River Flood Advisory 9, NWS Tulsa, OK

733 
WGUS84 KTSA 261416
FLSTSA
FLOOD ADVISORY 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 
916 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Illinois River at Chewey affecting Adair...Cherokee and Delaware 
  Counties
  Illinois River near Tahlequah affecting Cherokee County

OKC001-021-041-261446-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-170427T1326Z/
/CWYO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
916 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  The Illinois River at Chewey
  and has been replaced by a Flood Warning.
* At  8:15 AM Wednesday, the stage was 5.8 feet.
* Action stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by early
  Thursday morning. Therefore the Flood Advisory is cancelled for 
  this location and has been replaced by a Flood Warning. Please 
  refer to the Flood Warning and any follow up statements for further
  information.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, minor flooding occurs from near Fidler's Bend
  to near Hanging Rock. Water begins to affect access to Winset 
  Hollow. Road access near the river to residential homes southeast 
  of Chewey Bridge may be compromised. Water impacts 630 Road east of
  the Cherokee/Adair County line. Extreme turbulence makes the river 
  unsafe for floating.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3619 9472 3611 9471 3606 9481 3612 9487

$$

OKC021-261446-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170427T1326Z/
/TALO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
916 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  The Illinois River near Tahlequah
  and has been replaced by a Flood Warning.
* At  8:00 AM Wednesday, the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Action stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by 
  Thursday morning. Therefore the Flood Advisory is cancelled for 
  this location and has been replaced by a Flood Warning. Please 
  refer to the Flood Warning and any follow up statements for further
  information.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, moderate flooding occurs from Hanging Rock 
  downstream towards Tahlequah. Access roads east of the Combs Bridge
  near Eagles Bluff will be impassable. Extreme turbulence makes the 
  river too hazardous for floating.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3612 9487 3606 9481 3576 9487 3576 9496 3603 9496

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
647 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing convection is expected to continue to develop and spread
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening and
overnight as a cold front enters the CWA tonight. Will continue
tempo groups for all TAF sites for timing of greater potential.
Behind the frontal passage...scattered rain showers and
northwesterly winds will remain possible into the afternoon hours
over the CWA Wednesday before the boundary exits off to the east
southeast. VFR conditions should continue into the overnight hours
and look to fall into MVFR conditions late tonight and continue
much of the day Wednesday behind the front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front currently poised to our west across northwest Oklahoma
will provide the spark for strong to severe thunderstorms across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tonight. Not expecting to
see any storms develop in northeast Oklahoma until around 00z as
a mid-level shortwave begins to influence the area. Damaging winds
and large hail will be the main concerns with the severe storms.
However, there will be a window early in the event with the potential
for tornadoes as the cells remain more discrete. As we approach the
midnight hour, the thunderstorms will begin to line out along the front.
The threat for severe weather will diminish as we move through the
overnight hours.

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday along the cold front
across western Arkansas and as the main mid-level shortwave moves across
the area. It is possible that some of these storms could be strong to severe
as well. Temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday in the wake of the
cold front. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to end Wednesday evening
as a the main mid-level low exits the region to the east.

The chances of elevated showers and thunderstorms will return to northern portions
of the area Thursday night with isentropic lift taking place north of a surface
boundary that extends across eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. The weather
on Friday is expected to be dry with the frontal boundary becoming positioned near
the red river. Thunderstorms are expected to become widespread Friday night into Saturday
as the frontal boundary lingers across the area and isentropic lift intensifies.
The showers and thunderstorms will come to an end on Sunday as a mid-level low
sweeps through the area. Severe weather will be possible both Friday night and again
on Saturday with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. Heavy rain and flooding
will also be an issue with 2 to 4 inches of rain possible during late in the week and
into the weekend.

Drier conditions are expected early next week as high pressure prevails.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  57  40  66 /  60  60  20  10
FSM   65  68  43  71 /  60  80  30  10
MLC   61  61  41  71 /  60  70  10  10
BVO   51  57  39  66 /  60  50  20  10
FYV   61  62  40  66 /  60  80  40  10
BYV   62  65  41  65 /  60  80  50  10
MKO   58  59  41  68 /  60  70  20  10
MIO   54  56  39  65 /  60  70  40  10
F10   55  58  41  69 /  60  60  10  10
HHW   66  70  43  72 /  60  70  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
429 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
429 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK BEGINS TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and northwest of an Okemah to Vinita line.
	ONSET...7-10 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas before midnight,
			Northwest Arkansas into Southeast Oklahoma after midnight.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and north of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and north of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

DISCUSSION...

