Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Broken line of ongoing convection across Eastern Oklahoma will
continue to shift eastward into Northwest Arkansas overnight
tonight and into Wednesday as a cold front makes its way through
the region. Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible within the
convection. Behind the frontal passage...north to northwesterly
winds along with continued possible showers will be possible into
the afternoon hours Wednesday for Eastern Oklahoma and into the
early evening hours for Northwest Arkansas before exiting the
region Wednesday night. Also behind the front...MVFR conditions
look to spread across the region late tonight and Wednesday with
parts of Northeast Oklahoma possibly lifting back to VFR toward
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 941 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Convection continues to increase in coverage near the frontal
boundary that is moving into northeast Oklahoma at this time. A
few of the storms have been severe, and the severe weather threat
will continue well into the overnight hours as the storms continue
to move off to the east and northeast. Locally heavy rainfall will
also become a concern overnight as multiple storms may train over
the same location. Have raised pops overnight given current
trends. Have also lowered overnight low temperatures given the
magnitude of the cold air spreading south across Kansas behind the
cold front. Temperatures will be slow to rise Wednesday, so also
lowered those high temperatures slightly.

Update on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  70  56  76 /  10  10  40  30
FSM   42  74  56  82 /  20  10  30  40
MLC   41  74  58  80 /   0  10  10  30
BVO   38  68  51  74 /  10  20  40  30
FYV   39  68  54  76 /  20  10  40  50
BYV   40  68  55  77 /  20  10  30  40
MKO   43  71  56  78 /  10  10  30  40
MIO   37  67  53  75 /  20  10  40  30
F10   44  72  58  75 /  10  10  20  20
HHW   43  75  58  80 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ056>058-060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
429 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
429 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK BEGINS TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and northwest of an Okemah to Vinita line.
	ONSET...7-10 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas before midnight,
			Northwest Arkansas into Southeast Oklahoma after midnight.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and north of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and north of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

DISCUSSION...

An elevated or enhanced risk of severe storms is forecast this
evening and overnight across northeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas. Large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter
and wind gusts to 70 mph will be the main threats. Isolated
tornadoes are possible with discrete storms and with any kinks or
bows in the eventual squall line. There is a limited risk of
flooding mainly late this evening into the overnight hours.

Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop by
around 6 or 7 PM to the northwest of Tulsa near a merging dryline
and cold front. These storms are expected to lift northeast into
Kansas. Other storms are expected to develop farther south along
the merging dryline and front over central Oklahoma by 8 or 9 PM.
These storms will move quickly into northeast Oklahoma thru the
evening hours, gradually becoming a line and marching east into far
northwest Arkansas by around midnight. More storms will develop on
the outflow reinforced front over east central Oklahoma into west
central Arkansas after midnight. The severe threat is expected to
wane after midnight, while the flooding risk increases, as the
tendency for storms to train over the same areas increases.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

There will be storms ongoing early Wednesday morning, and
depending on the evolution of the squall line and cold front,
there may be a threat for additional severe storms Wednesday
across mainly far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

The stormy pattern will continue with additional severe weather
and heavy rain Friday and Saturday. With the approach of
an upper level storm system Friday afternoon...storms will develop
with the potential for large hail...damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. The severe potential will continue into Saturday...but
the main hazard may transition to heavy rain and flooding Saturday
into Sunday. At least 2 to 3 inches of rain is likely...with
localized higher amounts of 5 or 6 inches. This will definitely
cause some flash flooding and river flooding across portions of
the area this weekend.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

An active week of weather is expected across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and be
prepared for any watches or warnings that may be issued for your
area.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE HIGHFILL          36.28N 94.31W
04/26/2017  M61 MPH          BENTON             AR   ASOS

            MEASURED BY ASOS AT NW ARKANSAS REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

CAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
113 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW BENTONVILLE       36.37N 94.23W
04/26/2017                   BENTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN...POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO CARPORT.
            ESTIMATED 70 MPH.

&&

CAS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>