Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Topeka, KS

561 
WWUS53 KTOP 170417
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1117 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

KSC013-170426-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-170617T0415Z/
Brown-
1117 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BROWN COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Southwest Brown county until 1200 AM

LAT...LON 4000 9534 3965 9534 3965 9552 4000 9568
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 296DEG 44KT 3987 9434 3972 9449 3969 9478 

$$

Gargan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
639 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

As of 19z the pesky upper low across southern Canada continues to
rotate about its axis. Zonal to slight northwest upper flow
continues across the central Plains. Surface analysis has revealed a
nearly stationary front oriented from the Tx Panhandle, northward to
north central NE, then eastward towards the NE/MN/IA border region.
Surface wind profiles are veered across western KS and much of
southwestern NE at the moment. Therefore, convergence along the
front is currently minimal. Southerly winds continue to advect low
70 dew points across the area once again. This moist BL coupled with
steep mid level lapse rates will result in a conditionally unstable
environment with upwards of 4000 J/KG MLcape. A strong EML beginning
near 900mb should inhibit any warm sector development across the
area this afternoon, given the convective temperature near 98F. Hi
Res and CAM suggest thunderstorms will develop along the east
oriented boundary in northern Nebraska. Storms are expected to grow
upscale into an MCS across central NE. Mean layer flow is oriented
ESE, however given the plentiful moisture and instability across the
forecast area, a deviation to more of a southeasterly movement is
likely. This solution would likely bring storms to the northeastern
half of the CWA. Effective bulk shear values near 30-40 knots
suggests organized convection continuing with large hail bowing
segments the main hazards. Guidance suggests thunderstorm chances
entering the CWA near 00Z and exiting east central KS by 06Z.

We then turn our attention to Saturday for the potential for more
thunderstorms and dangerous heat. The vast majority of the CWA will
remain in the warm sector with dew points remaining near 70 to
perhaps the middle 70s. This sultry environment coupled with
afternoon temperatures approaching 100, will result in heat indicies
105 to 110 for areas along and south of Interstate 70. As the
synoptic boundary sinks southward in result to the upper wave eject
during the late afternoon hours, thunderstorm chances will begin to
increase. Forecast soundings suggest ML parcels will most likely
remain capped for much of the day. The bulk of thunderstorm activity
looks to occur after 00z tomorrow evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Saturday evening is still looking good for severe weather once
again. Frontal boundary will be moving through the cwa with forecast
MLCAPE of 4000-6000 J/kg with 40 to 50 kts of 0-6km shear and steep
mid level lapse rates. This will be conducive for supercells to
develop then move southeast during the evening hours. The front is
forecast to move southeast through the evening and into southeast
Kansas as the upper level trough moves southeast into the
Mississippi Valley. Damaging straight-line winds and large hail.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight Saturday
into Sunday morning behind the boundary as embedded shortwave
withing the upper trough moves through.

Cooler air will move into the area on Sunday giving a needed break
from the heat with highs cooling back into the 80s along with lower
humidity. Northwest upper flow is expected from Sunday through
Wednesday with zonal flow by the end of the week. Surface high is
expected to move off to the east on Tuesday with return flow
expected across north central and northeast Kansas. Some periodic
chances for storms are possible Tuesday night through Friday as
embedded waves move through the central Plains in the upper flow.
Models differ on timing and will likely make adjustments as time
goes on. Temperatures in the 80s Tuesday will warm back up into the
90s for Wednesday through Friday. Lows will cool off into the 50s
Monday morning then warming back into the 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

After 3Z a line of storms moving southeast across southeast NE
may clip the KTOP and KFOE terminals. Though one of the higher
spatial resolution models keep storms well north and northeast of
the terminals. The low-level jet will increase to 40 to 50 KTS
from 3Z through 9Z, thus there will be low-level windshear in the
lowest 2000 feet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ022>024-026-
035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
343 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-172045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
343 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms, some severe, are possible tonight. The storms are
expected move southeast across parts of north central, northeast
or east central Kansas and be capable of large hail and damaging
winds.

Heat indices will range between 100 and 105 degrees late this
afternoon. Take precautions if working outside during the heat of
the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Saturday afternoon,
especially across portions of far northeast Kansas and east
central Kansas where heat indices of 105 to 110 are expected. As
a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for those locations.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the outlook area late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The primary hazards
will be large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1024 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW OKETO             39.97N 96.62W
06/16/2017  E60 MPH          MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT 77 HIGHWAY NEAR THE STATE LINE. PULLED THE HARD SHELL
            COVER OF A PICKUP TRUCK OFF OF THE TRUCK.

&&

HENNECKE