An elevated or enhanced risk of severe storms is forecast this
evening and overnight across northeast Oklahoma into far
northwest Arkansas. Large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter
and wind gusts to 70 mph will be the main threats. Isolated
tornadoes are possible with discrete storms and with any kinks or
bows in the eventual squall line. There is a limited risk of
flooding mainly late this evening into the overnight hours.

Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop by
around 6 or 7 PM to the northwest of Tulsa near a merging dryline
and cold front. These storms are expected to lift northeast into
Kansas. Other storms are expected to develop farther south along
the merging dryline and front over central Oklahoma by 8 or 9 PM.
These storms will move quickly into northeast Oklahoma thru the
evening hours, gradually becoming a line and marching east into far
northwest Arkansas by around midnight. More storms will develop on
the outflow reinforced front over east central Oklahoma into west
central Arkansas after midnight. The severe threat is expected to
wane after midnight, while the flooding risk increases, as the
tendency for storms to train over the same areas increases.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

There will be storms ongoing early Wednesday morning, and
depending on the evolution of the squall line and cold front,
there may be a threat for additional severe storms Wednesday
across mainly far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

The stormy pattern will continue with additional severe weather
and heavy rain Friday and Saturday. With the approach of
an upper level storm system Friday afternoon...storms will develop
with the potential for large hail...damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. The severe potential will continue into Saturday...but
the main hazard may transition to heavy rain and flooding Saturday
into Sunday. At least 2 to 3 inches of rain is likely...with
localized higher amounts of 5 or 6 inches. This will definitely
cause some flash flooding and river flooding across portions of
the area this weekend.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

An active week of weather is expected across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and be
prepared for any watches or warnings that may be issued for your
area.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

OKZ054-252345-
Osage OK-
621 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

At 621 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Burbank, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Eastern Kaw Lake...               Webb City...
Apperson...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9633 3696 9627 3661 9672 3672 9689
      3675 9686 3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675
      3688 9675 3700 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 219DEG 40KT 3673 9675

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

OKZ054-260015-
Osage OK-
640 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northeast
of Foraker, and another was located 5 miles west southwest of
Foraker, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Elgin...                          Foraker...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9626 3676 9658 3685 9671 3700 9658
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 219DEG 49KT 3691 9653

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
709 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

OKZ054-059-260045-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
709 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND WESTERN PAWNEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 709 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles northeast of Morrison to 5 miles south of
Glencoe. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Jennings...
Ralston...                        Maramec...
Skedee...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3661 9666 3618 9657 3616 9667 3616 9682
      3624 9682 3625 9684 3625 9692 3631 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 227DEG 43KT 3632 9693 3616 9696

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
716 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

OKZ054-260045-
Osage OK-
716 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

At 716 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Burbank, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Elgin...                          Bigheart...
Pearsonia...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9623 3688 9609 3659 9662 3667 9680
      3700 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 230DEG 39KT 3668 9663

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
757 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

OKZ054-260130-
Osage OK-
757 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 756 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Pearsonia, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Bigheart...
Osage Hills State Park...         Hulah...
Wah Sha She State Park...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3677 9600 3670 9629 3686 9640
      3700 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 235DEG 25KT 3682 9635

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
818 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

OKZ054>056-060-061-260200-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
818 PM CDT TUE APR 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...EAST
CENTRAL OSAGE...WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA AND NORTHEASTERN
TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles east of Pawhuska to 5 miles south of Barnsdall
to 4 miles northeast of Osage. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Skiatook...
Dewey...                          Barnsdall...
Ramona...                         Ochelata...
Avant...                          Vera...
Okesa...                          Tallant...
Wolco...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3684 9575 3667 9569 3644 9577 3640 9579
      3632 9613 3671 9626
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 243DEG 39KT 3669 9625 3649 9619 3632 9634

Lacy