Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Topeka, KS

June 15, 2017Washington County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 15, 2017, 6:47 PM CDT for Washington County, Kansas. It was in force for 43 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2017, 6:47 PM CDT (23:47 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2017, 7:30 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Washington County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 15, 7:03 PM CDT	HAIL 1	4 Sse Morrowville, KS
Jun 15, 7:03 PM CDT	HAIL 1	5 Sse Morrowville, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 16 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 15, 1:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2057 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -170 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1113 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 42 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

666 
WUUS53 KTOP 152347
SVRTOP
KSC201-160030-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0085.170615T2347Z-170616T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

The National Weather Service in Topeka has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Washington County in north central Kansas...

* Until 730 PM CDT

* At 647 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
  Haddam, moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Washington, Linn and Morrowville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9736 3982 9737 3991 9706 3969 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 250DEG 13KT 3974 9728 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Sanders

3 follow-up statements

938 
WWUS53 KTOP 160010
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
710 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

KSC201-160030-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-170616T0030Z/
Washington-
710 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

At 710 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Washington,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Washington and Morrowville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 9716 3986 9722 3991 9706 3973 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 251DEG 22KT 3979 9709 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Baerg

020 
WWUS53 KTOP 160015
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
715 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

KSC201-160030-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-170616T0030Z/
Washington-
715 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

At 714 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Washington,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported quarter size 2 miles 
         southwest of Washington at 711 PM. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Washington and Morrowville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 9716 3986 9722 3991 9706 3973 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 250DEG 13KT 3980 9707 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Baerg

526 
WWUS53 KTOP 160021
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
721 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

KSC201-160030-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-170616T0030Z/
Washington-
721 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3972 9716 3986 9722 3991 9706 3973 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 250DEG 13KT 3981 9705 

$$

Baerg

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 15, 6:34 PM CDT, 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 6:34 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
634 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

AS OF 1830Z THE PESKY UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO
REMAIN STATIONARY. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED
FROM SOUTHWESTERN KS INTO NORTHEASTERN NE. SURFACE ANALYSIS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HAS REVEALED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD. LOW TO MIDDLE 70 DEW POINTS RESIDE ACROSS MOST
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. 15 JUNE 2017 1800Z KTOP
SOUNDING REVEALS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN APPROX
3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE OUTLOOK
AREA SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO 50 J/KG OF ML INHIBITION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. RADAR ANALYSIS AS OF 1830Z REVEALS EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS, KANSAS. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE Though THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
DISCRETE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS. MEAN LAYER
FLOW IS TOWARDS THE ESE AT 25-35 MPH. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR (0-3 KM) NEAR 40-50 KNOTS, ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MCS
WOULD SUGGEST BOWING SEGMENTS. THESE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WINDS UPWARDS OF 80+ MPH. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR LARGE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE LIFE CYCLE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA NEAR 05Z
THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM potential, HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH TODAY. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 105.

A SECONDARY COLD WILL HAVE ALIGN TOMORROW EVENING WITH SIMILAR
ORIENTATION AS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A MOIST BL WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO HEAT INDICIES APPROACHING 100 BY THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z. THEREFORE,
REFER TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Run to run model consistency overall continues to suggest Friday
night and Saturday night will see more rounds of convection and
precip.  Small scale details may be dependent on the exact outcome
of convection outflows from Thursday.  That being the case, Friday
night a subtle wave is progged to provide upper forcing for storms to
develop in the late afternoon and early evening time frame over
portions of eastern and southeastern Nebraska into northeastern KS.
As a result, height falls with steep mid level lapse rates will
overspread plenty of instability at the surface.  It will again be
possible, with around 40kts of 0-6km deep layer shear, to see
discrete storms develop initially and then quickly grow upscale
into another MCS feature that should move into portions of
northeastern KS. The focus for storm development will still be
north of I-70 with greatest potential in far northeast KS near the
NE/KS/MO border region.

Saturday night, models continue to prog a stronger wave which is
expected to dig into the Northern and Central Plains.  Stronger mid
level flow will advect atop an active cold front and help to develop
a surface low over south central NE into north central KS region.
This low will quickly deepen and move to the northeast and drag the
cold front into northeastern KS by evening on Saturday.  Instability
combined with deep shear on the order of around 40-50kts will likely
bring storm chances ahead and along the front some of which could be
severe.  This front should quickly push southeast before stalling
out.  Post frontal showers could linger overnight into portions of
Sunday morning.

Latter part of the weekend looks mainly dry with small precip
chances coming off and on by mid week as the upper level pattern
once again becomes more zonal.

Temps during the period still remain hot into the 90s on Friday and
Saturday with heat indices of over 100 degrees likely especially
along and south of I-70.  Temps cool into the 80s by Friday for a
couple days of relief before climbing back into the 90s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Line of storms moving through MHk and continuing through TOP and
FOE. Expect VFR cigs with the storms but vsbys should be reduced
into the mvfr and briefly ifr categories through 03Z. After 03Z
expecting vfr conditions at the terminals through the end of the
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...53

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 15, 3:39 PM CDT, 3 hours 8 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
339 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
339 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the entire outlook area
this afternoon through tonight. By early this afternoon, discrete
supercells will likely develop across central Kansas before
congealing into a complex of storms as it advances into eastern
Kansas. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging
straight-line winds, with some very large hail and possibly even a
few tornadoes possible with the initial discrete storms over
central Kansas. These thunderstorms should gradually diminish over
eastern Kansas overnight tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon and
evening hours of both Friday and Saturday. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary hazards.

Peak heat indices of 100 to 105 are forecast for much of the area
Friday and Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 15, 4:26 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
426 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             CULVER                  38.97N 97.76W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BD

Local storm report, Jun 15, 4:57 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
457 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             4 ENE ADA               39.17N 97.82W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMB

Local storm report, Jun 15, 5:28 PM CDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
528 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE NILES              38.96N 97.46W
06/15/2017  E60 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH THIS STORM. ALL
            ITEMS OUTSIDE BLOWN AROUND.

&&

BD

Local storm report, Jun 15, 5:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE CARLTON           38.67N 97.26W
06/15/2017  E60 MPH          DICKINSON          KS   PUBLIC

            LOST POWER AND WIND WAS GETTING STRONGER.

&&

BD

Local storm report, Jun 15, 6:07 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N HOPE                38.73N 97.08W
06/15/2017  E70 MPH          DICKINSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 14, 10:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Jackson	28 min
Jun 14, 11:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Jefferson, Shawnee	34 min
Jun 15, 12:56 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Douglas	34 min
Jun 15, 1:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Douglas	31 min
Jun 15, 1:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Franklin	29 min
Jun 15, 4:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Ottawa	39 min
Jun 15, 4:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Dickinson, Geary, Morris	51 min
Jun 15, 4:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Ottawa, Riley	46 min
Jun 15, 5:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Cloud, Riley	46 min
Jun 15, 5:42 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Dickinson, Morris	33 min
Jun 15, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley and 1 more	60 min
Jun 15, 6:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TOP	Geary, Morris, Wabaunsee	21 min
Jun 15, 6:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Pottawatomie, Riley	32 min
Jun 15, 6:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Coffey, Geary, Lyon, Morris, Osage, Shawnee and 1 more	50 min
Jun 15, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Pottawatomie, Riley	21 min
Jun 15, 6:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Pottawatomie, Riley, Wabaunsee	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.