River Flood Warning 22, NWS Tulsa, OK

283 
WGUS84 KTSA 270133
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
833 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Arkansas...Oklahoma...

  Arkansas River at Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sebastian 
  Counties. 
  
  Lee Creek near Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sequoyah Counties. 
  
ARC033-131-270933-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0021.170427T0133Z-170427T2024Z/
/VBUA4.1.ER.170426T2216Z.170427T0600Z.170427T1424Z.NO/
833 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River at Van Buren.
* until Thursday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 PM Wednesday, the stage was 22.48 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Arkansas River at Van Buren will continue rising to 
  near 22.8 feet Thursday before dawn. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage late Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, minor lowland flooding occurs along the 
  shoreline from the I-540 bridge east towards Lavaca.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3549 9439 3539 9422 3531 9422 3531 9454 3540 9454

$$

ARC033-OKC135-270538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170427T0538Z/
/VBRA4.1.ER.170426T2117Z.170426T2152Z.170426T2338Z.UU/
833 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Lee Creek near Van Buren.
* until late tonight, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  4:52 PM Wednesday, the stage was 401.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 401.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling to below flood stage by 
  this evening.
* Impact...At 402.0 feet, the access road into Tailwater Park may be 
  impassable due to high water. The recreational vehicle campground 
  near Rena Road is affected by high water.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3554 9437 3542 9437 3542 9442 3554 9452

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
320 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A significant heavy rain and flood event expected to unfold Friday night
and into the weekend with 3 to 7 inches of rain common with locally
higher amounts possible. The axis of heaviest rain looks to be south and
east of Interstate 44. These amounts of rain will lead to widespread
flash flooding and increased main-stem river flooding. A flood watch
for this time frame will likely be issued later Tonight or Thursday morning.

As for Tonight, Patchy light rain will be possible early this evening
across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a mid-level shortwave
currently over central Oklahoma moves across the region. Temperatures Tonight
are expected to be about 10 degrees below normal with readings generally
in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The area will be between systems on Thursday. However, southerly winds will
begin to increase as the next storm system takes shape in the lee of the Rockies.
The chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night across
northern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as mid-level shortwave moves across
the central plains and insentropic lift increases north of a warm front lifting
into southern Oklahoma.

On Friday, the warm front will continue to lift north before becoming quasi-stationary
near Interstate 40. This will set the stage for the potential for severe weather Friday
evening into Friday night as a cold front slowly moves into the increasingly unstable
airmass and as a mid-level low over the Four Corners Region exerts greater influence
over the area. Thunderstorms are expected to begin to develop late Friday afternoon
in the vicinity of the cold front and spread into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
during the evening hours. These storms will have the greatest potential to become severe
with Large hail and damaging winds the main concern. However, tornadoes will be possible
as well.

The event morphs more into a heavy rain and flood event late Friday night and on Saturday
as the frontal boundary lingers across the region and the Four Corners mid-level low slowly
pulls out into the Plains. The showers and thunderstorms come to an end by Sunday evening
as the mid-level low pulls of to the northeast of the area.

Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure prevails. The chances of showers
and thunderstorms return Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next storm system approaches
from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  68  55  76 /  10  10  40  20
FSM   43  71  57  81 /  20   0  20  30
MLC   41  72  59  78 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   39  67  51  74 /  10  10  50  20
FYV   40  68  56  76 /  20  10  30  30
BYV   41  67  55  74 /  20   0  40  30
MKO   41  70  56  76 /  10  10  30  30
MIO   39  67  53  74 /  20  10  60  30
F10   42  70  58  76 /  10  20  20  30
HHW   43  72  58  79 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
508 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
508 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY through TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
There will be a brief lull in thunderstorms into Thursday between
weather systems. Additional storms may form Thursday evening as
the next low pressure system approaches.

On Friday, a warm front will move north across central and
eastern Oklahoma and be a focus for strong to severe
thunderstorms. The airmass may remain capped much of the afternoon
on Friday, with the better chance for storms developing by late
afternoon into early evening. Strong deep layer wind shear and
moderate instability will support supercells capable of large
hail, damaging winds and tornadoes across much of the Southern
Plains. Eventually, these late afternoon and evening storms will
form a large complex of storms, with the potential for heavy rain.

Flooding is becoming an increasing concern for this weekend's
upcoming storm system. It now appears that 6-7 inches of rain is
possible for parts of southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas
with isolated higher amounts. This will cause river flooding as
well as flash flooding.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to follow the latest updates regarding the expected
hazardous weather this week.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N BEAVER              36.49N 93.77W
04/26/2017                   CARROLL            AR   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFS IN AND
            AROUND HOLIDAY ISLAND

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     TORNADO          3 SW ADAIR              36.41N 95.31W
04/25/2017                   MAYES              OK   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A SECOND TORNADO PATH NEAR ADAIR IS BEING SURVERYED BY A
            NWS TEAM. THE RATING PROCESS IS INCOMPLETE. THE INITIAL
            RATING IS EF-1.

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ROGERS                  36.33N 94.12W
04/26/2017                   BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            WIND ESTIMATED TO 65 MPH 2.25 MILES SOUTH OF THE ROGERS
            AIRPORT...TREES DOWN IN THE AREA

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
431 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE BELLA VISTA       36.40N 94.15W
04/26/2017                   BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

            SMALL TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE...NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS DOWN

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E OWASSO              36.27N 95.80W
04/25/2017                   ROGERS             OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     HAIL             1 N STIDHAM             35.38N 95.70W
04/26/2017  E1.00 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   PUBLIC

&&

SFP