activity.

Regardless the exact evolution the atmosphere is capable of
significant severe weather this afternoon through the early
morning hours. Stay weather aware.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1225 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND HAIL
   EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...mid afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and south of Interstate 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and south of Interstate 44.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon
across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.  These
storms are expected to continue increasing in coverage
and intensity through the afternoon.  Severe storms
are likely to develop into northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas during the early afternoon hours
with significant severe weather possible.  Additional
severe storms are expected further west across northeast
Oklahoma during the afternoon and may also develop
southward into southeast Oklahoma by afternoon.
Conditions through early evening are supportive of
significant severe weather including destructive winds,
giant hail, and strong tornadoes.  The storms will increase
in coverage and likely transition toward a damaging wind
threat by mid to late evening as they develop southeastward.

Additionally, an axis of heavy rainfall is likely from
northwest Arkansas through eastern Oklahoma.  Recent
heavy rainfall may allow for rapid onset flash flooding
in a few locations.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms will begin to shift southeast of the region Sunday morning
with dry conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Low thunderstorm
chances return mid to late week, with limited additional severe
weather potential.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Severe weather watches and warnings should be expected late this
afternoon and evening. The holiday weekend will provide numerous
outdoor exposures which will further increase the potential for a
rapid safety response. Outdoor activities may need to be cancelled
this evening, especially if you are unable to quickly move indoors
to a substantial shelter.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.