Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Topeka, KS

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WWUS53 KTOP 172331
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
631 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

KSC041-061-127-197-180000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-170618T0000Z/
Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-
631 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL DICKINSON...SOUTHERN GEARY...NORTHERN MORRIS AND
WEST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

At 630 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
Woodbine, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  White City around 655 PM CDT. 
  Dwight around 700 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 9695 3902 9636 3872 9642 3886 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 281DEG 26KT 3888 9691 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Skow

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

KSC041-061-127-197-180000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-170618T0000Z/
Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-
636 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL DICKINSON...SOUTHERN GEARY...NORTHERN MORRIS AND
WEST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

At 636 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
Woodbine, moving east at 35 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
         siding, and vehicles. 

This severe storm will be near...
  White City around 650 PM CDT. 
  Dwight around 700 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 9692 3897 9637 3872 9642 3886 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 286DEG 33KT 3886 9688 

HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
251 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Early this afternoon, a frontal boundary was oriented southwest to
northeast across the CWA bisecting roughly from Ottawa to northern
Jackson county.  This frontal boundary will be the focus for storms
this afternoon and evening as a mid level shortwave sweeps across
the Central Plains.  While a cap remains in place most of the
afternoon, models do show an erosion late afternoon which would
allow for quick storm initation and intensification.  A highly
unstable atmosphere is in place with CAPE over 4000 J/kg and shear
values between 35-45 knots.  This would allow for storms to quickly
turn severe with supercells possible during initial development.
With steep lapse rates above the current EML, large hail and
damaging winds would be the main hazard with any storms, although an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.  Some hi-res guidance
suggests storms will develop in northern MO and build into
northeastern KS this afternoon.  Initial singular cells may begin to
form clusters as time goes on with some bowing segments within these
clusters.  If this occurred, the wind risk would be greatly
enhanced.  Location wise, the best chances for severe convection
looks to be along and south of I-70.  Storms will advance southeast
through the night, although post frontal showers and storms will be
possible through the early morning hours.  After tonight, dry
conditions can be expected with surface high pressure moving
directly over Kansas by tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures this afternoon have been steadily rising into the low
90s, with mid to upper 90s expected as highs.  With dewpoints in the
70s, heat indicies look on track to reach between 100-110 degrees
across the entire area, with the hottest indices in east central
Kansas.  A heat advisory will remain in effect until 7PM this
evening for portions of the area. With the frontal passage in store
this evening, cooler temperatures can be expected tomorrow
along with less oppressive dewpoints.  Highs tomorrow look to top
out in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Sunday night through Tuesday, an upper level trough will amplify
across the eastern conus and keep the central plains in
northwesterly flow aloft. Expect drier and cooler weather with
Highs on Monday in the mid 80s and highs on Tuesday in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

Tuesday night through Saturday, the mid and upper level flow will
become more zonal and a lee surface trough will deepen across the
high plains. Southerly low-level winds will advect deeper
moisture northward. Minor shortwave troughs embedded within the
zonal mid level flow may provide enough ascent for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms through the period. Highs will warm into
the mid to upper 90s Wednesday through Friday, and heat indices
once again may reach advisory criteria. A slightly stronger upper
trough will move across the northern and central plains on Friday
and will cause a surface cold front to push southward across the
CWA Friday night. Saturday may be cooler and drier if the front
can push southward into OK before becoming stationary. Highs on
Saturday may only reach the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Tricky forecast on timing and location of storms late afternoon
into the morning hours. A frontal boundary remains in the area and
where it is located will be where storms develop this afternoon.
Some hi-res guidance initiates storms near terminals at 21Z with
post frontal showers and storms through early morning. With this
uncertainty, have a long period of VCTS in the TAFs until details
on storm evolution become more clear.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ022>024-026-
035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Heller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
356 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-182100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
356 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Another round of thunderstorms are forecast this evening across
eastern Kansas. The storms should develop after 4 pm and exit the
area by 10 pm. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Local flash
flooding is possible if the storms traverse over the same areas
that received heavy rain Friday night.

A heat advisory remains in effect until 7 pm for areas along and
south of a line from Abilene to Manhattan to Holton. Heat indices
are forecast to range between 105 and 110 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
407 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 AM     HAIL             5 S WAVERLY             38.33N 95.60W
06/17/2017  M2.75 INCH       COFFEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
410 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E WHITING             39.59N 95.60W
06/16/2017  E60 MPH          JACKSON            KS   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL 2-4 INCH LIMBS DOWN, FARM EQUIPMENT
            BLOWN AROUND.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
438 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE HORTON            39.67N 95.52W
06/16/2017  E70 MPH          BROWN              KS   PUBLIC

            HORTON LAKE. 3 RV'S BLOWN ONTO THEIR SIDES,
            ONE BLOWN SIDEWAYS. SEVERAL BRANCHES DOWN.
            TIME AND SPEED ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
445 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     HAIL             LYNDON                  38.61N 95.68W
06/17/2017  E2.50 INCH       OSAGE              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
458 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     HAIL             5 NE DELIA              39.29N 95.90W
06/17/2017  E1.50 INCH       JACKSON            KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&